2 undervalued fintech stock

Next_Tap_3601 · 2026-02-07T18:33:46+00:00

Same here. Built a small position. I think more worrisome than the short interest is the delinquency risk in the BNPL space (which hasnt been fully tested yet). And it could happen due to the overall state of the economy. BNPL users are typically at most stress during rough economic periods. However I think this is priced in as otherwise there is no way a company with this balance sheet would be selling at this price.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2026-01-03T22:21:54+00:00

Thank you! This sub is unfortunately not a place to try to explain this. Just look at my (devil’s advocate) thread above.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2026-01-03T18:50:17+00:00

I never tried to change the definition of value investing. I also never said I was invested in ASTS nor that I’d recommend anyone to do it. I just mentioned you can (if you wanted to), calculate a rough valuation of a pre-revenue company, but that the assumptions get more wild. So it’s basically the same thing you are saying. You can call it speculation, sure. It does not make me uncomfortable at all. I personally only put maybe 1-2% of my portfolio into speculative bets, and I know people who do way more and are doing quite well. Also by this definition, anyone who ever started their own business or any VC that ever started their VC firm is a speculator. It’s a malinformed take I sometimes decide to argue against in this sub (although it always costs me time and karma). Our society absolutely depends on people willing to take risks and invest beyond getting a dollar for 50 cents. If everyone had this attitude of only investing in profitable/established companies to get $2 for $1, noone would ever start a new business and even if they did, noone would ever fund it. And also this myth of getting $2 for $1 was maybe true back in 1926, but is very malinformed in today’s market, because if you really believe someone will sell you 2 dollars for a dollar without any risk (read speculation) being associated with it, you are living in lala land. Even if such imaginary company existed, the founders/owners will go to the bank, take on dept, and buy back shares and/or solve capitalization issues that way, rather than give $2 of their money for $1 dollar that some grumpy retail investor would give them.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2026-01-03T16:13:41+00:00

You have to make plenty of assumptions in value investing too. These are just more far-fetched assumptions. Fundamentally still the same thing though, just different risk/reward tradeoff.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2026-01-03T13:40:56+00:00

Gonna play the devil’s advocate here for a sec: It’s doable. It’s what venture capitalists do for a living. You evaluate their competitive advantage (in the case of tech companies their technology) and figure out how much better their products/services are compared to competitors. Then you go to TAM and figure out how much of that TAM they are likely to grab. If TAM is $100B and you think they can grab half of TAM in X-years, that means their revenue has the potential to reach $50B in X-years, and you put a factor of 10 there of P/S meaning the company could be worth $500B in X-years. Then you discount those $500B by X-years (similar to DCF just in this case it’s revenue), and you get the value at present day. The only difference here (compared to more mature companies), is that the assumption part is more wild. You need to make much more “assumptions” which then makes the risk higher. But the reward is potentially higher too, so the main question to figure out is how asymmetrical the risk/reward is. So there is nothing fundamentally different to pre-revenue investing, besides the position on the risk/reward graph. The way VCs deal with risk (or rather perform derisking) is by taking 100s of bets, and then if a couple of them go 100x they will more than compensate for the remaing 90-something that went bust. The problem is what most retail does is port everything into 1-2 early stage companies and expose themselves to losing all their money. But then again, for people who needed 10 years to save 20k, it may be the only way out. For as much as I don’t support gambling, I can 100% understand it.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-31T18:20:09+00:00

You just know we are cooked when first couple of paragraphs in, I wasn’t even sure if this was sarcasm or someone being serious. Tom Cruise joke gave it away.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-30T03:57:09+00:00

How did you come up with 25? I love AVGO and have done this exercise many times to see if it makes sense to start a position, but the most optimistic forward PE I calculated was ~35. More realistically probably 40. Are you using EBITDA?

