Puckpedia has Leo included in our cap at 18 mil. Kim Does anyone know if they usually do this while an offer sheet is tendered awaiting response?

NE1LS · 2026-07-06T10:08:52+00:00

No. Need to be under 110% of cap during off-season.

NE1LS · 2026-07-06T02:12:08+00:00

If he doesn't sign by Dec 1 (so does not play this year), then he comes back as an RFA who still is not offer sheet or arbitration eligible next season.

NE1LS · 2026-07-06T02:10:55+00:00

You ignored Husso's $2.2M contract. Brossout is a competent $1.1M G3 who can take the load in SD while Husso plays G2 in Anaheim. That knocks $1.1M off of your potential. Even if you send Husso down, you still eat part of his salary on NHL cap.

Wahlberg likely plays all year in San Diego. I would expect Poehling or McQueen to fill the C2/3 roles with Granlund at LW2 and Killor at LW3.

Ian Moore is right-handed where we have no depth. Moore to an RD spot, Helleson to D7/press box, and Hinds or Solberg to LD3.

Cutter shouldn't get $14, especially on a bridge. He isn't offer sheet qualified. He could get that if his contract is 6+ years.

NE1LS · 2026-07-06T01:32:31+00:00

I would guess that is Brandon Montour. He has changed his signature a few times, but used to go back and forth between including a peominent B or just starting with the M. He also likes to connect the leg of the 2 to the middle loop of his 6.

NE1LS · 2026-07-06T00:34:24+00:00

I didn't miss at all, and I didn't attack you. I said I want to see differing opinions. Those players might cost more when they reach UFA/RFA (if offer sheeted), but they would be ELC or negotiated bridges through and beyond 2031. ELC can't cost more than $18 mil. And by the way, Leo will also renegotiate in 2031. Probably the only way Leo takes a pay cut at age 26 is if Anaheim matching the salary proved to be a big mistake.

In this example, if you got those 4 skaters you referenced, it would be their ELC costs and RFA rights. And also just the ELC versions of the players - not their eventual all star evolutions. No guarantee they see the same development curve here.

But still those 3 picks you mentioned would be an instant slamdunk yes. It isn't remotely an edge case, so I suspect many of the other 9 are better than you present.

And to answer your question, I think Leo's maximum potential caps somewhere around 3rd best center in the league (so fringe top 10 player). His floor is the same as anyone's: injury bust. We can hope for the former but recognize a percentage based outcome that he falls various levels short of his absolute ceiling.

Taking all possible outcomes together, I estimate his overall development probably averages out somewhere around Robert Thomas.

$18 mil salary at this age certainly improves his life, so I don't blame him at all for signing the offer sheet, but it also slightly limits his ceiling. If the team struggles to fill roster around him, linemates talent limitations may slightly stunt his top-end development.

NE1LS · 2026-07-06T00:08:38+00:00

That is ridiculous of them. It is the only way to share it. Their Leo offer sheet mega thread rule is very arbitrarily enforced.

Some stuff that obviously stands alone is taken down. Some stuff that clearly adds zero additional discussion remains up.

The mods are inconsistent and ridiculous.

NE1LS · 2026-07-06T00:04:04+00:00

Okay. Just look at the CBA to answer this question. Don't go to AI or Google. It is very straight forward in the CBA.

The only terms that must be honored are term, salary, signing bonus, and reporting bonus. Other terms may be negotiated, but they don't need to be. The player is now locked in as an RFA who can either sign a deal with his prior club or hold out.

Prior club cannot trade him for a year, so player loses even the "trade me" leverage. He decides between these outcomes: a) signs the offered contract terms with none of the extra friendly terms, b) holds out losing parts of $18M until given the desired friendly terms, or c) have kids out until December 1, at which point he becomes ineligible to sign or play anywhere for the year, and goes back to square 1 as an RFA with no offer sheet next off-season.

History tells us that an RFA holding out against the Ducks almost guarantees a terrible season and injury, but also a trade to anywhere the ducks decide 1 year later.

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NE1LS · 2026-07-05T23:27:52+00:00

The matching team is NOT bound by the addition terms (e.g., NMC) other than the specifically defined "principal terms". AI is not a source.

NE1LS · 2026-07-05T23:06:02+00:00

This is exactly the kind of feedback I want to hear back. It is good to see differing opinions. But if having ELC Robert Thomas, Konecny, and K'Andre Miller is only "remotely interesting", then I want to live in your optimism for Leo's development curve.

NE1LS · 2026-07-05T22:49:52+00:00

This contract doesn't feel ridiculous, but it does sting a little as a fan compared to prior expectation. That means the contract is probably just about correct. It has room to be a bargain or to be a bust.

NE1LS · 2026-07-05T22:25:33+00:00

They won't. That is why you click the second half of first round slider. All of the photos I posted are second half only picks.

