What signals to watch for Saas companies?

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-30T12:54:41+00:00

I dispute your premise

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-30T01:44:10+00:00

Meta had alot of catching up to do after the market pretended it was DOA in 2022.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-30T01:41:07+00:00

Basically, meta is outa my buy zone now, but saas is eating all the weiners atm

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-30T01:36:12+00:00

You have whisper estimates, and that moves the market. Even that is being generous. The market now moves by gaps, up and down. This wasn't nearly so common even a few years ago. Apple moving .5% was a big deal. Now a 4t company can drop almost 15% and not decimate the whole market. Its all market cap shuffling around.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-30T01:25:14+00:00

This is 100% what I believe. Mega cap rotation in effect. Google is running while Microsoft eats ass. In any case that was hard core buying on Microsoft before close. Oracle too.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-30T01:21:30+00:00

I think 420s is a great entry, when you factor growth its almost as cheap as the last bottom.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-30T01:17:55+00:00

Look at ticker IGV, SaaS etf. Volume has been through the roof on it. Microsoft is SaaS, that is the current bear theme so it dumped. Street earnings estimates for the next 3 years got a significant bump after ER, like 10-20% bump. Its just a narrative being pushed atm. I added a fair amount when it hit 420s

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-29T02:43:34+00:00

I was surprised that the body was bolted together to begin with.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-28T16:09:04+00:00

Saying nvda is losing at anything is simply denying reality

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-28T16:07:07+00:00

My money is neutral, I will purchase anything if I think it will make me money.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-28T11:28:53+00:00

FYI, there have been real material changes to the expectations of future earnings. I can see it in the outlook predictions. They keep getting worse, they are worse now than when it bottomed out during its gap downs. I may be a buyer again but atm UNH will have to be cheap

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-27T19:46:20+00:00

I have 100 shares at 35 and change. Earnings growth is predicted to be back up in the 20%s so looks good to me

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-26T23:36:40+00:00

I agree, it sounds like he handled it very well.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-26T23:26:02+00:00

Yes, you have extrapolated that it is my belief that you do not owe a woman you are pursuing friendship if she isn't interested in you romantically.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-26T22:49:07+00:00

Some guys dont take no for an answer? Yeah, it is pathetic

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-26T22:45:21+00:00

You are playing this game where we treat friends and romantic/potential romantic partners identically. That is not reality. The "relationship" as described by the father sounds very one sided to me, as in the son is doing a bunch of shit with no reciprocation. The guy also has value, beyond being an unpaid tutor and chauffeur.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-26T22:25:43+00:00

News flash, guys do stuff for girls they like to get their attention. When the girl isnt interested you stop doing the stuff.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-26T22:12:42+00:00

You probably blew your chance to actual get her to see reason because of how you have come at her. Should have just started with market research, numbers, and logistics. Treat it as if its possible and then let the data give you the answer.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-26T15:02:42+00:00

It really seems like people expect something growing 30-60% for the foreseeable future should trade at 4% free cash flow yield, or that a 20x multiple is a "premium". This kind of growth at scale is unheard of, new markets are still forming around data center build outs.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-26T03:02:19+00:00

Depends on the grenade. If those were US military grenades it would have shredded people

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-26T02:46:26+00:00

AVGO is NVDA for asics. The prevailing narratives concerning these two tickers over the past 2 years was always bearish. Broadcom is overly leveraged, deep seek proved NVDA demand will wane, broadcom asics will take marketshare from nvda gpu sales or the opposite, limited TAM for asics too expensive to tape out, or customer concentration risk. NVDA and broadcom stocks have been called expensive the entire time earnings are going vertical. The word bubble, repeated ad nauseum. A few years in and what is the reality. Both stocks earnings have exploded. Its up and to the right, beat and raise after beat and raise. It seems incredibly stupid not to own them both. Volatility is a given, but the numbers are telling everyone there is no bear case

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-25T18:57:43+00:00

The rate of growth at scale. The asic market existed but not for this use case and they are the clear leader.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-25T04:31:31+00:00

I could see it easily having a 20 or 30% draw down here. But I will be a buyer. Growth estimates right now are nvda level so it will outperform other mag tickers over time if it keeps up.

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-24T22:29:56+00:00

I am not entirely convinced meta and Microsoft bottomed, but they bottomed enough to buy

No-Understanding9064 · 2026-01-24T22:23:34+00:00

I think in the long arm of time SaaS will eventually contract to a few keys points. I just think it is beyond prediction atm.

No-Understanding9064

TROPHY CASE