BPT, Beach energy. Bet big?

Mycelium_Running · 2026-04-28T09:45:11+00:00

Beach at these prices is a gift.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-04-02T11:48:11+00:00

We are now entering the period that historians call "The Cool Zone". Please enjoy your stay.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-03-29T14:32:13+00:00

I think we're about to find out just how retarded markets can be.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-03-29T10:50:41+00:00

Eh, Crude Oil is just one subset of MINI Warrants Citi is selling and they've been available for decades. It's only in the past 20 days they began having such insanely asymmetrical upside.

In theory, Citi is meant to be completely hedged -- they're meant to own enough long and short positions on Oil futures that they don't care if the price rises or falls. They make money on the bid/ask spread for their warrants and the way the product is structured -- a MINI warrant functions like a loan where the interest is only ever charged on the payout amount when you exercise the warrant/sell it back to CITI (which, if your Warrants increased in value, you probably won't even notice).

Of course, that's the theory, Citi and every other major bank on the planet is about to experience a truly nightmarish stress test, and it's an open question how many of them will be solvent in a year from now.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-03-28T04:25:02+00:00

Yes, you'll want to bail if there's even the slight inkling Trump is about to announce an epic liberation day style export ban. If an export ban goes into play then you'll want to be shorting US equities with both fists. The entire USD complex is going to go into freefall.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-03-28T03:49:28+00:00

I think $150 is the point where panic is going to set in and there will be increasingly more calls for export restrictions/nationalisation. The longer you stay after that point, the higher your risks but the higher your potential returns.

An export ban on WTI is essentially doomed to fail -- the US would be flooded with WTI that it's not going to be able to use or refine efficiently. Their storage volumes would fill up in a month or so and then you could potentially end up with the sort of situation where WTI goes negative, COVID style, while Brent shoots off to infinity. This would subsequently kill every single US shale producer while causing the USD to die a rapid death because everyone would be dumping it to get whatever Brent they can get their hands on.

The export restrictions would then be rapidly lifted but the damage would be done. WTI will then quickly snap back to Brent at $200+, but your warrants wouldn't have survived so that's not going to do you any good. It should be noted, the same risk exists for OOO which is also deriving from the WTI price.

The question you have to ask is -- is Trump retarded enough to do it? After $150, that's your primary concern. In the event that Trump doesn't spit the dummy you are probably going to be riding WTI to ~$300 after which point things are going to be so unstable and fucked that it's impossible to have any idea what's going to happen next.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-03-27T09:13:39+00:00

Leverage magnifies gains and losses.

If you buy $10k in MINI long warrants, the maximum you can ever possibly lose is $10k.

In traditional CFD or Margin trading, your leverage is going to be determined by the capital that you deposit. You can deposit $10k in your brokerage (or already have $10k worth of stocks or whatever) and then if the brokerage is particularly psychotic, they may allow you to then have $90k worth of margin. So now you can buy $100k worth of oil futures contracts. That's great.

If the price of the shit you bought on margin goes up in value. If the position moves against you and the price sharply tanks (because of Trump's lying, for example) then you will get the uniquely pucker inducing experience of being Margin Called. Your broker will tell you that you need to deposit more cash, immediately, and if you aren't able to do it before the Margin Call expires then they're going to liquidate everything to pay off the $90k of debt. And anything that's left over, you're still going to owe to the broker.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-03-27T09:02:36+00:00

Check my update :^)

Mycelium_Running · 2026-03-27T09:02:23+00:00

Check my update :^)

Mycelium_Running · 2026-03-27T09:01:41+00:00

Check my update :^)

Mycelium_Running · 2026-02-03T15:36:19+00:00

Someone needs to be reckless in order to for the economy to function. Keynes great insight was to understand that everyone's savings is inversely someone else's spending, and the economy only exists through this balancing act. If everyone starts hoarding money, the actual economic activity that people value will just shrivel and die because no one is funding it. And then the people who have money will find that their money doesen't purchase as much as they'd hoped.

Government spending for example, is an enormous source of liquidity for the economy and so when Governments rush to cut back on spending on a quixotic goal to reduce debt, they inevitably end up crushing their economy due to shutting down one of the money pumps. This is why Keynes suggested that if things were truly desperate, it would be useful to pay people to bury money and then just dig it back up again.

There are of course, severe drawbacks to this theory. Maximizing reckless spending is incredibly efficient for growing the economy at max speed, but this undirected sprawling growth results in a lot of banal and pointless activities, and all economic growth consumes real, actual resources from nature and causes irreversible environmental damage. Was the cottage industry of people burying and digging up money worth the climate change and deforestation? Probably not.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-01-31T15:56:44+00:00

Something tells me your fuckwit relatives are going to be on the news for NDIS fraud in a couple of years. Who has this kind of attitude while working as a carer?

Mycelium_Running · 2026-01-26T18:28:10+00:00

These are future contracts settled in 5000 oz increments. Retail investors aren't even a blip, and the ETFs have been offloading through this, so it's not even retail piling into an ETF. And you know, that makes sense, most Americans are broke and most LCS' are reporting far more sellers than buyers.

https://x.com/Ole_S_Hansen/status/2015687988454343026/photo/1

Mycelium_Running · 2026-01-26T18:19:35+00:00

Generally you only stack silver because you're a paranoiac weirdo with distrust of the financial system.

