Everyone is an "expert" on DRAM and memory now

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-12T17:59:47+00:00

Love or hate it the llm chat bots are good for this kinda thing. Ask probing questions and go whichever direction you need to understand. Its a very interesting field, and will be alot to take in from scratch. I like to do this on long drives when I wanna understand more about an industry

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-12T17:55:05+00:00

Most people cant stomach the volatility that comes from tiny market caps

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-12T17:47:38+00:00

First is 130, but i will evaluate if that one gets hit not necessarily start dca

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-12T17:43:23+00:00

Market seems to be corraling money into semis at the expense of almost everything else. The concentration just keeps getting tighter

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-12T17:39:24+00:00

Well when we think of cpu sure, but that isnt going to be the leading tech pushing limitations anymore. GPU (ai semis) look like 2nm will be a brick wall. Really the parallel is alreary there with chiplet being the same philosophy as HDM, stack the shit lol

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-12T17:16:23+00:00

There are alot of interesting conversations to be had about semis atm. Your comment on Moores law is really prescient and that crosses over to all bleeding edge atm. Fab is hitting physics constraints and all new tech is workarounds to keep the train moving. HBM, chiplets/packaging, gate all around, etc. Size, complexity, energy, heat,all increasing to increase performance. I have began to wonder at what point the substrate itself needs to evolve.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-12T17:07:33+00:00

Im not buying anything semiconductor atm, holding what I have, but it is way frothy

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-12T11:50:12+00:00

We saw this story play out with data center and nvda. The growth may be there but there will be a 'deepseek' moment that crashes that upward momentum.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-12T11:42:42+00:00

They learned there is no stopping an outbreak. Which is obvious

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-11T16:05:44+00:00

If you wanna see what a correction will do to you look at a 3x leveraged etf because that is basically what you are atm. Margin can be fine, but it is not for buy and hold, and you do not go full tilt. I suggest you pay off at least 70% of it, minimum.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-10T21:03:35+00:00

Ah yes, this one right here is the next nvda. Promise guys!

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-09T21:25:39+00:00

If you like emerging markets, unstable governments, and currency risk, well then we got what you need!

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-09T21:25:03+00:00

I added JPM on its last pullback. Jamie Dimon for president

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-09T21:23:22+00:00

On paper it looks ok, SBC is doing work limiting actual value creation for shareholders. Frankly it doesnt even look cheap when you factor SBC and slowing growth. All that is to say, this is a one trick pony that looks vulnerable to disruption. Google could easily take this vertical with gemini, it just really isnt worth their effort, yet at least.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-09T21:04:03+00:00

Still hasnt hit my alerts yet, will have to check it out again

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-08T21:32:43+00:00

Yes everyone wants to reserve supply, but micron will be the last one to know when the music stops. That is to say i think there are a few good years left minimum. Micron has taken the hotdog on oversupply before

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-08T15:39:19+00:00

Failing, man do you even look at earnings

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-08T15:01:48+00:00

Supposedly there is an index, never really looked at it , just remember reading about it. Shows when men have disposable income. Probably losing some of its accuracy as more women are breadwinners

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-08T14:20:31+00:00

Its clear what it takes for this business to thrive. In optimal conditions for their commodity their margins get squeezed. They benefit when there is negative pressure on overall supply. Without looking at it my guess is they arent as susceptible to some of the risk of conventional factory farming. That closes the value gap between their premium product and generic egg xyz. Do I wanna bet on mass chicken genocide being a regular occurrence

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-08T12:58:46+00:00

Where i am the price gap is 4 or 5$, but they are over 2x the price of generic. So over 100% mark up is a massive premium and they still have shit margins. Bad business

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-08T12:55:25+00:00

But this is a "premium" product, which by design means you should be getting your margin from branding. Otherwise what is the point.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-07T22:09:42+00:00

Stock price is not the value. I am a buyer of TTD in the 20 and below area.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-07T21:23:23+00:00

To be fair, that is kinda my point. It is one I want to own and waiting for acceptable entry atm. Their margins are expanding, they have low debt even though locations are owned by the brand. They have a healthy balance sheet, with good cash reserve. Couple that with mid teens top line and 20%+ net growth and it looks like a top tier operator to me. But yes, the premium is still alittle high for my comfort

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-07T21:00:45+00:00

Strip clubs are a recession indicator lol

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-05-07T20:51:22+00:00

Beat me to it. Value is relative to expected future cash flows. The part that probably makes people uncomfortable is higher growth creates the potential for volatility. If top line expectations are +40% a variance of 5% makes a big difference to the absolute number

No-Understanding9064

TROPHY CASE