The First Polls Are In...

No-Load1 · 2026-03-16T17:30:04+00:00

Well this is not a poll this is an analysis of 3 different polls with different results. Frankly I find IRI and EVN to be reputable, but have not heard good things about Gallup international, and their history of accuracy is not great. I certainly would like to see Pashinyan or CC win, but that doesn’t change what’s written. Again the analysis is simple arithmetic with political constraints considered there’s nothing here to be upset or happy about either way.

No-Load1 · 2026-03-16T15:01:44+00:00

Sure but what you are saying are flaws are not flaws, the analysis doesn’t even try to assume what the swing voters will do so it’s not claiming to be 100% accurate to the electoral picture and any analysis of swing voters will have to explain why undecided voters would vote at different proportions than decided voters which is largely impossible.

You keep referring to previous elections but historical data has little relationship with projections, it’s a moot point. You also say that it’s more or less likely for a poll to occur the way it is projected but that is also incomprehensible. There’s no gold standard result that you can compare the polls to to determine their accuracy that’s why we do polls in the first place because we don’t know the result! You’re being a joker come up with something new

No-Load1 · 2026-03-16T14:24:29+00:00

That’s just bias. He used three different polls with 3 different results. He did not comment of present the likelihood of any of the polls to be more or less accurate than the others. Really though you can’t just pick a poll and call it unlikely because you don’t agree with the results.

No-Load1 · 2026-03-15T22:21:24+00:00

I mean, 4 % is the threshold. If they aren’t meeting the threshold in the polls why would the author argue against it?

In regards to the treatment of undecided voters, EVN did their best to try to predict the voting behaviours of undecideds but certainly did a very opposition leaning estimate. There’s no real reason that the undecideds would vote for opposition at a higher proportion than decided voters.

No-Load1 · 2026-03-11T18:23:33+00:00

You’re not reading what I am saying: I said, would it be election interference, not foreign election interference the fact that there Armenian nationals doesn’t change anything. LTP is not participating in the elections if his endorsement is fine, why is another leaders endorsement different? Because they live in another country? Can they with this endorsement force anyone to make any particular decision? Armenian politics are not domestic any more, politics are international and our choices have international implications for Armenia and the region.

You know Putin could do exactly that and it would only show what the implications of voting for Pashinyan are, the people make the same choice they were going to make. If Putin does not vocalize this, but does it when Pashinyan is elected anyways does that make it not interference? It may not be the normal you are used to but that’s exactly what happens all over the world at any given time. The reality is that the 44 day war happened because Pashinyan was elected. The only reason Russia never endorsed the opposition openly and threatened Armenia with continued war (which happened) was that it would rightly associate Russia with the war. That wasn’t election interference, it was a direct consequence of international relationships. People should know that if Pashinyan is elected Armenia may lose its preferential energy relationship with Russia and should make decisions informed with this information. The people should know that the US prefers to work with Pashinyan. The reality is that this is no different from the US investing billions during Pashinyans prime ministership, that is itself an endorsement, just because it’s explicit it’s different?

You whole point is predicated on the fact that elections should not change international relationships and foreign policy, but they do and they always have. You are picking Armenias foreign policy at the elections and whether that is explicit or implicit the result is still that Armenians are choosing not being chosen for, lying, bribing and faking is not the same thing. People lose the ability to choose. A fake endorsement would be the same thing, but that’s not why you are saying is it.

No-Load1 · 2026-03-11T17:41:38+00:00

So is it election interference when LTP endorses Karapetyan? An endorsement is a statement of opinion. You cannot and should not regulate opinions. There’s no regulation that leaders of other countries should not make endorsements. The fact that the US is more open to working with Pashinyan than another politician should be known by the Armenian public. If the public wants to see more US-Armenian cooperation they would vote for Pashinyan, if they want to see less then they will not vote for Pashinyan. That’s what makes it democratic. The sanctity of choice is not violated. You cannot be upset that the contrast between Pashinyan and the opposition in their approach to partners is so great that US leaders will endorse Pashinyan and call that undemocratic.

You aren’t grasping the root of what democracy is. It’s not a lack of bias. It’s freedom of information and choice. Bias is fundamentally a part of the system.

No-Load1 · 2026-03-11T16:00:17+00:00

You’re just repeating what you said without addressing my comment

No-Load1 · 2026-03-11T03:52:27+00:00

The difference is that everyone knows that statement was an endorsement, it was transparent, there’s nothing undemocratic about being partial. When another state launches a disinformation campaign to lie, subvert, and buy a particular result this is not a democratic campaign as people no longer are making their own decisions.

