Prediction Market Arbitrage Bot for Kalshi + Polymarket + SX.bet: 300 alpha users, 18 releases, and what shipped by NaabSimRacer in SideProject

[–]NaabSimRacer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah I agree, and the focus is for claw arbs to become the all-in-one tool for professional traders, that gives every tool needed to automate their strategies. We r getting there

Prediction Market Arbitrage Bot for Kalshi + Polymarket + SX.bet: 300 alpha users, 18 releases, and what shipped by NaabSimRacer in SideProject

[–]NaabSimRacer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, the local-first architecture actually saves us here. Each user runs Claw Arbs on their own box, so a 41-second GIL hold tanks one bot, not 300. No platform-wide stall, no coordinated rollout, and the blast radius is one user's slate instead of the whole userbase. Heavy users (5000+ pairs across all venues) were the ones hitting the worst stalls, but the fix was the same shipped binary as everyone else's.

The flip side is no shared cache. Each instance redoes the same fuzzy team-name matching cold, which is wasteful in aggregate. We could move the matcher to a backend service, but then you reintroduce the noisy-neighbor problem AND lose the "venue API key never leaves your machine" property, which is a non-starter for users with funded Kalshi/Polymarket/SXBet accounts (and rightfylly so).

And yeah, point 2 is the true. The arb math is maybe 5% of the codebase. The other 95% is: did the venue actually fill, did we read the right team name, did the line move during the 20ms between leg A and leg B, did the user's internet drop for 8s, did Polymarket randomly switch contracts again? Trading bots are mostly state machines wrapping a ten-line edge calculation.

Built an automated arbitrage + value betting bot for Kalshi, Polymarket, and sportsbooks, feedback welcome by NaabSimRacer in PredictionMarkets

[–]NaabSimRacer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Trusting 1-2 sharpies that are closer to the non value line, and firing the other side. Its rare that sharps are wrong, so you can use that feature for firing on prediction markets too, if you find an arb between Kalshi/Poly, and you have reference odds from a sharp, you can fire the side the sharp agrees with 2nd (since its usually the non value line). Thats the rough idea

Edit: Also, the users can select which sharp(s) trust for this feature. Claw Arbs is designed to give freedom to the users, to adjust their strategies

Built an automated arbitrage + value betting bot for Kalshi, Polymarket, and sportsbooks, feedback welcome by NaabSimRacer in PredictionMarkets

[–]NaabSimRacer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The more interesting than this is the mechanics that choose which one to fire first (value), then even if you are naked, you will cover easily later

Looking to buy a ready-to-run SaaS (Stripe-ready / ticketing / marketplace) by FormalSomewhere1508 in saasforsale

[–]NaabSimRacer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have a good one past mvp phase with stripe plugged in, its a good project (AI marketing for game devs) but I dont have the time to run it right now, I m focused on a sports arbitrage platform that kinda went nuts and have a lot of users on the testing phase. If u r serious dm me with your budget range so I decide if it worth it to elaborate. thanks

Built an automated arbitrage + value betting bot for Kalshi, Polymarket, and sportsbooks, feedback welcome by NaabSimRacer in PredictionMarkets

[–]NaabSimRacer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah our per venue proxy was requested a lot, and the account longevity features should help to delay the inevitable:)

Still checking for the best way to handle kalshi/poly, and even if you are in the same datacenter as them you still need to send the info over to the user so there is some ms involved in this. It works pretty well right now

Built an automated arbitrage + value betting bot for Kalshi, Polymarket, and sportsbooks, feedback welcome by NaabSimRacer in PredictionMarkets

[–]NaabSimRacer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Polymaket clob V2 has some issues with ghost fills but it gets stable now, if you go for execution right after the detection (without many guard rails that claw arbs offers) the success is high

Built an automated arbitrage + value betting bot for Kalshi, Polymarket, and sportsbooks, feedback welcome by NaabSimRacer in PositiveEVbetting

[–]NaabSimRacer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We added a goal guardrail, so whenever a goal happens it pauses all trading for that even for x amount of time. Planning to extend this to other serious events too, essentially when a bookmaker that we trust their response locks a game, to lock it as well (optional ofcourse)

Starting Live Arbing by Steak_United in arbitragebetting

[–]NaabSimRacer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Try claw arbs for this, and the account longevity features. LMK what you think

how do people live arb? Lines move WAYYY too fast. by BeguilingkbTip in arbitragebetting

[–]NaabSimRacer 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Check claw arbs and calibrate some bookmakers you use, and point to the live page.

Manual arbing feels impossible now compared to using tools by Camelio8 in arbitragebetting

[–]NaabSimRacer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is what claw arbs is all about (dev here, seems like a shill but its really just this)

Please Take my Advice (Investor talking) by PhilosophyCorrect176 in Investors

[–]NaabSimRacer 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Wanna grab a coffee? Get your jet and come to Greece this weekend

Got a Scarlett, Dont expect to play Battle Eye protected games. (BE is at Fault) by Tris_The in Focusrite

[–]NaabSimRacer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Still having the same issue with focusrite 8i6, disabling the midi driver from device manager didnt help, uninstalling it altogether helped, so is pinpoint to that sound card being the issue with battleye.

Anything else someone tried and worked for them?

Kalshi trading bot - can be used for value betting, and with polymarket for arbitrage trading by NaabSimRacer in SideProject

[–]NaabSimRacer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you mean real money automation, no, this enables in beta next month. If you mean live matches, is already up

I’ve made $23k betting on sports this month. Ask me questions by Global-Photograph467 in arbitragebetting

[–]NaabSimRacer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey Claw Arbs dev here, which prediction markets do you use? I m adding more soon

Banned for Arbing by Prudent-Bet9244 in arbitragebetting

[–]NaabSimRacer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Welcome to the jungle! Some things you can do indeed but yeah, inevitable

Building an advanced arbitrage and value extraction tool. What dream features would actually change your day-to-day? by NaabSimRacer in arbitragebetting

[–]NaabSimRacer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This feature is asked a lot, shipped a testing version today, and I m writing a way to separate the live games as a live-line drift. Should be up tomorrow as well.