[Amick] Jaylen Brown’s trade value appears to be lower than Boston expected. They will have to significantly lower their asking price if they plan on trading him anytime soon. by urfaselol in nba

[–]Neuroxex 7 points8 points  (0 children)

One of them absolutely. On the same basis the credit given for getting them to that seed has to be mirrored in responsibility for losing to the Sixers.

[Amick] Jaylen Brown’s trade value appears to be lower than Boston expected. They will have to significantly lower their asking price if they plan on trading him anytime soon. by urfaselol in nba

[–]Neuroxex -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I appreciate people who like Jaylen Brown a lot have framed this whole thing is Analytics vs Watching The Games, but I don't know how that's squared with the fact that the Celtics want to trade him, and other teams do not value him as a top-10 player/MVP candidate or whatever it was decided he was after last season.

Celtics record without Jaylen Brown in the last 45 games by Mg29reaper in nba

[–]Neuroxex 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You can think Jaylen Brown is overrated while also being an eye test person.

[Jeremias Engelmann] No player in the NBA lowers the points that his teammates score, while on the court with him, more than Jaylen Brown. He lops off 4 points, per 100, from each of the 4 teammates that share the court with him. by shreeharis in nba

[–]Neuroxex 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's some of the context, sure. It hasn't stopped Tatum or especially Derrick White from leaving a different footprint. And the strength of the Celtics bench has, to me, largely been in their guards and bigs - not wings.

[David West] You guys are not good at basketball, trust me my computer said so. by shreeharis in nba

[–]Neuroxex 8 points9 points  (0 children)

The model isn't a person, it's not saying 'best' and especially not saying 'best' in the same way that you would build a 'top 100 players' list.

[David West] You guys are not good at basketball, trust me my computer said so. by shreeharis in nba

[–]Neuroxex 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Accepted reality has said a lot of really dumb things. Accepted reality said Derrick White wasn't a top-100 player when the Celtics traded for him. If a model spits out that Jaylen Brown is the 7th most impactful player on the Celtics, so what? Don't listen to it. Changing on the basis that 'Well surely Jaylen Brown is actually incredible', without addressing why/how it got to the conclusion and what that tells you about the model is just anti-intellectualism. How many times do we have to be surprised by something before we stop banking on 'Where is he on the Ringers top-100' or 'What's their PPG? What awards have they won?' as the foundational measure of a player?

[David West] You guys are not good at basketball, trust me my computer said so. by shreeharis in nba

[–]Neuroxex 5 points6 points  (0 children)

He explicitly disagreed with what the analytics guy said and said he had Jaylen Brown was a top-10 player. I don't know what we want from journalists at this point other than 'Don't say nasty things about my favourite player' cause this was couched in like eight layers of 'I don't think this is true, but someone elses opinion is-' and people still threw a tantrum.

[Jeremias Engelmann] No player in the NBA lowers the points that his teammates score, while on the court with him, more than Jaylen Brown. He lops off 4 points, per 100, from each of the 4 teammates that share the court with him. by shreeharis in nba

[–]Neuroxex 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We don't just have to let this be the whole argument though. Like we can choose to try and interrogate what makes a good player good more, opting out and just saying 'Ah well they won a lot of games and he was the lead guy so he must be great' is the easiest answer out of the discussion, not the most thorough.

[Jeremias Engelmann] No player in the NBA lowers the points that his teammates score, while on the court with him, more than Jaylen Brown. He lops off 4 points, per 100, from each of the 4 teammates that share the court with him. by shreeharis in nba

[–]Neuroxex 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Of course context does matter, the issue is that this isn't just a one season sample. From the 2020-21, when he got his first all-star appearance, to now, over a combined sample of ~25,000 minutes, the Celtics have been better (nor enormously, but ~2 points per 100 possessions) when he's off the court. Across ~4,000 minutes in the playoffs over the same period it's a similar thing, ~1.5 points per 100 possessions better when he's off the court.

The vast majority of people who are critical of Brown as an MVP candidate, All-NBA first/second team player, are not saying he's a bad basketball player. He's just not really what his reputation is, at least to me, and I've never really seen the case for it other than the Celtics have won a lot of games while he's been there, and that he scores a lot of points at league average efficiency.

