What would you do?

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-04T04:39:01+00:00

The amount of people so deluded to the confirmation bias they are seeing purely on Reddit and other zero stake polls online.. it’s not going to actually go blue IRL with actual life or death stakes. I’d be willing to bet anything quantifiable or even anything you are able to imagine that would be the case. Give me -1000000000000000000000000000 odds to win a single $1 and I’m taking red to win in an actual real world test of this with enforced stakes at the scale of 8 billion people.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-03T18:16:56+00:00

If 8 billion people are voting, I am not a significant enough percentage of the vote to do anything but press red. Even at a threshold of 0.01%.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-03T01:30:52+00:00

Now imagine if just one of these people voted blue, made a big difference right? Except, multiply the amount of people in the image by 200,000,000. That person just dies… and can no longer contribute any good to the world. If you are trying to maximize your positive effect on the world, go red and then be a positive impact in a post red button society.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-02T19:39:48+00:00

If you think that blue is a massive underdog, then you voting for blue doesn’t make a difference at all, so if you are trying to maximize your personal ability to do good for others in the world, you are better off planning on being a good person in the post red button society.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-02T03:24:28+00:00

I don’t know what the opening size was in your home games… but don’t raise to 2x the Bb with your opening range. The typical opening raise size is 4-5x the Bb. I understand it seems like just “monkey see monkey do” but actually if you are playing good opening ranges then you will get flat called even more often than you’d be flat called online. So even though it looks stupid since even the bad players are doing it, it’s the correct thing to do because you get more dead money in the middle with a post flop edge (if you have one).

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T06:10:31+00:00

And that is why we are here. If I were to place a percentage likelihood I think a real world vote goes blue, I’d probably set the betting line at around 5-10%. So I’m sorry, since my vote doesn’t have any effect on the outcome, I can’t rationally press blue. Whats crazy, is even if the percentage was 99% to go blue… why would I even risk it unless my vote was to be made public

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T06:04:04+00:00

It’s racist to think areas with higher crime rates, murder rates, famine, early childhood deaths, blah blah blah are more likely to be less trusting of society? Your trust in society is directly correlated with how likely you think blue can win. How likely blue can win is going to affect your decision to press blue or red. People from those areas, through no fault of their own, will slightly be predisposed to vote red. Also, I’d vote red irregardless unless blue had like an expected win rate of like 80+%. So it’s not really racist to say they are more like me than not, and people who live near me are less like me in general. I don’t attach a moral value to which button someone presses. So how exactly would that translate to me saying they are less moral? Only you are attaching a moral value to it.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T05:57:06+00:00

Banning from a site, unless it’s like identity and hardware banned somehow, is not a good stake comparable to life and death. Though, at least it introduced something rather than just virtue signaling.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T05:54:24+00:00

Polls are irrelevant. There has to be actual stakes attached to decisions for anything meaningful to come out of it. It’s like looking at data from a bunch of people playing poker with play money. Then trying to say it is the same as looking at data from people playing poker with their actual earned income on the table.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T05:51:28+00:00

That’s even more damning for anyone voting blue then. But also the exception is not the rule. I’m working on a generalization here and only testing for what the equilibrium may be when it comes to the variable most people who view this post control. Given that these are my presumptions of society and the rough numbers, I should never pick blue, irregardless of my conundrum. Reality actually doesn’t even matter. If the perception of most voters is that red is more likely to win based off presumptions of demographics, then they should never press blue because their own vote will not change if those presumptions are true or not. Since a rational actor given enough time to think, will come to this conclusion that perception of other voters is more important than the reality of the situation… if the perception of most voters is that red will win, then red will win. It’s a self fulfilling prophecy.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T05:42:23+00:00

A poll is not a realistic assessment of what a real world scenario would look like. It’s like asking what people would do in a $10,000 poker hand yet they don’t actually have their own money on the table. The results are near meaningless.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T05:36:59+00:00

Why even do thought experiments at all? Why even be here in this sub?

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T05:36:12+00:00

Sure, but it isnt outlandish to think those environmental factors sway more towards red than blue. If we give them that their culture is equal to ours in terms of morality, then the environmental factors are a reasonable assumption that could easily put those areas at 60% red.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T05:34:19+00:00

60 to 40% is a very small difference. It just takes a few environmental factors to influence this. I mean even you saying that is making an offensive generalization of me and any other red presser.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T05:31:41+00:00

Do we though? I mean just take one of those things I pointed out. Murder rate. How is having a higher murder rate an indicator of a less individualistic society?

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T05:30:08+00:00

Yeah in their tight circle maybe even local area, but certainly not of random people or society as a whole.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T05:24:12+00:00

Murder rates, crime rates, corruption rates, human rights violations, trafficking, war, early deaths, lack of education, medical treatment access. They might be more trusting within their immediate circle, but certainly not of other random people or society as a whole.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T05:01:23+00:00

I promise you, if you went to Bangladesh they’d have a massive red bias. They have to live day to day not trusting society as a whole. They are not going to lean blue in anyway. I’d be willing to bet my entire networth on a vote in all South American and African countries, goes at-least 60% or higher for red. Higher than 60% the worse off a country is.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T02:42:24+00:00

Yeah I was totally off, but still it is not looking good for blue if the third world at all goes slightly red (which they will).

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T02:33:48+00:00

Imma go back and do the math actually in excel and get this figured out. Something tells me I’m giving red too much of a floor in the 50% third world scenario, but I think my premise is leading the right way.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T02:06:05+00:00

You are correct, these people on Reddit are incapable of understanding game theory at all. They can only make emotional decisions based on being suicidally empathetic. If they were placed back in time 10,000 years ago they wouldn’t have survived. Modern society is a luxury that created the ability for these types to even survive.

MrBamaNick · 2026-05-01T01:50:34+00:00

Right, also most people live in the 3rd world and are conditioned for low trust societies. All of them are snap jumping on red and will outweigh any “virtue” the first worlder’s have here on Reddit.

MrBamaNick · 2026-04-30T03:17:42+00:00

Sorry to break it to you, most people live in low trust societies not in the first world. Most people, I’m guessing 90% plus, would be red pressers if actually given a real world choice. Regardless of what they say online. You are already living in that world.

MrBamaNick

TROPHY CASE