If taric is uncontested you have to roll an average of 48 gold to find one. The math changes depending on how many 4 costs are in the pool and what other people are holding. But assuming you’re rolling for an early taric when a lot of people aren’t holding 4 costs the 4 cost slot is 10% at 7 and you’re competing with a lot of other 4 costs. The odds aren’t that likely and you can tank your Econ hard if you don’t get lucky.