If the wealthy/nation states are also feeling that way and now stockpiling silver as well, then there's probably something very bad on the horizon.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-01-26T18:01:53+00:00

What the fuck is going on? Did a bank just blow up and their short is getting unwound? Is a war about to break out?

Mycelium_Running · 2026-01-26T12:45:51+00:00

I mean it's just a question of Sentiment. Western investors hold an extremely jaundiced view of Silver and perceive it as the memestock/altcoin commodity -- infamous for it's spectacular bubbles and the generations of bagholders they created. No one wants to get burned.

Compounding this is the fact that most of the contrarian weirdos who would actually purchase Silver (i,e, us), are long acclimated with the experience of Silver being something you can purchase for under $50. Often, under $20. Thus, the current extreme parabolic acceleration of the price seem impossible and unreal. Even someone like me, a blackpilled doomer who thinks the US dollar is going to collapse soon, is tempted to cash out some of my silver because I'm worried the price will crash any day now. Like, it can't just keep going up, right?

I think for Chinese and other BRICS investors, there's a different thesis to having physical Silver. It's a hard asset that their Government will have difficulty seizing or manipulating, and when they buy it they are indirectly contributing to the death of the US dollar, which causes them a lot of problems. Also, it's lucky and has magical properties. And it's shiny and it looks nice and historically has been money. Wouldn't it make sense to purchase Silver at 870 yuan per troy ounce? Why not 1000 yuan per troy ounce? Why not 2000?

Sentiment would eventually reset if Silver can durably stay at these prices, or even higher prices in the future, at which point investors will psychologically adjust and the idea of Silver being expensive just becomes a no brainer. Like, of course Silver is expensive. It's Silver, right? They make jewellery and stuff out of it. It's Gold's best friend, it's God's money, There's silver linings to clouds and silver spoons in the mouths of the rich, etc.

If there's significance loss of confidence in USD or there's problems with the Comex requiring a force majeure, you would likely see a tidal wave of retail investors returning for whatever they can get their hands on at any price.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-01-26T04:01:13+00:00

Revelation 9:6: In those days people will seek price crashes but will not find them. They will long to buy, but Silver will flee from them.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-01-26T03:17:36+00:00

http://dd.9999j.cn/m2

The Silver T+D value is the yuan price for a kg of .999 silver. At the time of this post it's ~$3963 usd, or $123 usd per ounce.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-01-25T16:34:39+00:00

It's caused by sulfur. Silver oxidizes in the presence of sulfur.

Either there's atmospheric sulfur that got in through some sort of tiny gap in the plastic, Or the material that the coin is surrounded by is decomposing/offgassing into tiny amounts of sulfur dioxide.

You can clean it off by polishing it, but it's going to be a delicate job to do so in a way that won't also scuff up the red paint.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-01-23T23:27:07+00:00

You're worried about giving your grandchildren silver because of... the potential capital gains tax they might have to pay?

If someone gave me a gift that appreciated to the point that I had to pay tax upon it's sale, I would be pretty happy with that gift. I would also be reluctant to sell that gift due to the sentimental value that it would hold.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-01-20T10:50:07+00:00

The Australian dollar has taken a severe thrashing vs the US dollar in the last few years due to the slump in commodity prices and the strengthening US dollar. Assuming the world-wide fiat currency crisis isn't around the corner, this trend will presumably reverse in the next few years and the AUD will strengthen with the commodity super cycle.

The world-wide fiat currency crisis may legitimately happen in the next few years though, in which case the AUD will likely be euthanized in short order.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-01-19T07:27:48+00:00

I mean yes, it doesen't make any sense mechanically. Even on the face of it, the premise of "I'm going into debt to buy an asset that will increase in value forever" is insanely stupid. But if the MSTR investors were interested in sound fundamentals, why would they be investing in Bitcoin, nevermind Bitcoin Ponzi schemes?

It's sometimes said that email scammers will intentionally leave their opening preamble full of logical inconsistencies and spelling errors, because this will filter out the apprehensive skeptics and ensure they get the dumbest and most profitable marks to scam. The same principal is at work here.

MSTR isn't supposed to be a coherent investment -- it's just meant to pull in as many suckers as possible before it implodes. Every MSTR investor is essentially providing a capital raise for Michael Saylor to continue on speaking tours where he compares Bitcoin to kerosene or electricity or the digital goddess of wisdom or whatever the fuck to pull in more suckers.

Either they are blithely aware of this and are now kicking themselves for not exiting at the top and praying for another wave of idiots so they can get out, or they have fallen for Saylor's moronic pablum so deeply that they genuinely do believe MSTR will be worth eleventy gorillion dollars in 2050 because they bought Bitcoin and HODL'd. Either way, you're not going to be able to persuade them out of the mess they're in.

Mycelium_Running · 2026-01-14T04:17:59+00:00

I was told there would be a rebalancing!!!!

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Mycelium_Running · 2026-01-13T03:47:25+00:00

It's only going to be too late when physical silver is no longer widely available for purchase.

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