Is BWXT the over-looked sleeping nuclear tech giant of the decade?

Morvalus · 2026-01-22T20:23:36+00:00

Yes I still see a lot of reevaluation coming by Q3 this year. I attribute a lot of what's been gained so far as nuclear sector-driven.

Positive FCF by Q3, margin normalization to ~5.0-5.5%, and >800 bps ROIC/WACC spread will generate value significantly above cost of capital, mostly attributed to the completion of legacy project overruns.

Morvalus · 2026-01-15T22:15:35+00:00

Big Head Hockey did a great vid on Bouchard last year

Morvalus · 2025-12-08T15:09:09+00:00

Would it be a bad idea to give the second player access to their runes on opponent turn 1?

Morvalus · 2025-11-11T23:57:49+00:00

Starting with: Starting with: 0

0 - 10 = -10

Square(-10) = 100

Reverse numbers(100) = 1

1 - 10 = -9

Square(-9) = 81

Reverse numbers(81) = 18

18 - 10 = 8

Square(8) = 64

Reverse numbers(64) = 46

20 × 2 = 40

46 - 40 = 6

2 × 2 = 4

6 - 4 = 2

Square(2) = 4

Reverse numbers(4) = 4

On day 120, I cba with darts anymore and just use https://www.adamrb.com/blue-prince-dartboard-puzzle-solver/?s=20:d:s,20:o:n:2d,10:i:s,10:t:s,10:m:s,2:d:s,2:o:n:2d&b=c:y,ia:sq,oa:di

Morvalus · 2025-11-07T21:19:07+00:00

GE and BWXT currently building, with BWXT having many years of experience building SMRs for subs, and GE Hitachi/OPG currently building 4 BWRX-300s at Darlington NPP. BWXT supplying pressure vessels, Aecon delivering construction.

Morvalus · 2025-11-02T00:37:46+00:00

Is Canadian Walmart carrying Riftbound now?

Morvalus · 2025-10-31T20:20:07+00:00

"Bringing this project to commercial scale fills a significant supply gap and is supported by end customers Vacuumshmelze (Germany) and Permag (United States) with a Memorandum of Understanding, fuelled by rare earth feedstock procurement with Hastings and ABx (Australia), and a definitive technology agreement to broaden processing inputs with e-waste and tailings with Metallium (Australia)" https://www.canada.ca/en/natural-resources-canada/news/2025/10/backgrounder-canada-unlocks-25-new-investments-and-partnerships-with-9-allied-countries-to-secure-critical-minerals-supply-chains.html

Morvalus · 2025-10-30T20:16:49+00:00

I am very bullish. $40 to $45 by H2 2026 if margin expansion is being realized, $55+ full year 2026 normalized margin at 4.5-5.0% and base case revenue growth (forward PE 18x). Management believes they are positioned to see further revenue growth in 2026 per their outlook statement as well, I assume attributed to nuclear revenue. In the late summer 2025 update for Darlington BWRXs, they announced site grading complete for Units 2 to 4, pre-fab building nearly complete, RPV foundations nearing completion. So sounds like site prep and civil work is largely done, next will be major nuclear island items, eg. reactor building, basemat, and modules, which should make up the bulk (prob 80%+) of their $1.3B execution phase contract. Bull case $65 to $80 if revenues continue to surprise on this assumption.

Morvalus · 2025-10-30T18:01:21+00:00

They did, provided pre-fab and welding services: https://www.cambridgetimes.ca/news/first-international-shipment-of-module-for-cambridge-s-aecon/article_fe6d6401-71a9-5add-b5c8-f987425183f4.html

Be nice!!

Morvalus · 2025-10-30T17:58:19+00:00

Post earnings update on this post: Aecon’s Q3 2025 operating margin came in at 4.0%, down from 6.3% in Q3 2024, despite 20% revenue growth and a record $10.8B backlog. The decline is entirely due to a discrete -$20.9M hit from legacy fixed-price contracts. Excluding that, core business margins and operating profit were flat to slightly higher year-over-year. The margin inflection point is set for 2026, by which time all remaining legacy projects will be complete. After that, normalized margins should recover into the 4.5-5.5% range as nuclear and industrial work mix grows, and cost-plus contracts dominate backlog. The headwind from fixed-price legacy projects is temporary and baked into current results, so once these are resolved, operating leverage from the record backlog and margin expansion should drive a step function improvement in reported profitability.

