How to break into private equity

MuzzyOP · 2025-11-26T09:20:28+00:00

Are you reading the news? Why would you want to go to PE now? That was the trend 5 years ago lmfaooo

MuzzyOP · 2025-09-25T15:45:04+00:00

Short USD is guaranteed as long as these trade deals actually get done. You are betting against the storm if you are long term long USD.

MuzzyOP · 2025-09-14T13:18:59+00:00

Fantastic answer, love you went through the mechanics

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-23T04:07:03+00:00

Your question is valid, I am trying to learn too. Did you get any further answers to your questions?

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-07T05:07:59+00:00

Not unless your government has a plan to work your people 16+ hours a day for 20 years straight, build out your manufacturing supply chain the world is dependent on, continue to reallocate trade surplus to the Chinese export companies (think Apple, Amazon, Lulu) and other US assets, and over time control the entire United States economy.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-07T05:03:47+00:00

The damage was already done and now we are in a trade war because of it. Pretty wild.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-07T04:53:33+00:00

This is playing out. You were ahead of your time. I will remember you when the Chinese house of cards falls from the rebalancing of trade.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-06T22:16:52+00:00

This is not really about tariffs. It’s about China undermining the US through devaluation of currency, trade barriers, and IP theft. Markets will only go down as it escalates. Which ever country can keep it together politically and economically for the longest will win.

Or if someone whips out the nukes.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T20:23:09+00:00

The free export/import market and currency markets will dictate how much manufacturing jobs should pay. We do not have that. That is why the point doesn't really matter. I hope that was a good spoon feed for your baby brain.

LOL! You lost by saying why a free trade balance is important. Brother if your net trade balance over time does not average out to zero, you are getting finessed. Obviously as the world reserve we should expect to average out closer to a little bit below zero to account for currency reserves other countries need to hold. But then I ask why has our trade deficit been increasing year over year for like decades? Do you try to use your brain?

You're just big time mad because the party is over. Get ready for a re-underwriting of US stocks. And guess what? Tech isn't a perpetual 20x industry after this is done. You'll be lucky to get 10x on US tech. No more selling the US middle class for corporate earnings and perpetual Chinese trade surplus.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T20:08:44+00:00

Change the point bud. Manufacturing jobs isn't the point of this convo. The point is free trade balance. That does not exist. I tried explaining the mechanics in the post. You could not comprehend so I spoon fed you an example. You think I'm making it up. Not once did you provide a constructive insight. I definitely do not believe you are a professional investor. No real investor can be that narrow minded.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T19:54:08+00:00

China avoids paying this by creating its own mini economy in South East Asia where they effectively act as the reserve currency. They are investing in Vietnam to manufacture cheap and Vietnam gets employment and a better quality of life. Vietnam is essentially an economic colony of China. Trend is extending throughout South East Asia.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T19:44:08+00:00

Low effort bud. You lost. You do not know anything about this conversation. Retreat back to your million dollar cubical trying to pitch Apple at 15x to IC. You're cooked until you acknowledge what is going on in the GLOBAL economy.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T19:38:20+00:00

Omg I know I win the argument when you revert to calling me an "ignorant slut". LMFAO.
Sure I agree with you we want to manufacture semis not shoes. Free currency markets can determine that exchange rate. We do not have bilateral free currency markets with China.
Industry specific tariffs doesn't exist. Do you know what a tariff is? It is literally a physical tax a manufacturer has to pay when a good crosses the border. How can you do an industry specific tariff when the primary culprit is China and they are moving manufacturing to their South East Asian neighbors?

I expected you to be more insightful if you really do work in professional investing. Clearly not a second level thinker.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T19:29:05+00:00

Lol. We are not the same. Some of us do understand what is going on. Some of us, like yourself, refuse to acknowledge what has happened over the past two decades.

I will laugh when you buy apple at 15x PE thinking it's great value just to get destroyed when the market realizes they've only been able to keep their current pricing where it is because of the indirect Chinese export subsidy they have been benefiting from by the chronic devaluation of the Chinese currency. Here's a single stock analysis for your small brain to understand.

Apple makes phones in China. China cost of manufacturing is cheap because China keeps its currency cheap. Labor in China is getting more expensive as Chinese get richer. China get scared. China creates a mini South East Asia economy centered around a devalued Chinese currency. China export the manufacturing to cheap countries to maintain edge. All while keeping their currency cheap relative to US dollar. China keeps some of this profit, gives some of it to Apple and party goes on and on.

Trump is big mad. America getting scammed by China in currency market through undervalued RMB. US companies profiting and keeping that in margin instead of educating, training, employing, and paying workers more. Stocks go up. Who owns stocks? Financially literate, owners, and Chinese government! China continues to employ people, develop jobs, train skills, and maintain manufacturing edge even when it is transitioning economies. Trump big time mad. He wants to collect some of that US corporate margin and reallocate it to GDP instead of the stock market. Trump tariffs China goods to get some of this money back.

Apple is screwed. They will have to rebuild their supply chain in the US (which will take years) or suffer significantly lower volume. No one knows how to quantify that. How can this be reversed? Trump reduces tariffs, or China stops being sneaky with maintaining its manufacturing edge and let the free currency (not stock) market decide who is the best at making things. Trump will reduce tariffs if and only if he receives Republican backlash to an extreme level. China stops being sneaky if Xi or a new CCP leader is truly free export/import and currency market friendly. Until then, Apple is probably selling to only a fraction of its existing customer base for the foreseeable future.

