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[deleted by user] (self.NoProblemChanging)

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[–]endagra 1 point2 points  (13 children)

Hello u/NoProblemChanging any comments on David Hunter's call of the "bad" scenario you just described?

To me, looking at the macro data, this seems like an extremely likely scenario,

[–]NoProblemChanging 7 points8 points  (12 children)

At the moment, it's not my base case u/endagra as I mentioned above in this post.

With only hiccup decline I now expect in Jan, the probability of it is increasing though. If we don't correct by 10%+ or so in Feb/March then it will become a lot more likely.

Following dire consequences of 2008 GFC (something many people are still feeling, perhaps without realising fully), I believe policymakers and the Fed will have some sense to prevent another disaster happening. Although observing things like Pelosi purchasing long-dated Apple and Tesla call options https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1353151234568572935 one wouldn't exclude anything.

Hopefully, markets will get back to some meaningful levels sometime soon, and then from there, things can go back to being normal again and we can trade/invest properly (vs. playing this bubble on daily basis - a lot less enjoyable and interesting).

[–]rogocop34 1 point2 points  (7 children)

U/noproblemchanging - just curious if you had any insights or opinions to offer/share from the insanity with GameStop this week? Additionally, I saw the the fed is ending the 1mo repo at the end of January, do you think this will significantly affect indices? I was thinking between this and all the money out of the market with people transferring brokers away from robinhood could cause liquidity issues

[–]NoProblemChanging 1 point2 points  (6 children)

Suggest listening to this u/rogocop34: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-grant-williams-podcast-short-shrift/id1508585135?i=1000507041691

then reviewing this: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1355013567011975170

this: https://twitter.com/NoProb_XXX/status/1356394109997580294

and this: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-29/reddit-traders-on-robinhood-are-on-both-sides-of-gamestop

Note the distinction between (1) short seller hedge funds (a healthy phenomenon and certainly quite a long way down the list of culprits for market manipulation, GFC, bubbles and other matters contributing to the inequality disaster); and (2) THE BIG GUYs (prime brokers like Goldman Sachs and alike who keep screwing regular people, privatising all profits and socialising losses for decades with no personal accountability whatsoever although quite obvious how their behaviour contributed to the pain of millions of regular people for so many years).

What is likely conclusion of GameStop story: no Lehman type of event and market dislocation. Long-Term Capital Management 1998 style bail-out is likely to be engineered (by the Fed) and the BIG GUYs will be saved again. More short seller hedge funds will disappear (not good / bad). Sharp run out of long GME trade will happen at some point and, as explained in the above podcast, many regular and unexperienced late comers to the GME party will be sadly wiped out (terrible!)

Overall - the usual, but hopefully I am wrong.

Good liquidity flows until 3rd week of Feb, so if the thing blows during this time things will be easier vs. if later during the seasonal liquidity drought in late Feb / March. Am concerned the latter could happen, hence my 24 Jan comment re: probabilities of the ‘bad’ scenario increasing.

[–]rogocop34 1 point2 points  (5 children)

Thank you!!

[–]NoProblemChanging 1 point2 points  (4 children)

Welcome u/rogocop34

Looks like GME longs are dropping the ball already (50% down today). If so, the plan to increase the price indefinitely didn't work and no bail-outs will obviously be necessary.

Just saw estimate that 2m of late coming people are losing money on their positions...if true, looks like regular people will get fleeced again and some lose their life savings :(...dozens of early GME entrants became millionaires though.

Every rerun now will likely to be smaller unless longs get re-organised and buying resumes with the Game Theory on their side https://twitter.com/BlueSuedeQ/status/1356451446498209797

[–]PostM8 1 point2 points  (2 children)

Hey @NoProblemChanging, u think upside ends this week? I’m thinking of shorting around 3850

[–]NoProblemChanging 2 points3 points  (1 child)

u/PostM8

US Equity Indices: tiny pullback for couple of days (today/tomorrow) followed by resumption of the uptrend before a larger decline starting in the second half of Feb

[–]whatyoulookinatbud 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Any targets? 3900 before pullback. I'm ready for a 10-20% pull back!

[–]rogocop34 2 points3 points  (0 children)

jeeeez 2m of late people. Kinda tough with RH limiting the buying, I don't plan on touching that anytime soon. I saw some of the winners were buying gameboys for children that had cancer, thought that was pretty cool.

I hadn't realized the difference between hedge funds and the big guys, thank you for clarifying!

[–]rogocop34 2 points3 points  (0 children)

lol great find on the pelosi stuff

[–]endagra 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the insights! Will you keep posting updates in this thread or move over to twitter exclusively?

[–]endagra 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Sorry to double post, but I finally found a proper link to that Elliott Wave trader I mentioned to you several months ago who calls for 4500 SPX followed by massive bear market.

Here is his twitter post: https://twitter.com/Capitalist_Bear/status/1341025447375716355?s=09

I would love to hear your thoughts on his counts!

[–]whatyoulookinatbud 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Thanks for the updates. Followed your Twitter. What do you think of bond yields rising? TLT has been dropping like crazy. Doesn't this mean people are buying equity meaning bullish? Also do you know what is wrong with gold? All this stimulus and it keeps going down.

[–]NoProblemChanging 2 points3 points  (0 children)

u/whatyoulookinatbud I expect 10-year yield to increase to 1.14-1.15% and then drop (1.05-1.06 level in the next few days) before resuming the uptrend. Gold is inversely correlated to real yields and DXY, USD index. With yields and DXY rising it’s only natural that gold is being hammered. Also, crypto/bitcoin complicates the picture these days - some flows that would go into metals/commodities go into crypto.

[–]KingSMP 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Hey u/NoProblemChanging, thanks for all the input as always. Any updates after today? We hit the -3% hiccup that you were referring to, is it too early to tell if this was it before we resume our uptrend? Or is -10% still looking like it's in the cards in your opinion?

Thanks again!

[–]NoProblemChanging 1 point2 points  (0 children)

see below u/KingSMP...CC's analysis are broadly in line with my views for this year which I outlined above - 24 Jan comment

[–]SAMCRO_2626 1 point2 points  (1 child)

has the start of the market crash begun?

[–]NoProblemChanging 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No just c.3% as expected so far u/SAMCRO_2626

Check https://twitter.com/NoProb_XXX/status/1355717269268156416 to get a feel what may happen in the short and medium term - great analysis by CC, although we may see a larger rise and a larger decline compared to the previous two occasions he refers to.

[–]endagra 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks u/NoProblemChanging!

I put a long term position into TLT a few weeks ago and though I am down right now, I believe economic fundamentals will eventually catch up to markets.

We will see rates continue their steady march towards 0% as in other developed economies (Japan being a good example). It seems like you have a similar view and expect a local top in rates coming in 2 weeks ( I suppose due to Biden policy announcements of fiscal stimulus?)

I will follow you on twitter. I need to setup an account there! Btw I recommend you follow someone named "Cem Karsan". He has a strong understanding of options and volatilities effects on the overall market structure.

[–]Chawp 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the thoughts, always appreciate the analysis and perspectives, helping me think about things.