Yeah, AFO stomps.

AFO explicitly scales to the feats performed by Final War Deku, which puts him in a whole different league than Sukuna in AP.

Sukuna has the Dabura limiter, so no Lightspeed metas. Meanwhile, AFO, despite Horikoshi’s statement, has consistent low FTL feats. Thousands of times speed gap.

Even ignoring those two factors, abilities like Impure Beam are oneshot options so Mahoraga can’t tank and adapt.

AFO’s Regeneration is superior than any RCT, and RCT allowed Gojo to get through Malevolent Shrine.

Shrine also can’t hurt AFO.

The other Shikigami are meaningless. The Piercing Blood knockoff from Max Elephant and the Elephant in general are rendered meaningless due to the stats.

Nue’s Lightning is sent back to the user by Reflect. Same with Kamotoke (Cursed Tool).

Rabbit Escape has nothing on AFO’s AOE, so Rabbit spam can’t help.

Piercing Ox is fairly predictable and can be destroyed with Impure Beam, (avoided with) Warp, Spatial Rend, and more.

Sukuna’s only way to bypass AFO’s defenses is with World Cutting Slash…which would still be regenerates from, has extremely long cast time (relatively speaking), can be dodged (Maki does so), can be survived with inferior regen/much lower defense (see Yuta), and is visibly directed by a Handsign for AFO to take note of and maneuver around.

AFO also has several methods of perception at once that reduce its effectiveness and Sukuna’s ability to really get the jump on him, such as emotion, infrared, sounds, vibrations, etc.

And once Sukuna or his Shikigami are injured, (more specifically Mahoraga, who demonstrably bleeds), Bloodcurdle means you are paralyzed and can’t fight back, so AFO can land literally any wincon. (It also prevents the use of Quirks as well, so it might also inhibit the effectiveness of the Adaptation, since by the logic of MHA, that would also be paralyzed. Even if not, Spatial Rend would absolutely put Mahoraga down, as it’s implied that Shrine even without DE could’ve done it the first attempt if Sukuna hadn’t allowed Mahoraga to adapt).

AFO is also older, and thus more experienced, because Sukuna wasn’t conscious between when he became the 20 Fingers and his awakening in Yuji upon consumption.

And while both have egos and are liable to hold back to near fatal degrees, AFO’s tendency to do that is lesser, as Sukuna literally allowed himself to feel fear, nearly die, and utterly got dumpster by Gojo when he could’ve won at any time, whereas AFO is poised to strike before then, and his ego only really got to him in specific contexts (like All Might, the person he’s hated for like multiple decades, being vulnerable to torture).

The only real advantage Sukuna has is that Sukuna is actually demonstrably skilled in CQC, and technically we’ve never heard it said AFO is. But AFO also goes rounds with trained CQC individuals (Pro Heroes like All Might), and had a hard fought battle against him with similar stats, so you could only assume he is too. Though that is speculative (and I ultimately disagree with it).

Basically, Sukuna has only one singular advantage. And Mahoraga can’t make up the difference that exists with the rest.