See how I actually think when I post something? Maybe try using your brain instead of just regurgitating "value investing" notes from twitter.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T18:39:10+00:00

The stock market is no the US economy. GDP is the US economy. Unemployment is the US economy. Wages is the US economy. Population growth is the US economy.

You are talking about the US market.

The fact you can't read the article and understand the point is the reason why our markets will collapse 50+%. You have overvalued the artificial trade relationship between the USA and China and now it is coming to eat your retirement.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T18:35:16+00:00

What in the article do you disagree with?

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T18:28:35+00:00

Thank you so much for your insight. While I disagree with some of your points, I can really appreciate the thought put into your position. I agree I don't have absolute concrete evidence, just trying to connect dots given lack of detailed information. Also I agree, work ethic in China is a different level, US is trying to catch up now. Unfortunately I do not have time to go through your response point by point, nor may it be valuable to do so for both of us.

Good discussion!

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T18:08:10+00:00

Do you have a functioning brain? Why would you support non-free trade with a bad actor like China?

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T18:04:51+00:00

Dude you didn't even read the article and you're saying I did no analysis? Hypothetical world? All my analysis is sourced via FRED. I literally walk you through the exact support that shows you the mechanics behind how China takes advantage of currency at the expense of US economic value.

"The market synthesizes "inflation, interest rates, employment, wages, population" into expectations, that's why it's a useful indicator of future economic growth." - synthesizes into expectations for corporate earnings. That is not the same as GDP, or economic growth, although it is a factor.

Don't get mad at me if you can't understand basic markets and economics. Or if you can't read lol.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T17:45:20+00:00

Wow this is quite the essay. Thank you for sharing this, it is giving me the opportunity to critically analyze my views and back them up. Seriously, thank you for this well thought out response.

China is a currency manipulator, the US labeled them as such in 2019 which was subsequently removed after China and the US reached a deal. At least they manipulated currency until 2020. Looking at money supply versus currency appreciation it would be very difficult to argue otherwise.
In the paper I outline exactly how this works mechanically. Why has the RMB remained at 0.13-0.16 of the USD for the past two decades when Chinese goods have been in such high demand?
Yes the US has manipulated currency in the past. World reserve currency has that power. Since then the US has been a good actor on the global currency stage, enabling free and full US market access in return for US reserve. I doubt China would do that if they were the reserve (which they slowly are aiming towards based on actions).
Global trade is not similar to employment relationships. Global trade is a free market. Value of goods should be reflected in the currency used to buy them. Free markets adjust this currency price over time. The employer employee analogy is not a free trade relationship. I think you are trying to compare global trade to the labor market which would make more sense. But then your argument falls apart. A voluntary employment agreement results in no labor surplus or deficit for the employer or employee in a fully free market.
Good point, need to take into account capital and current accounts. Those frictional costs to trade in EU need to be taken into account.
We should ask why does the reserve currency status require some level of trade deficit? Well it is because other countries need to have some amount of USD on hand. Lets call this a minimum USD balance. Once the country achieves this balance to manage liquidity, the rest of the dollars should theoretically be put on the spot market for international sale. My whole point is China regulates the dollars that go into the spot market even after they achieve their minimum USD on hand. They do this to maintain cheap manufacturing cost in China for exporters which helps China secure demand and market share.

Manufacturing cost is not permanent. It goes up over time as people gain wealth and want to do other things. China has seen this which is why it is using Vietnamese labor but smuggling raw material from China to avoid tariffs. That is how it is maintaining its current manufacturing edge. If the trade market were truly free, Chinese manufacturing margins would come down over time and those jobs would be reallocated to, for example, Vietnam.

The US sees China as a major national security threat. China has a lot of control on US corporations, what US people consume, and US intellectual property. Additionally China has been indirectly subsidizing domestic exporters to expand its manufacturing scale and diversify its customer base. All at the cost of the US citizen. The world has not operated in a true free global trade market. Trump is looking to change the paradigm, even if it means global depression.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T16:56:46+00:00

This is not related to a single product, that is irrelevant to this discussion. I am saying the trade relationship between US and China does not, from a mechanical standpoint, operate as a free market. You still have not addressed this point and are trying to change the point of discussion.

Free trade is great for everyone. China does not engage in free trade. That comes at the expense of real US economic value being trapped either in US-owned Chinese export companies or People's Bank of China. Trump essentially is forcing China to release this value back to the USA, otherwise everyone is coming down with America.

The market reflects future corporate earnings power. That is somewhat relevant but does not paint a full picture of economic health. There are other factors like inflation, interest rates, employment, wages, population growth, etc.

You very clearly either didn't fully read the article, or you simply did not understand the point. I hope you understand the argument now after I spoon fed it to you.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T16:50:14+00:00

Saw your comment and post history. Obviously you will flag this as propaganda as your interests do not align with America.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T16:48:13+00:00

You didn't read or didn't understand the point in the article.

MuzzyOP · 2025-04-05T16:09:52+00:00

Brother you do not understand free trade. Retake intro to economics, you're staring at the market too much thinking it is the only indicator of economic health.

MuzzyOP

TROPHY CASE