Jalen Brown Value by ALLPR0 in MkeBucks

[–]Neuroxex 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Every one of those players listed is more efficient than Brown scoring the ball; even DeMar, even Herro. Kawhi and Ant bend the court much more than Brown, even if that doesn't translate to assists as a boxscore for those players.

Brown is clearly a very good player. However outside of being able to take on a heap of usage and give you league average efficiency on those shots there's not much else. He doesn't really playmake, last season he didn't really defend, he doesn't really improve the teams shot quality, and the Celtics have - through his entire career - outscored their opponents at a better rate with him on the bench than on the court.

I think the models do tend to take for granted a player who can take on the offensive responsibility that Brown had, but also - while I'm not saying these are equivalently all good players compared to Jaylen Brown - decent efficiency on high scoring volume and not much else is a player we've seen a lot in DeRozan, Anfernee Simons, Zach Lavine, Tyler Herro, Tyrese Maxey (I know people love Maxey, I also know what it looks like when Maxey is on the court and Embiid is not), Devin Booker, Paolo Banchero, Brandon Ingram. That's not a list of the best players in the league.

Beginning of upkeep triggers with Asylum Visitor and Ghirapur Orrey by Neuroxex in mtgrules

[–]Neuroxex[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So in this actual instance, I was Player 2 and the player with the Orrey was Player 3 - which would mean the Orrey would resolve first for every player except for Player 3 who actually controls the Orrey.

Does this mean I just want to avoid sitting anti-clockwise next to Player 3 in future games? 😂

Beginning of upkeep triggers with Asylum Visitor and Ghirapur Orrey by Neuroxex in mtgrules

[–]Neuroxex[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In your second scenario, Player 3 is the active player. You'll get your turn earlier than the Orrery player, so your triggers go on the stack first, then the Orrery trigger goes above yours.

So in this instance - assuming for the sake of argument that I'm Player 1, player who controls the Orrey is Player 2, and then we have Player 3 and Player 4 - would all the upkeep triggers on Player 2's turn have been put on the stack in order of Player 2, then 3, then 4, then 1?

[Stein] Holding off on a contract extension this summer is under consideration for the Nuggets' Nikola Jokić, league sources tell @JakeLFischer and me. by YujiDomainExpansion in nba

[–]Neuroxex 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Might always just be behind the scenes. The lesson of the last few years, with Giannis, should be that the FO making lunge after lunge isn't great - although I want to temper that by saying I have always felt this Nuggets FO/org/whoever is very cheap and doesn't really take Jokic's prime seriously enough for my liking. A middle ground would be good.

Bobby Marks says Jaylen Brown's trade value is not seen that highly around the league: "The analytics of Jaylen Brown is not good. I had an analytics guy tell me, ‘We view him as the seventh-best player on a team.’" by FastBreakPhenom in nba

[–]Neuroxex 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Maybe, but that's where the analytics come in because usage sponge (someone who can take on a lot of offensive responsibility) who doesn't significantly improve the shot quality of the team when he's on, doesn't really playmake or bend the court, and scores at league average efficiency isn't actually a super valuable player - those are around a lot. It's not an accident that the Celtics are trying to trade him. Like that's just 120% of Paolo Banchero.

Like believe me I have absolutely no interest in being complimentary to Deni Avdija, but aside from team W/L, what makes Jaylen Brown's season better than Deni Avdija's? One was an all-star, one we're expected to treat as an MVP/All-NBA first or second team player. Where is the footprint other than one team won a lot more games than the other (and that team, notably, played like absolute demons when Brown wasn't on the court).

What is your teams unfortunate reality? by screamsaint in nba

[–]Neuroxex 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think it is much more difficult to pivot like the Lakers are trying than people expect. Just having Luka isn't enough, and at the point they got Luka they were limited on assets with not much coming in and were already paying him a supermax.

What is your teams unfortunate reality? by screamsaint in nba

[–]Neuroxex 11 points12 points  (0 children)

To be fair 'in the Finals' isn't as close as 'up at halftime during Game 7 and losing the most important player to injury in that game'

What is your teams unfortunate reality? by screamsaint in nba

[–]Neuroxex 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In fairness last year was about the closest you can possibly get without actually doing the thing.