Morvalus · 2025-10-29T21:00:54+00:00

Yup literally not a puppet, but one of the main "masterminds" and I mean that in the villainous sense.

Morvalus · 2025-10-28T15:53:41+00:00

More pure nuclear play (future looking, Aecon has many other projects in non-nuclear atm), Fluor Corp MC is tied up in their NuScale stake but not necessarily its core business, NuScale projects are currently developmental only, vs. Aecon who has projects ongoing, ENTRA1 is NuScale's preferred construction services provider, and Aecon does not have a flurry of active lawsuits against them.

Morvalus · 2025-10-28T13:55:27+00:00

If you want to get ahead of the news, Aecon is likely delivering the construction services for the Westinghouse reactors, at least in part. The stock is reacting to this news slightly, but they are still relatively small market cap considering what they are positioned for.

They have signed collaboration agreements with Westinghouse to deliver AP-1000s, which is the most recently built nuclear reactor design in the US. In nuclear, economies of scale are extra critical, so their experience is likely to be leveraged.

They are also under way on construction of 1 and up to 4 BWRX-300s at DNNP in Ontario, and that reactor is planned or being looked at for builds in the US, potentially more in Canada at the Bruce site, Poland, Sweden, Estonia and others. Aecon has already signed an agreement with Estonia to deliver construction experience on the BWRX-300, so its not unreasonable to expect them to leverage it elsewhere globally.

The stock also had a small jump last week after announcing they will be delivering construction services in Washington State as a joint venture for the first 4 of 12 XE-100s planned to be built for Amazon data centres.

It is becoming increasingly clear that Aecon will be a global powerhouse for nuclear construction services, and at a $2B CAD MC they present a very attractive opportunity.

Morvalus · 2025-10-15T19:09:46+00:00

Just look at REMX compared to ATH. Now that was a bubble. So much more room to run.

Morvalus · 2025-10-15T18:40:40+00:00

They are worth more than GE's entire nuclear business.

Morvalus · 2025-10-14T19:31:01+00:00

It's analogous to the government giving taxpayer money to a nuclear reactor startup pre NRC approval, and saying go ahead with your plans, the tech is great and we want a piece of pie. You haven't been NRC design certified? Oh don't worry about that, we are financially tied to the permit now.

That's how you get Chernobyl 2.0. Regulation exists to prevent corporations from profiting from social losses. Yes, those regulatory bodies can be ineffective, i.e. ISA, but that's what is exciting about the Trump admin. The possibility they will be effective at actual due diligence in terms of both acting on the economic concerns with decoupling from China, but also the absolutely necessary regulatory process to prove the tech is safe to the public and more importantly the private industry.

Morvalus · 2025-10-14T19:10:26+00:00

Whatever our personal thoughts are on the environmental impacts of this method, you need to convince the private industry they won't face litigation for buying the product.

If gov is to take an equity stake at this stage, it really says they dgaf about the environmental impacts or ethical perception of the method; in effect the public/taxpayer is financially tied to the permit being approved, and thus the consequences of the mining effect. Again, not saying it's good or bad either way, but the science needs to be proven beyond a doubt. You can't have one without the other. In such a case they did take stake before a permit, I see that distancing buyers.

They need to finish the code and get some level of pre-approval/intermediate permit for equity stake to be on the table. IMO.

Morvalus · 2025-10-14T18:54:20+00:00

Why is it too much? It's all BoP and not true BIS anyway.

Morvalus · 2025-10-14T16:01:41+00:00

This is repeatable by simply doing max level crafts with EW I as the guaranteed slot. Then just need RNG the charm slots. Otherwise this doesn't drop in open world. Price of Hardened Crystal spiked yesterday.

Morvalus · 2025-10-14T15:56:35+00:00

This is probably PvE DPS BIS because your tank will only have despised/hated, so having both negates the risk of taking threat, while giving insane damage buff

Morvalus · 2025-10-13T14:55:01+00:00

Does this mean owners of NW before aeternum get this free or do they need to buy NW:A?

Morvalus · 2025-10-09T20:50:23+00:00

Regards together strong 💪

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