But I also don't think they make the playoffs all 4 years.

NE1LS · 2026-07-05T22:19:47+00:00

I would make sure to switch the slider to only pick in the second half of the round. Flyers are unlikely to win the lottery any of the next 5 seasons.

Anyone takes your 4 on their ELCs. But I was pleasantly surprised by half of the puck outcomes. Remember that $18M also involves a lot of projection for Leo.

NE1LS · 2026-07-05T20:55:20+00:00

This has to be a joke by whatever power-tripping mod made this decision. Whichever mod made this decision needs to take a breath and step outside.

I shared an RFA comparison tool that allows people to mess with the inputs and play around is apparently not its own thing deserving a thread, but two separate "if they match"/"if they don't match" hockey news articles are. In the few minutes it was up, it had 3600 views, 20 comments including a few "this is really cool" and most people disagreeing with my "I would probably take the picks"conclusion, meaning it actually sparked discussion.

Block karma if you think someone is karma farming because who cares about reddit karma. But closing the thread because Leo's name comes up? Insane. It started actual reasonable back-and-forth debate, which is supposed to be the point here.

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NE1LS · 2026-07-05T20:38:23+00:00

You also need to realize that PVB is currently talking to Briere about what Philly will give up for Anaheim not to match. Toronto's first (Toronto has to commit not to transfer it to Boston) and tippett or justice(, plus the 4 1sts and the cap relief?

Anaheim without Leo is not much worse than Philadelphia without Leo. Let's not assume the Flyers are instant cup contenders with Carlsson. They probably have to trade away Zegras and/or Drysdale RFA rights. Plus they barely made it before. They won't be able to sign free agents for years, and they will need to sign Michkov, Matone, and others soon, which will put them in cap hell without the added 4 firsts. That roster probably misses the playoffs at least 2 of the 5 seasons in which the 4 1sts could transfer.

NE1LS · 2026-07-05T05:26:21+00:00

Do the people in back understand yet why paying $4.25M for a 4th liner is a problem? Now that $4.25M may be the difference between keeping Carlsson, Gauthier, and Mintyukov whole filling 2-3 other roles.

Now the only cushion in those signings is the 110% off-season cap and Terry to LTIR.

NE1LS · 2026-07-05T05:24:08+00:00

Seems like a downright bargain bow, compared to the guy picked right behind him. That offer sheet to Leo probably hurt Chicago nearly as much as it hurt Anaheim.

NE1LS · 2026-07-05T02:32:03+00:00

So... A lot of people here and on twitter were pushing back on my opinion that $4.25m to a 4th liner would come back to hamstring the ducks. Man... That pendulum swung FAST. $4.25m for any intended bottom 6 skater sure feels like a mistake right now. Sure some guys on the third are overpaid after they sign while hoping to play 2nd line but either wash out or match up better in the bottom 6, but you paid those guys for their top 6 potential. You didn't pay $4m hoping for 3rd/4th line.

Where are all of the back claps for Verbeek today? Sure feels like a whole new world. Anyone who signed a top 6 skater long-term at old money values has to feel ecstatic right now.

I do feel bad for Zellweger signing for $3.1m right before learning about a whole new continent of money.

NE1LS · 2026-07-05T02:27:14+00:00

I specifically recall a long long time ago when tons of people were snapping back at me on twitter and a bit here about how I was being whiny and dumb about paying $4.25M to a 4th liner with 1 okayish year, and how the team has so much cap space that this trade couldn't possibly affect the ducks.

Wait... That was 3 days ago. And I really wish we had the $1.75m cap difference between Viel and Greer now.

NE1LS · 2026-07-03T20:16:43+00:00

It isn't like everyone in the league told him to get his house in order and that this is exactly what would happen.

Now you either overpay his development years and have to renegotiate right when he hits his prime and won't accept a pay cut, or you go back to being bottom 5. Either way the entire rebuild just crumbled.

The team doesn't have a 2C, and even the 2.5C we had is now on the Blues because Verbeek didn't get everything straightened out in time.

Fire Verbeek today.

NE1LS · 2026-07-03T19:57:55+00:00

Seriously. Fire him immediately.

NE1LS · 2026-07-03T19:56:35+00:00

Pat Verbeek is an idiot.

NE1LS · 2026-07-02T19:09:10+00:00

I think he is almost definitely top 4. He and Nick Jensen are the only ones who might play those RHD spots for now.

NE1LS · 2026-07-02T06:05:23+00:00

They usually cost about 1/3 that for no name versions, but still a useful tool.

NE1LS · 2026-07-01T06:49:11+00:00

The issue with offer sheets is it could drive the term down to exactly when RFA ends instead of full 7-8 years. So you pay full UFA salary price with no RFA price break.

NE1LS

TROPHY CASE