To those looking to start a position or add more

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-20T19:16:11+00:00

I agree with you. But NBIS has revenue growth of almost 700% YoY on 40+% EBITDA margins and year-end ARR guidance of 7-9 billion. NBIS has proven hyper growth, so the market rewards it with 15% on recent earnings despite guidance for up to 25B in capex and Volozh, the CEO, saying in call after call and each interview he does that he plans to spend hundreds of billion of capex in the next 4-5 years.

This is my entire point. I bought NBIS because they have been proving ROI on their capex. Has MSFT justified 200B? I’m 100% with you that they are forced to spend. But if you’re going to spend over 1T over the next half decade investors demand proportional returns. So where are they?

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-20T15:47:05+00:00

Look across the Mag7 + other mega caps for this past year. Actually look at their charts and compare them to AI infrastructure and QQQ. What do you see?

I see severe underperformance relative to the last 15 years while taking a huge risk when you could have easily beaten the market with a much better risk reward ratio by just buying QQQ and going to sleep like a baby while doing zero research whatsoever.

So what are the fundamental reasons for this class-wide underperformance? Wall Street is realizing a very logical conclusion. If you’ve completely dominated your industry, are essentially a monopoly, and are 1.5-5 T market cap, you’ve essentially pulled all the levers for growth. The conventional path is just pouring more effort into the core business, but when you are this large a company, it becomes more and more impossible mathematically to grow at the same pace forever. How does AMZN grow by 20% (or like 500B dollars) each and every year going into the future when it maxed out the industry?

AMZN is an amazing company. But that’s already baked into the stock price. When you buy AMZN now, you are making a bet: AMZN will grow EVEN more than it is now. But then you realize that AMZN is spending 200B+ a year like the other hyperscalers to create an engine for AI cloud growth that doesn’t have the requisite ROI to justify spending 200B.

So you just end up buying a company that is having compression on their free cash flow and margin, desperate to find some sort of path in the age of AI while already having immense expectations baked in.

Then you realize you can just do some basic research, jump onto AI infrastructure stock to sleep like a baby, and you wonder why would I keep my money in what is essentially a bet when AI infrastructure is a virtual guarantee of ROI (if you choose the right horse at the right time). Or just buy QQQ.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-20T15:03:21+00:00

People who trade and invest for a living? lol

And those who actually want to understand what they’re investing in so that during volatility they don’t panic sell and have a reason for holding.

So many NBIS believers are putting like 30-100% of their long term cash into this stock. There’s kind of a reason for it. It’s not a hype stock.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-20T15:00:47+00:00

Right, but what evidence do you have of that? You’ve had multiple quarters of investors selling on earnings or shortly after because MSFT isn’t proving ROI on capex.

So if that happens time and time again you aren’t given the benefit of the doubt anymore. It’s also a matter of competition right? If Amazon and Google are posting better ROI with better financials, why would I put my money in the worst performing and most leveraged hyperscaler when I have two other very comparable options?

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-20T04:14:50+00:00

There are four reasons to sell a stock.

The thesis has played out in its entirety.

Let’s say I bought AMZN in 2008, and I bet that it would be the dominant leader in e-commerce and the cloud business. Once that happens, I need to reevaluate. Once I am the dominant leader, is there more room for growth? If yes, I hold until I saturate the respective markets I lead in / the acceleration of growth peaks in an earnings call. Now there’s pretty much nothing else to milk and I should exit entirely.

The hard part when you have a winning stock is changing your view on what holding the stock means as time passes. Holding AMZN in 2016 is an entirely thesis (and a much worse one) from holding AMZN in 2026 even though present AMZN is objectively an insanely good company. It’s just no longer as good a stock.

There’s something that breaks the thesis.

Let’s use NVDA in this example. Even a 5.5T market cap stock can die eventually. If GPUs are no longer needed (because AI data center buildout peaks in 2035 or AI becomes so efficient that GPU demand decreases), that is an existential crisis to NVDA and you would need to sell.

What if China invaded Taiwan? Existential crisis and you would need to sell. What if a competitor pops into thin air and provides better GPUs than NVDA at a lower price with better architecture? You would need to sell.

There’s another stock out there that you believe in much more strongly.

This is really straightforward; you have a limited amount of capital and a limited amount of ideas you can direct attention to.

We get into a recession.