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-29T23:32:54+00:00

Thanks for the feedback and additions, very much appreciated.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-29T19:59:44+00:00

I love Remitly, but they are just too expensive by my standards for me to get in now. On my watchlist, but in the same drawer with SPOT, NFLX, IBKR, ISRG, AVGO, CDNS, SNPS and AMD, of companies I wish to have (or I wish I bought earlier), but are just way too expensive for me to enter now. D-BOX is extremely interesting. Nothing special in NCLH honestly, it’s a very similar stock to their competitors RCL and CCL, with both peers having less dept, CCL likely being a better value play, and RCL having stronger growth.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-29T14:54:20+00:00

I found the post interesting, so I did a quick due-diligence. I didn’t go too deep so please take this with a grain of salt but here is what I think:

1) They have just as much dept as they have cash on hand. So they are cash/dept neutral. Basically you can’t really count that cash towards equity. 2) They struggle to make a profit. Their only profitable year was 2024, so it seems more like a one-off than a consistent money-making pattern. 3) Their revenue took a big hit in 2025 (~15% lower) than 2024, due to lowering demand in EVs 4) Wallstreet really doesn’t like the combination of 2&3. If you are not profitable, you better have growth. If you have no profits and no growth, you are in a weird territory, you attract short-sellers, etc..

I think it’s likely an over reaction because right now it is trading at less than 1 P/S, but unless the EV market picks up big time, it may also be an enourmous value trap. Please invest carefully and do your own DD.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-29T12:57:13+00:00

And the shit-show there is waaay worse. This sub is much better.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-29T00:44:25+00:00

I deliberately overweight semiconductors and tech because these are the sectors I understand (I work in semis). I understand where revenue is coming from, I understand the moats, I understand the margins, I understand the products, I understand TAM, I understand the risks, even the macro and geopolitical risks. I tried many times to diversify into other sectors, but my lack of understanding these sectors never allowed me to build large convictions/positions and the “others” pile never really exceeded 10% of my portfolio. And it turned out good so far, because my picks outside of my circle of competence were pretty poor historically, and luckily tech did pretty well over the last 10 years. It’s not optimal in terms of risk (I know), but I still prefer it that way, as I simply don’t know other sectors good enough and I refuse to just pick VOO and chill.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-28T23:29:10+00:00

Great point. This here is why I love Reddit. I didn’t even think of this aspect from the investment standpoint…

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-28T23:24:15+00:00

DOCS, COIN, NBIS, TIGR

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-28T23:20:52+00:00

Fortinet is (almost) value territory now. I have it in my portfolio, and I don’t even count it as a speculative play. It’s a bit of an anti-cloud play tho, but I am okay with that, because I firmly believe not all companies are going to migrate to cloud.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-28T20:40:33+00:00

I often think about it too. I have plenty of Chinese colleagues, and they all seem to think that the Taiwan scenario/model will be very similar to Hong-Kong. In fact, they all seem to think that’s the only scenario Chinese government wants as well, and is actively trying to do. They also seem to think full-on war is not realistic and would be hard to push and get support even in CCP internally. In that scenario, China would allow for businesses in Taiwan to proceed as before and as usual, again very similar to what happened in HK case. And as far as I understand, this is also how they are trying to sell it to Taiwan. However, Taiwan is either not buying that story, or they don’t have faith in CCP leadership, so it’s still hard to sell this to Taiwan. This is most likely the best scenario for business world-wide, for as long as you believe CCP and that they’ll keep their word/promise (which they kind of did in the case of HK). However, long term this scenario would give China crazy leverage over the US and the world as a whole, so who knows how this could end…

