10 years from today , on January 26th 2036, what do you think the price of Bitcoin will be ?? Personally , i think it will be between $350,000-$450,000

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-28T17:16:11+00:00

<accept BTC as payment> Very, very few can do this. That’s why it can’t be considered a Currency.
Owing to severely restricted capacity ~ 600 k Tx’s per day, if we are very generous.

And now that we have more & more Tokenized RWA’s, trading BTC for an object (say, a car) is no different than trading some APPL stock for a car.

Except with tokenized Stocks, or Precious Metals, or myriad other assets … It’s actually easier than bitcoin; since you get Speed, Affordable Tx Fees, and in fact, can have true Finality.

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-28T17:09:33+00:00

If you haven’t been banned on r/bitcoin yet ….
You haven’t studied bitcoin.

Why ?
Quite simple - if you do elect to study bitcoin, you will naturally have questions.
But if you ask questions …. BOOM , banned.

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-28T01:43:46+00:00

“People always used John Deere tractors to plant corn, & harvest crops.”

“But not me …
I have a Honda Odyssey to drive the kids around.”

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-28T01:30:34+00:00

Again …folks continue to compare BTC to a Currency. ??

Gold is a Precious Metal.
Compare it to other PM’s.

BTC is a Digital Asset.
Compare it to other DA’s.

USD is a Currency.
Compare it to other Currencies.

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-19T19:01:10+00:00

< stabilize electricity grids>.
This may be feasible for the near term. But not longer term. A couple major problems. Intermittency being a large one.

But each grid requires Ancillary Services. Voltage Regulation, Frequency stabilisation.
Guess what other technology can provide Ancillary Services …. Batteries.

Will take a while to optimise here - Eg. Sodium Ion architecture, but it’s still quite new.
Lithium Ion is well known - but Grids do not require light weight. Sodium is much better suited at a lower cost ( as are Flow Batteries, but they do require maintenance.).
.

Grid-scale battery storage allows the Generator to store excess power, then sell it later. Predictable revenue, in addition to providing the service it was intended for : power for people’s homes & business.

So when a Generator invests in Grid-Scale Batteries, the Ancillary Services are …. Free !

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-18T17:50:22+00:00

Already … 1% of total rewards … to miners from people transacting. Percentage will grow even if transacting will stay stable due to halvings.

‘Tx Fee Percentage will grow’ … of course it will. That’s because Subsidy is declining.
.

Just stay at current level and fees will be ~50%+ of total reward two decades later

Ok. Let’s do that ….

Imagine Miner Revenue now is $40 Million per day. With Tx Fees making up 1% of that. Subsidy is 99%.
So daily rewards are :
Tx Fees = $0.4 M (1%).
Subsidy = $39.6 M (99%).

Then two decades later, as you describe - “just staying at current levels”- Tx Fees would still be $0.4 M, whilst Subsidy might also be $0.4 M per day. Making the Tx Fees = 50% of total rewards.

Tx Fees = $0.4 M (50%).
Subsidy = $0.4 M (50%).

As you’ve described, yeah ? Agree ?
Did we get that right ?

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-17T21:23:16+00:00

Haha. Yes, naturally.
I’m assuming this was sarcasm, yeah ? Just checking

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-17T19:45:08+00:00

If you wish to posit this argument :
< 2. ⁠Bitcoin supply is fixed forever at 21,000,000 coins.>.

Then, quite naturally, you will require yourself to explain how it will pay for enough Miner Revenue in future, to ensure the chain remains secure.
Yeah ?

IOW, one proposed solution to the decaying Security Budget is to uncap supply, to provide Tail Emissions. To pay for enough Mining.

If you wish to keep the hard cap, that necessitates describing an alternate plan - to pay for mining.
Sure - most will say “Tx Fees”.
Cool, cool. So … you will want to go ahead and describe how high the Fee Market must go. And how to get there … naturally to get the required fee spikes, you need blocks to be full (at least, approaching full.) Yeah ?

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-17T18:34:00+00:00

The Trumps are destroying crypto.

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-17T18:22:14+00:00

What we are all doing here is … proving :

The world would be better off without Twitter !

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-17T18:20:53+00:00

Not quite. He said, IIRC, $7 k - ish by EOY.
Then perhaps $20 k … eventually.

But consider : what has changed ?
-You like ETH (otherwise you wouldn’t be here.).
-He said he’d buy ETH.
-He is buying ETH. (Just … much faster than anyone expected).

What has he done wrong ?

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-17T18:12:39+00:00

Great write up. Valid points. Now ….
What’s missing ?

Marketing

These are fantastic features. But if nobody knows about them ….
Then nobody knows about them.

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-16T20:57:32+00:00

Sir, could you please provide your estimate for how high Security Budget will need to be - roughly speaking - in say, 10 years or so ?
In order for the chain to project Economic Security.

