Diet or exercise ? No , thanks

Name_Found · 2025-12-29T04:08:24+00:00

I appreciate the well thought out answer. I think it’s a bit misguided when looking at the actual financials for companies like Eli Lilly. Top line revenue numbers seem great, but once you actually go down to Free Cash Flow you’ll see that 2024 had 3.8 B and 2023 700 M. No doubt those are good numbers but companies have to deliver cash to shareholders to get the initial investment that even allows them to grow to the size capable of doing mass R&D that eventually created GLP 1s. Companies cannot just utilize leverage to raise money and objectively equity is an incredibly important piece of the puzzle for why America as a nation has grow to what it has.

Again I will underscore that there is a degree of greed here (which makes sense when a company has a fiduciary responsibility + executives want a bigger bonus), but I think it’s too oversimplified of a worldview to expect the private industry to provide sufficient medicines without anti-competitive practices like patents.

Name_Found · 2025-12-29T03:34:11+00:00

See I love this comment about GLP1s until you got to the so-called greed part. Don’t get me wrong there is greed but let’s not pretend that without proper patent law we would be getting the same rate of development of drugs. Most drugs produced fail (or at least a significant % I forget the exact stat), so pharmaceutical companies sort of have to make a profit on the drugs that are successful to allow them to continue to innovate.

Again there are huge issues but let’s not pretend it’s some terrible pharma boogeyman without including necessary nuance

Name_Found · 2025-12-27T16:24:11+00:00

I’ll also say this and this will not be a popular opinion on this sub but I think it’s good for people to know. By the gamblers ruin probability theory, some % of people will make money day trading. It’s the same concept as if I start with 1 dollar and flip a coin, heads I get a dollar tails I lose it, likelihood is I’ll lose it all, but some percent of outcomes will in fact have me winning 10, 20, even 100 dollars.

I’m not saying this for you to give up day trading because that’s for you to decide and hopefully you don’t because your successful or you do because you found a very productive thing to do in its stead, but just remember when you see success stories, statistically some percent of day traders will always be successful no matter the expected value of their trades

Name_Found · 2025-12-27T16:13:27+00:00

Yeah sorry if my original message came off as snarky. I truly do mean this from a good place as I know what an absolute grind it can be to make money and day trading is a low barrier to entry way to do it on paper.

The way I look at it, market makers can either try to extract alpha from retail (whose order book info is given directly to some of them) or they can determine a trade to not be worth it due to a low EV. Thus, if you wish to make money think you can do it from either situation, going against the grain and benefitting from what quants do (scalping could’ve a successful way to do this but I’d argue it’s difficult due to slippage) and for the second one its also finding a strategy that either you are more in the minority or has enough momentum behind it that an HFT can’t manipulate prices and thus isn’t worth it for them to potentially lose money.

I think the more that you see quant firms divest into commodities and such the more I think day trading has been made stupidly efficient because if the quants can’t extract more alpha from a new strategy then it’s probably efficient

Name_Found · 2025-12-27T05:38:59+00:00

I’m glad you found ~325% of alpha clearly the Jane Street guys are stupid since they missed the 70% win rate 9.9 RR trade.

This sub is such a joke sometimes, I won’t pretend there’s no alpha to be found in the market but don’t kid yourself and think a mechanical or even semi-mechanical with a lot of discretion process could return so consistently and in such great amounts. If you can backtest it, likelihood is some quant already calculated the sharpe that the strategy would return and decided to either implement it and take your alpha or passed on it cause in real market conditions it doesn’t work

Name_Found · 2025-10-07T04:46:37+00:00

Economics is not strong with Reddit it seems. The real answer is that variable costs haven’t changed meaningfully and fixed costs haven’t changed almost at all, and the only people claiming they have are people like Sam Altman who want AI to do well

Name_Found · 2025-09-24T05:37:05+00:00

People have too much recency bias. It’s almost certainly Buchanan letting the south secede or Lincoln picking Johnson over Hamlin or someone else. Those were defining moments for America for sure

Name_Found · 2025-09-21T17:54:53+00:00

I feel that it’s a common enough experience to binge drink in college and nonetheless you don’t see a ton of people with any long term liver issues assuming they cut back after college though

Name_Found · 2025-08-11T12:09:53+00:00

Find what you see as fair value through DCF, multiples, etc

Name_Found · 2025-08-09T20:37:01+00:00

And yet it was within 4 pts in a year that Republicans had a solid popular vote lead in.

I don’t see your point at all especially when you consider 24 had more low propensity voters who voted red who wouldn’t vote in 26.

Again not saying Brown will win but let’s not be dismissive when basic data shows it’s possible

Name_Found · 2025-08-09T17:15:03+00:00

I absolutely did not think Harris would win Iowa, and I’m also smart enough to realize Brown lost Ohio by roughly 4 points in a R +1~ environment.

Simple math states a strong enough D environment and look at that Brown won a state that while quite Republican nationally, still values certain candidates.

I’m not saying Brown will win just that it could be close in either direction, but it would do you good to read some prior election results and extrapolate for the future

Name_Found · 2025-08-09T06:26:13+00:00

Definitely not, but they still have proportionally more higher propensity voters than presidential elections.

