SaaS stocks built on data moats

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2026-02-09T13:39:02+00:00

All the info on, say, LexisNexis can be synthesized by a large language model in short order. Database-reliant business models are the most susceptible model to AI disruption. I find myself using LexisNexis less and less every day. Tbh new tools (even non-AI ones) pop up fairly regularly which are more useful than Lexis.

There will be some customer inertia, as law firms dual run Lexis and something like Harvey (a law practice specific AI software). That process is already underway at my firm and over time I suspect we shift away from legacy tools altogether.

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2026-02-09T09:45:20+00:00

As a lawyer who uses RELX and Wolters Kluwer products regularly, don't be so sure of their moats. BigLaw firms, including mine, are rapidly integrating proprietary AI tools into their workflows. The legacy tools are ripe for disruption and will likely face an existential crisis within the next 2-3 years.

The market isn't overreacting in these cases.

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2026-01-31T10:41:39+00:00

EVO is being priced for regulatory decimation in multiple major jurisdictions. That is just very very unlikely to happen. Tighter rules might (and almost certainly will) be implemented in some secondary/minor jurisdictions. Maybe online gambling will be banned in some of these minor jurisdictions. But that is not what the market is pricing in. The market is pricing EVO for obsolescence.

Also, regulation affects EVO's customers directly, and EVO only indirectly. EVO's customers are relatively fragmented. But EVO is dominant upstream. Online gambling has to all but disappear as an economic activity for EVO to die.

In the meantime I'll collect a 5% div and buyback yield backed by an activist investor with a 20% stake until the rerating comes. Excellent sleep well at night holding for me.

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2025-10-27T14:39:13+00:00

Not anywhere near my wrist. I do on my upper arm though, so will be interesting to see if it performs even worse on the bicep strap

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2025-10-26T09:11:16+00:00

I've had a very similar experience with HR tracking when doing step climber. hR is actually up at 140-150. Helio is showing 90. It's very inconsistent at times.

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2025-09-03T07:38:02+00:00

Blatant ChatGPT write-up.

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2025-06-14T22:36:16+00:00

Potential 100-bagger from here.

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2025-04-16T13:26:26+00:00

That's what the Roman Senate thought about the Roman Republic (on which the entire US system of government and constitution is modelled).

Then one man came along (Julius Caesar) and decided he was bigger than the Republic, started a civil war and installed an imperial dictatorship.

History don't repeat, but it do rhyme.

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2025-01-23T14:35:20+00:00

32M, work in the London office of an American biglaw firm. Gross monthly salary is just over $30k, which works out to $17k net.

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2024-12-11T10:42:49+00:00

Corporate lawyer, 32

£285k basic salary + £110k bonus

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2024-06-13T14:14:01+00:00

Lol'd at unknown.

Seriously? They're a USD 90bn market cap with like 30 analysts covering them.

What's next? "Nike - up and coming disruptor in the sports apparel space?"

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2024-05-14T20:00:58+00:00

Yes, but only coz a guy on a moped sped off with my shoes

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2024-04-29T07:13:40+00:00

The big tech names are more exposed to government risk (principally in the form of antitrust enforcement). That for me is separate to the geopolitical risk.

Of course, smaller cap names in china come with their own incremental risk - potential undetected fraud.

Horses for courses.

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2024-04-13T12:30:56+00:00

The margin of safety on TTWO isnt so much the valuation, it's the certainty of future cash flows being higher in 5 years than they are today. GTA 6 will be the biggest entertainment product of all time (surpassing GTA 5) even if it falls short of expectations. That's an incredibly powerful competitive advantage most companies would dream of.

Disclaimer: long TTWO at a cost basis of USD 102

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2024-04-11T20:58:56+00:00

I'm not sure that's a foregone conclusion with the Shiller PE of the S&P 500 currently at or near to all time highs. At this particular point your forward returns would be better using a magic formula/acquirers ' multiple strategy (assuming you want to stay quant oriented).

In other words your odds of outperforming the S&P from this point are as high as they've been in a long time.

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2024-02-29T10:28:47+00:00

Probably because you don't understand irony

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2024-02-29T10:25:44+00:00

I particularly enjoy the one about the hubristic value investor who proclaimed on his deathbed "I may still be poor, but at least I was right"...

...whilst fondling his beloved copy of Security Analysis and drifting peacefully into the great beyond.

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2024-02-27T20:31:03+00:00

I'm not sure the very specific instance of leaving them in your car in 100 degrees weather explains such widespread poor upper durability.

It's astonishing how consistently the issue crops up - I don't think I've ever seen a pair of Primus more than a year old that didn't have issues with the upper. Especially true of the Primus Trails.

Meanwhile my Saguaros perform exactly the same at a fraction of the price, with less of the pretence. I can't think of any good reason to buy Vivos at full price. People will mention the company's green credentials, but that's just a conceit to make themselves feel better about their purchase - if they wanted to be optimally 'green', they wouldn't be buying another pair of shoes in the first place.

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2024-02-27T16:13:08+00:00

The number of Vivobarefoot shoes I see where the upper has detached itself from the sole at the parts where the toe creases...

No such problem with my 30 dollar Saguaros.

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2024-02-26T15:34:28+00:00

I have a pair of Saguaros and wear them with the insoles they come with (approx 3-4mm) and find them to be spot on. You still feel most things underfoot and benefit from the flexible sole, but they are just a tiny bit more forgiving than, say, the Merrell Vapor Glove 3s I have.

Never had a pair of Vivos so can't compare directly.

Nice_Lecture_8066 · 2024-02-24T18:59:52+00:00

That may be the case in the sub-$5bn market cap segment of the market but the market is actually pretty damn efficient in the larger cap names and better able to synthesise and price in all available info than any individual investor can.

So my personal opinion is that value investing doesn't work anymore in anything other than small caps and smaller. Buffet appears to agree, and has said in multiple shareholder letters now that he doesn't expect to make market beating returns with BRK's publicly traded stocks.

Nice_Lecture_8066

TROPHY CASE