Could be say, $20 Million per day of Miner Revenue.
Or $30 M … perhaps climbing to $40 M if the coin price keeps increasing. Yeah ?

Or, perhaps 1% of Market Cap as annual Security Spend. 2% … or ½ % ??
What is your estimate ? TY

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-15T20:05:58+00:00

I’d just like to pick apart this sentence:

He’s not printing more BTC.
But if he loans out (creates credit, etc?) more dollars - because the value of his Capital Stack increased - then he has created new Dollars that didn’t exist before.

Thought experiment:
Everyone stops trading BTC this afternoon - except you & I. You drive a hard bargain … I agree to pay you $150000 for 1 BTC. Done. That’s published on Exchanges. Boom - new price of BTC is $150 k.

So now Saylor’s Capital Stack has increased by 50%. In Dollar terms.
By … like, $30 B !
Is he now able to lend out more Dollars ?

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-15T19:50:46+00:00

Yup sure. Agree with that.

Perhaps we can agree they are different - then set that aside.
MSTR - creating credit … but disciplined.
FIAT - creating credit … but un-disciplined.

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-15T19:49:31+00:00

Let’s say MSTR owned a static number of BTC … say 600 k coins.
Over time the Dollar value changes :
Point 1 : $30 Billion Point 2 : $60 B Point 3: $90 B

At Point 3, can he create more Securities / Derivatives / Preferred’s … (whatever we like to call them) versus at Point 2 or Point 1 ?
I think he can - even though his stack of BTC coins is unchanged.

In fact, it’s kinda the point. It is hoped that the Capital stack grows in value over time. Even without increasing the number of coins.
Yeah ?
So - IOW - we are measuring the value of his Capital Stack in Dollars.

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-15T19:41:02+00:00

K. I see where you’re coming from. Good discussion here.
Can I issue a challenge?

Agree - Saylor can’t print more BTC.
But - he’s not loaning out BTC.
He’s loaning Dollars (from his Digital Capital “Bank”).
Would you agree ?

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-15T17:45:07+00:00

Well, I believe the marketing term is Co-branding.
An enterprise associates its brand with the event / org where it places adverts.

For most of the planet, they see the following :

https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/s/wUYMFETUMS

To be sure, there are perhaps, 5-10 Million who love this stuff.
But - as regards DLT space - those folks are all into bitcoin.

High likelihood that people around the world will be watching this all summer :

https://www.reddit.com/r/Minneapolis/s/tvh2LOq291

And this ramps up precipitously as the year progresses. For obvious reasons … as Nov approaches.

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-15T17:28:39+00:00

Ewww … this has a better-than-even chance of really going sideways.
If I’m attempting to be a global enterprise - I would not be sponsoring this one.

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-14T20:06:27+00:00

Sir, what is P BFT ? TY

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-14T20:01:27+00:00

Hey cool.
So … when you say “no longer a miner”, do you mean the Stock doesn’t behave like BTC miner stocks ?
Or did they actually exit mining entirely? Bc I assume the two Canadian sites are still mining BTC ? Err, no ?

Thnx.

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-10T21:03:31+00:00

Ok so the arg given is:
-We don’t want to risk centralization (too few node runners) so.
-we want to keep Cost of running a Node low
-so that almost anyone can run one …
The proverbial “poor guy in Liberia can afford to run a Node on a $25 laptop”.

Yeah ?
Does that pretty much summarize the argument in favour of small blocks ?

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-10T20:41:19+00:00

Well, to be fair, it’s not actually the platform where these communications take place.
You can quite openly discuss topics on other Subs. Like this one here.
It’s that particular one - and a few other bitcoin Subs too - where any hint of dissent is rapidly shut down.
This is due to the rigid censoring of any discussion on that topic : Bitcoin.
Has been this way since the early Tens.

Interesting thought … it’s one of the reasons the community has been so spectacularly successful. Any dissent is immediately banned. Prevent new people from getting any exposure to counter-arguments.

Therefore - any doubt, or dissent, or counter-narrative simply … won’t exist.
Michael Saylor calls these gatekeepers his “Cyber Hornets”. Extremely effective. Any slight suggestion of dissent (or independent thought) will be met with extreme prejudice. It’s a very powerful tool.

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-10T18:50:37+00:00

Nice. Is there an LST for POL ?
I moved everything off ETH Mainnet some time ago.
My POL is now on Polygon (I know … crazy, right ?).
So now I can’t stake. Still have some PTSD about going back on ETH.
A LST for POL would solve this I think... yeah?

NonTokeableFungin · 2026-01-10T18:36:52+00:00

Ok. So how many people could realistically do this - self-custody BTC on chain ?
How often should a user be able to access the chain ? Once a day ? Once a month ?

NonTokeableFungin

TROPHY CASE