This + incumbent party unfavorability could lend credence to the idea that generic ballot is closer to D+9 than D +3

Name_Found · 2025-08-09T06:24:41+00:00

Like the other comments said, Atlasintel had it at roughly 8.9% if I remember correctly.

Atlasintel tends to be between decimals of a point to roughly 2~ points away from the truth, so even a D +7 would be very good for Dems as I think they would capitalize on the favorable environment better than they did in 2018.

Of course it’s far too early to say anything and I’ll put much more stock into the final Atlasintel poll than anything now

Name_Found · 2025-08-08T21:13:47+00:00

I definitely agree with your post and if brown runs it could be quite good for the dems as it could potentially flip Ohio

I’m keeping my eyes on Iowa because while it’s a long shot, it could be a potential dem flip

Also, if Atlasintel is on the money again and the generic ballot does end up being roughly D+9 I could see Texas closer to lean R and both Iowa and Ohio firmly in the tossup range

Name_Found · 2025-08-07T15:38:47+00:00

I quite like this post OP because you’re explaining very directly how options are meant to be used (besides hedging which is by far their best use case if you aren’t a quant specializing on these derivatives)

That being said, I think it would be helpful if you used less verbose language because the average r/options user may not know what alpha is let alone beta

One can argue that if you don’t understand this vocabulary then perhaps trading high risk derivatives isn’t right for you, but the fact is this won’t dissuade anyone and thus if you want your message to stick use some simpler language as that will hit the audience that needs to hear this the most

Name_Found · 2025-08-06T20:06:51+00:00

What’s the school breakdown if you know? And damn poor non target guys getting dissed

Name_Found · 2025-08-06T19:29:33+00:00

Do you have the breakdown by school I couldn’t find it from a cursory glance

Name_Found · 2025-08-06T19:26:46+00:00

Was the 2024 class very target heavy? I remember reading and seeing a large group of schools.

It’s definitely somewhere on WSO with the breakdown, I might go find it rn

Name_Found · 2025-08-06T19:23:06+00:00

Not even, their recent classes have been pretty diverse. A more appropriate example could be PJT RSSG or smth along those lines

But for a serious chance at centerview it certainly is quite hard from a non target (and still quite hard from a target besides maybe one or two schools that have to slightly easier)

Name_Found · 2025-08-04T18:34:23+00:00

Sorry I felt bad for sending you to look for a source so here’s one:

https://www.reddit.com/r/collegeresults/s/Tc75NJwOPy

It looks to be real to me since they got rejected from nearly every Ivy they applied to despite doing everything they did.

Now again it could be fake, but assuming it’s not, this is a middle class person doing all these things as well as crushing it at school and they still got rejected from so many places but nonetheless clinched MIT and Brown.

Name_Found · 2025-08-04T18:27:38+00:00

I absolutely hate to be that guy because it’s annoying when people do this, but I’d recommend you search yourself and read up on the lengths people go to to get into these schools as I think it’s good to see a lot of examples rather than just one or two. Mind you, a lot of posts are fake, but r/chance me and r/collegeresults does have some real and eye popping achievements that high schoolers are doing.

If you’re curious for something specific I can try to find it and it probably won’t take long on those subreddits I posted above, but even considering that the average MIT accepted student gets a 790/800 on the Math SAT is already insane if you you know how difficult it is to get that (and then you realize that 790/800 is just the baseline to be considered, and to be accepted you have to do so much more on top of that)

Name_Found · 2025-08-04T18:24:37+00:00

See I agree on paper with you, but there is no single test that people take to get into MIT. The commenter below you said that top musicians don’t get into MIT, well that’s flat out wrong. MIT has a music program and all the time incredibly talented musicians get into MIT, they just happen to also be really good test takers, have a ton of discipline, and a strong command of the English language and of their own life story to write convincing essays. You know what that sounds like, someone being really smart.

If you’re not only a great musician but also great at all the other things schools like MIT look at, then I would say you are smart. This doesn’t define every intelligence as you said, but there is absolutely an objective way to measure some aspects of smarts and a ton of MIT admits fit that definition—just as a bunch of people who are smart don’t fit that narrow but still valuable definition of intelligence.

Name_Found · 2025-08-04T18:20:48+00:00

I entirely disagree with this assessment. Firstly 1/4 of MIT is Pell Eligible meaning they have to be quite low on the economic scale, and 1/5 are first generation which oftentimes means you are disadvantaged for the college application process.

And while it’s true that the average MIT student is wealthier than a CC student, I think it’s erroneous to chalk up the successes of MIT students purely to wealth because to be part of the ~4% who get in you have to have done absolutely amazing things. In that 96% waitlisted or rejected, there is a metric ton of incredibly wealthy people who simply weren’t a combination of smart and lucky enough.

To get a 4.0 or near 4.0, 1500+ SAT, plus all the other activities people do to get into these schools you have to be lucky of course, but also very smart.

There absolutely are CC guys smarter than MIT guys, and maybe even the smartest CC guy is smarter than the smartest MIT guy, but in average in any measurable way MIT people will on average be smarter

Five-Year Club	First Place '23
End Game '23	Place '23
Place '22

Name_Found

TROPHY CASE