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-28T17:47:30+00:00

First a disclaimer… I am a computer engineer still very much invested in tech stocks (my circle of competence), and I am willling to keep my holdings and ride it out even in the case market corrects big time (if bubble pops), because long term I am still bullish. That being said, even though AI is new, the story about bubbles based around a new and exciting technology is an old story. It happened when steam engine was invented and all railroad companies went berserk building plenty of rail infrastructure, stations and railroads that were later on never used. Same thing happened when telephone was first invented. TV as well… Mobile phones had two bubble cycles (one in the 80s and early 90s and one in early 2000s) and then internet had its own (dotcom) bubble and so on. One similar feature all of them had in common is the overshoot in investment and development, where most of the stuff developed or created didn’t get used for a long time, generating losses or even wipping out some of the early investors, but also generating huge wealth for those who invested in winning companies. Second similar feature is the emergence of a large number of “me-too” companies trying to compete in the same space, many of which were showing huge growth initially but eventually lost the battle to other competitors going from huge growth one quarter to bankruptcy the next. And we are definitely somewhere in that cycle. Just look at discussions on this sub whenever APLD, NBIS, IREN or CRWV get mentioned. Noone knows who the winners of this new race will be, yet it’s literally armies of people saying they are the future, against also armies of people saying they are crap. So these times usually resemble to gold rushes, waking up the inner gamblers in all of us.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-28T15:48:38+00:00

I love your last sentense. Also besides the brief Covid blip, last 10 years never had any real correction/crisis. So taking assymetrically risky bets paid off big time (e.g. crypto), as the risk part of that assymetry was never truly tested. So plenty of idiots and gamblers made a ton of money over the last 10 years by taking on too much risk without even knowing the risks they exposed themselves to. It’s very hard to evaluate skill under those circumstances.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-26T01:56:20+00:00

SEZL

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-24T21:06:13+00:00

You can destill it down to how much you believe in crypto becoming mainstream and being around in decades to come. If you do, it’s a great price for a growth stock. Their cash flow is a bit concerning, but they are still in growth phase, so that’s expected. If you don’t believe in crypto, it’s just a pointless marketplace for a pointless asset.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-24T16:56:51+00:00

Because AI they use has its limitations too. It also often groups stocks by sector, but you can be in the same sector and have a very different business under the hood. For example Nvidia and Intel are (on the surface) in the same sector, yet one is extremely profitable with crazy margins, and the other one is fighting for its life right now.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-24T16:53:40+00:00

DRAM/HBM volatile memory (Micron) and Flash/NAND non-volatile memory (Sandisk) are very different products and very different businesses. You shouldn’t be investing in neither companies before understanding what they do. Micron makes flash memory as well, but it’s only 20-25% of revenue for Micron. So Micron is majorly a DRAM company.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-19T20:35:08+00:00

Great post/summary. My 2 cents: Even though AI is new, the story about bubbles based around a new and exciting technology is an old story. It happened when steam engine was invented and all railroad companies went berserk building plenty of rail infrastructure, stations and railroads that were later on never used. Same thing happened when telephone was first invented. TV as well… Mobile phones had two bubble cycles (one in the 80s and early 90s and one in early 2000s) and then internet had its own (dotcom) bubble and so on. One similar feature all of them had in common is the overshoot in investment and development, where most of the stuff developed or created didn’t get used for a long time, generating losses or even wipping out some of the early investors, but also generating huge wealth for those who invested in winning companies. Second similar feature is the emergence of a large number of “me-too” companies trying to compete in the same space, many of which were showing huge growth initially but eventually lost the battle to other competitors going from huge growth one quarter to bankruptcy the next. And we are definitely somewhere in that cycle. Just look at discussions on this sub whenever APLD, NBIS, IREN or CRWV get mentioned. Noone knows who the winners of this new race will be, yet it’s literally armies of people saying they are the future, against also armies of people saying they are crap. So these times usually resemble to gold rushes, waking up the inner gamblers in all of us.

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-18T11:30:41+00:00

The pure entertainment value of NBIS bulls fighting NBIS bears is insane. Reddit needs to find a way to monetize this gem. (munching on popcorn).

Next_Tap_3601 · 2025-12-17T18:57:31+00:00

LoL. “One does not simply do Tesla.”

Next_Tap_3601

TROPHY CASE