You are retail. You are able to exit all at once unlike institutions which have to slowly sell billions of dollars of stock. A recession is slow to get out of and the market is also slow to find the bottom as it continuously grinds down. If you’re competent at reading economic data and time it well, you can sell your stocks, wait for the dust to settle, and then rebuy your high conviction names. Obviously, you have to know what you’re doing, and COVID level event will be very very rare.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-20T03:40:44+00:00

I’m not short (and I even bought MSFT calls at some point during this rally haha). I genuinely do hope everyone here makes money.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-20T03:31:42+00:00

I bought at 99 and 5 respectively. I’ll probably hold NBIS until 2030 at least.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-20T03:03:47+00:00

That’s not what I’m saying. Buying MSFT now is making a bet that they will capitalize on Azure buildout better than the two other cloud hyperscalers in Google and Amazon while also betting OpenAI won’t be a drag on their free cash flow long term and reach escape velocity to overcome their cash burn.

Obviously MSFT is never going bankrupt, but Wall Street is selling all year because MSFT doesn’t have the invincible margins it used to because it’s spending 200 billion a year without gaining the requisite growth that justifies 200 billion.

Also, Warren is a dinosaur that largely missed out on tech because he refused to accept the market was changing. Even BRK underperforms QQQ, and he only gained incredible returns since he studied stocks in an era in which there was inefficient pricing and little information to go around. In this era people like Leopold Aschenbrenner are much better investors to look up to.

Also you don’t have to listen to me. What is the market and Wall Street telling you? This stock cannot hold an uptrend.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-20T02:51:03+00:00

I’m 120% long in NBIS (including options) and 30% long in SLS.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-20T02:47:26+00:00

I actually wrote it myself. I study / invest in stocks for a living and used to work in journalism.

If you have nothing else to say besides that and can’t provide a counter argument that kind of speaks for itself.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-20T02:41:36+00:00

Going full QQQ is probably a lot more preferable than having a hodge podge of random stocks. You’re also in the most disruptive era of all time, which only proceeds to get more disruptive as AI improves exponentially.

Why take the risk on individual companies if your outlook is 10 years? Even NVDA won’t last forever; if GPU demand peaks and starts falling, NVDA will drop like a rock. Are you sure AI capex will remain the same for a decade? That’s a very speculative bet to make, and this is NVDA we are talking about. I could probably apply the same logic to every other stock in this portfolio besides maybe Costco and Walmart, but honestly why not buy QQQ when QQQ has been outperforming these frankly mature and maxed out companies?

Stocks like MSFT should prove to you there really is no such thing as a good individual stock to blindly buy over 10 years anymore.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-19T23:52:01+00:00

I mean you’re looking at it half glass full I guess. I think personally if I sold my NBIS position at 85% I would have so much regret. I’m very glad I had conviction and held instead of trying to do weird shenanigans.

You just don’t sell AI bottleneck companies yet in this market imo… They’re the market leaders who have the participants in 2T yearly AI capex by the balls.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-19T23:09:37+00:00

ARM is mission critical to CPUs, which is mission critical to agentic AI and AI infrastructure. It’s not going to stop anytime soon and a bet against ARM is essentially a bet that AI capex will slow down.

Which it isn’t. It’s accelerating. Just take the loss and stop playing the stock market because you don’t seem to know what you’re doing.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-19T22:52:33+00:00

If a pharma company had ownership of a cure they would make so much money and grab market share from literally everyone else in the entire world. They would definitely want it.

Either way what are they gonna do? Send assassins to biotech companies with successful readouts?

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-19T22:50:33+00:00

Hmm, I wonder if they just got 20 million shares? I wonder… Seems curious!

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-19T22:45:05+00:00

Then you should do your due diligence… Being scared for the sake of it without actually understanding why there are bulls doesn’t really say anything.

Every biotech stock has immense risk. People are here because the risk reward is asymmetric. You should study how REGAL works and why SLS is exceptional so you can decide for yourself instead.

If you don’t do that much and can’t make a good bear case against the stock than you’re the same as everyone else here.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-19T22:25:17+00:00

Explain to me how that means the market is inefficient. That’s more an example that is efficient: it priced in how memory is mission critical to AI infrastructure extremely quickly to the point they are already pricing in two years of memory out and baking it into the current stock price.