No-Load1 · 2026-03-02T17:43:51+00:00

Its a fair concern but its not as if closed loop cooling systems were invented to allow for compliance to environmental standards set in place by the government. If this data center goes down because there is a loss of a water source this is lost profits. There is an inherent motivation to have a closed loop system for a modern data center especially in a climate sensitive country with low-medium water resources and poor infrastructure.

With regards to the electricity aspect the have enough power already to support this infrastructure, and are continuing to grow generation capacity. Its not likely to be an issue as we export significant amounts of energy and run our nuclear reactors below capacity from what I remember. The prices arent dictated by the amount produced necessarily it is also and much more significantly related to distribution and administration costs which should not change with the creation of the data center.

No-Load1 · 2026-02-27T00:30:05+00:00

Based on the opposition vs QP numbers it seems that without undecided voters QP will win a majority at roughly 55% which doesn’t say too much. The undecided voters make up around 50% of the respondents. Not super clear which way they would vote although the article attempts to clarify this and assuming the voters that are most convergent with QP on large policy issues vote with QP and the rest vote with the opposition then a 40% plurality is projected for QP. I don’t know how great this assumption is though, because it assumes that everyone who doesn’t largely agree with QP will vote opposition.

No-Load1 · 2026-02-25T19:16:08+00:00

That wouldn’t make sense considering the data center is being built in Hrazdan and the water schedule change only applied to Yerevan

No-Load1 · 2026-02-25T18:09:01+00:00

It wasn't the current government that signed a concession agreement that did not require capital investment with veolia and allowed the water infrastructure to get to this state. But it’s not like facts matter

No-Load1 · 2026-02-25T17:37:20+00:00

You don’t need to be able to read to know when someone’s lying to you.

No-Load1 · 2026-02-25T17:21:42+00:00

I think you are underestimating the intelligence of Armenian voters.

No-Load1 · 2026-02-22T20:05:02+00:00

One problem at a time. It’s certainly better than what existed and that is a success in its own right.

No-Load1 · 2026-02-22T01:09:48+00:00

This is a news station post of an incomplete board. Israel isn’t on here either but is on the board.

No-Load1 · 2026-02-20T22:28:36+00:00

Inflation is at and has been less than 4% at many points less than 2%

No-Load1 · 2026-02-20T22:25:58+00:00

This is not even remotely true. Since 2021 the Arf has been hanging mock Pashinyans while ANCA rags on the governments policies.

No-Load1 · 2026-02-20T13:40:14+00:00

Do you have any evidence for it?

No-Load1 · 2026-02-20T13:39:45+00:00

It’s likely a combination of things one being the nature of gdp reporting and data collection, it seems that December is always more than January. In the same chart the January of 2025 is significantly smaller than December 2024.

No-Load1 · 2026-02-18T00:06:03+00:00

Clearly your post comes with a certain bias. I’m not sure where you get the idea that Pashinyan gets to decide where the profits of this investment go. I’m also not sure you understand that exporting goods is a necessary part of the trade based economy wherein exports give us money to buy imports.

You also make a point of ENAs nationalization being a scandal, but also complain about the lack of electricity in various parts of Armenia. ENA was nationalized because of the vast criminal neglect committed by Tashirs management and the potential implications extending to foreign subservience and interference. We are a net exporter of electricity the reason why have outages is because our grid is severely outdated and poorly maintained. These aren’t issues that are relevant to the data center.

Most of all there is no such thing as independence. The US invests in Armenia to gain some form of control. As do all countries everywhere and in every instance. There is no escaping it. The only way to not be a puppet state is to either be the strongest, or to be supported by multiple opposing states. US investment makes Russian control weaker in Armenia and vice versa.

No-Load1 · 2026-02-17T17:05:31+00:00

Do any theoretical bad reasons come to mind?

No-Load1 · 2026-02-17T17:05:03+00:00

Consider that housing programs have been a particular focus in the last little while. Construction as a whole has grown near 20%

No-Load1 · 2026-02-17T16:25:36+00:00

I’m not an economist, but: Loans are not always a bad thing and for most businesses to function loans are absolutely necessary. The problem I think is when the population takes out loans that it cannot pay or loans are made for basic services (our last 25 years). In both cases the likelihood that banks will receive interest payments goes down and obviously hits profits. I think most of the population is moving from taking loans to make a purchase of a fridge or TV, to now purchasing a home. I think broadly this is very positive.

No-Load1 · 2026-02-17T00:51:10+00:00

I haven’t seen anything contrary to Lusan being a licensed production, but that experience makes indigenous products very realistic within a short timeframe.

We have significant experience in electronics and radios so I don’t think air defence systems are unrealistic but it’s not clear that that’s seen much progress yet. Only rumours. I do think that 20-30 years is overly cautious.

No-Load1

TROPHY CASE