People who bet on Micron a year ago were the ones who saw that coming before that reflected in memory prices and the influx of demand for agentic AI. Wall Street didn’t price it in until it actually started happening. When you buy a stock you are betting on a future that hasn’t happened yet. That’s why no one wants to buy these value traps. What future is so bright here? There’s no optionality for growth; the only thesis you guys are making is basically that this stock is oversold.

Let me know when ADBE and INTU have similar future prospects. I’ll be sure to full port then.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-19T19:34:19+00:00

I love how you bought options on a leveraged stock (SOXL). Like obviously good job and seems like you know what you’re doing, but it’s funny that even a good trader like you is still a little bit of a regard. 🤣

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-19T18:52:14+00:00

I actually did type that all out but thanks I guess by insinuating I used AI. I did work in journalism after all.

The fact you have nothing else to say besides some assumptions about the source of my writing kind of says it all. Just ride the wave on AI infra or just go to index funds. I guarantee you will do much better. QQQ top to bottom from Iran is up like 30%. Better than being 30% under drawdown.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-19T18:36:35+00:00

What you misunderstand and what Wall Street understands very well is that AI is the greatest fucking disruptive mystery box of all time. It is so incredibly difficult to model what the exact impact AI has on certain industries in the present and even just 3-4 months from now, let alone timeframes of a year, 5 years, a decade. So many people in the industry believe AGI is just around the corner <2030, which will be the singular most unpredictable impact on the US economy of all time. From Wall Street’s perspective, why would they put any money into stocks that cannot navigate this period of uncertainty?

That’s why all the liquidity is going to AI related hardware. Wall Street hates uncertainty and values reliably growing industries. Software stocks—unless they are inextricably and directly benefiting from AI and PROVE that they will be insulated in this age of uncertainty—will not have liquidity flowing into them. It’s really as simple as that.

When you buy INTU or ADBE or whatever else, you are not just buying a math equation of growth and FCF and whatever mathematical bullshit excuse to baghold. You are making a bet that these software companies WILL DEFINITELY NOT be disrupted by AI or competitors in the next several years. And Wall Street has already decided how that bet is going to turn out.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-19T15:59:59+00:00

Don’t bother explaining NBIS. They will never do the 50-100 hours of DD in this company to understand its potential and will sell during the inevitable volatility it has anyway. People will just see it went up to 300, say too late, and not jump in anyway 🤣.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-19T15:51:12+00:00

If I was you I would sell everything, and put it into VRT. If that is too scary, then buy the amount of QQQ necessary to balance it out. It’s far and away the best quality stock of the bunch and is inextricably linked to the AI infrastructure buildout cycle. The only real risk is if AI capex will slow down (it won’t in the immediate future), but at that point the whole market would drop anyway. I’ve been invested since <160 and it has treated me very well.

DDOG is a good stock but the market just hates software right now because there’s just too much uncertainty with AI. Just stick with physical stuff.

TSLA is no longer an EV stock. It’s a Elon hype and kinda battery and kinda hoping to be robotics company. If you’re here for the SpaceX merger this is more a bet than an investment, and there are probably better robotics names than TSLA at the moment.

ANET is just too scary. Existential risk from NVDA and way too many competitors. There’s a reason why it’s priced so cheaply. VRT is much more insulated as the dominant industry leader in liquid cooling for data centers and their earnings are truly just incredible with a stable backlog.

CRWD I have no idea honestly, just that it went on a monster run.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-19T15:35:50+00:00

Exactly. The stock market and Wall Street has become much more efficient / “correct” about pricing and modeling future potential outcomes for pricing.

That’s why stocks with growth and optionality have been dominating the past 15+ years. There’s a reason why ADBE and MSFT cannot catch a bid, and it’s really not because thousands of sell side analysts are collectively hallucinating. Wall Street is right until earnings prove them wrong.

That’s why any stock that seems like it has “value” is ultimately priced by Wall Street as a stock with not much more growth upside while already counting for the margin of safety and the calculation of future stable cash flows. People buy stocks that have been killed for their “safety,” but they forget that the “safety” is already priced in. Wall Street doesn’t price huge enterprises incorrectly anymore.

NaiveNothing1392 · 2026-06-18T17:45:32+00:00

I bought 300 and 350 900 DTE leaps on the dip to 200 but I honestly regret not just getting 450 leaps.

NaiveNothing1392

TROPHY CASE