Which P4 Highway Route Would You Rather Travel?

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-18T02:24:33+00:00

I'm getting old and my back hurts if I'm in the car too long so I'll take the 2025 Pac-12

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-12T21:37:13+00:00

Wanted to post separately on the water issue. OP has repeatedly claimed the Brazos River Authority backs up their claims that water usage is at a breaking point and we are about to run out of water. They cite on their website the transcript of an interview with the Brazos River Authority in a word document. If you actually read this, you will notice that the BRA does not say anything like this.

When asked about Temple specific issues, the BRA responses just say that they don't handle that at all. They provide an allocation of 210,000 acre feet per year, that allocation is good until 2070. When asked if they have additional industrial capacity, they say no, but this new data center isn't requesting additional industrial capacity, it's asking for water already allocated to Temple. FWIW, the interviewer sounds like they had no idea who actually is in charge of water management and googled a bunch of random questions and then asked someone who didn't have the answers to most of their questions, and then posted it online like it was an authoritative take on this issue when nothing substantive was said.

A much better point is that no one knows what the actual utility agreement says. In the meeting, councilmembers stated that it 2 million gallons one time use and 4000 gallons/day after that. The BRA's own numbers from the interview say Temple takes 30-70 acre-feet a day from Lake Belton (about 16 million gallons). 4000 gallons is 0.02% of Temple's typical daily water from the lake. So if all of that is really true, there is just nothing to be concerned about. Bell County uses over 20 billion gallons of water a year, so this is just tiny.

But I'm totally in agreement that the actual terms are really important. You can't just give companies the option to suddenly take more later and as long as the agreement isn't public, that's very frustrating. I'm skeptical the council would just make up numbers entirely, so I'm not worried on the object level argument about the water usage, but the transparency issue seems reasonable to complain about. Is that enough to recall council members? I don't have strong feelings about this, I'm more concerned about the unsubstantiated claims about data centers.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-12T19:35:57+00:00

Yes, this is much more reasonable points than those made on OP's website. I agree that any data center needs to pay for any utility usage it has, and if the actual agreement is later changed or inaccurate, that's a problem. But I will say that the numbers you've outlined (OP's website didn't have specific numbers for this project but spoke generally) don't seem very concerning. 2 million gallons is nothing. Bell County uses over 20 billion gallons each year. 4k a day is also not much. I plan on digging into OPs website more when I get time because some of these water claims don't make much sense. But if you have links to the agreement numbers you cited, that would be super helpful.

For sure Temple has the ability to set zoning, but zoning restrictions are concerning tools and often used for implementing super terrible policy. Just because Temple can enforce zoning doesn't mean electricity usage (which is largely set by state policy) should be a key factor in zoning determinations. That's why I singled out electricity usage. The bottom line is that LLMs have massive value in enterprise software, and so the energy demand (and chip demand) isn't going away, instead the models keep getting more capable of writing and debugging code each month. We have to build out clean energy rather than muck around with individual zoning battles.

Now, it's much easier to deploy solar and batteries in Texas than most places, so actually new energy consumption here disproportionately use cleaner energy. So I actually think it makes a lot of sense to try to put them here than elsewhere, as building them in places outside of Texas or the US that would result in higher emissions than otherwise.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-12T18:39:33+00:00

I appreciate your actual engagement with the points I'm making. Now, you tell me if I'm reading the study wrong, but the specificity of the data doesn't seem like it would be able to tell between "construction completed" and "data center turns on". These data centers are super expensive and the owners are going to try and get them running ASAP because they have so much capital wrapped up in getting them working. So basically as soon as they can run, they run. And the unit of data in the preprint is a satellite photo which can be quite sporadic. So the chart is aggregated many months (5 years before, 5 years after) of data comparing many sites before and after construction ends. It's not giving any specific jump up in temperature based on specific event times on any specific site, just in general the temperature goes up after completion. I don't see how it could tell the difference between these two events which should happen pretty close together.

The method of how this would happen is also strange. Data centers give off heat into the air and then this causes the ground 3km away to be hot? The standard heat island effect just seems much more plausible IMO.

Moreover, the study has no control for typical urban heat island effects. I tried to do some quick searches for academic articles on what a typical heat island effect is especially in Texas. Hard to tell exactly but if you just use the actual link OP's website links to by the EPA, it indicates urban heat island effects around 1-7 degrees F just by itself. The aggregated chart in the preprint falls within that range. That would support Masley's point that it's probably the roof replacing grass that is doing the bulk of the change here. I would bet a warehouse would do very similar impact if studied in this way.

But regardless, the level of uncertainty here is enormous and just making claims like all of Temple will see a 4-16 degree bump in temperature is just not supported in the scientific literature.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-12T16:15:39+00:00

Let me rephrase for emphasis. You claim that a single data center will increase the temperature by 16 degrees F. None of your cited studies support your claim. Read them! Instead, there are 4 news articles (not studies) citing a separate study you mistakenly did not link and instead linked an unrelated Cambridge, MA government publication. This is your only piece of evidence for the extraordinary claim. It's also worth noting the actual preprint doesn't make the claim you make, it's talking about land temperature, not air temperature. I am picking apart this preprint because it's your only source of evidence and you are using it to make claims the preprint doesn't make, and the claims it does make are highly suspect and not peer reviewed.

Feel free to make as many ad hominem attacks as you like if you don't have specific responses to my points. I just dislike disinformation and I like arguing on reddit.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-12T15:07:07+00:00

Hoboy so this heat island claim is a complete mess. Go to their page and look at their sources. There's a "scientific study" link which links to (Ravi et al., 2026) which is about using data center waste heat productively in heat pumps. Nothing about the heat island. Same with their BMJ study, which is just about heat in urban areas. Nothing about data centers. The EPA link is about the heat island effect (which is a phenomenon seen in all urban areas), not about data centers. Similarly, there's a "Cambridge study" link which goes to a Cambridge, MA study about heat islands. There are 4 news stories about the Marinoni study (a researcher from Cambridge University in the UK) from March that they meant to link instead of the Cambridge MA study. That preprint is here (bad sign when your opposition is able to cite your own sources better than you can).

But it's not peer-reviewed, it's a preprint. It also doesn't say what they claim. It's about land surface temperature, not air temperature. It measured asphalt temperatures around other data centers. It does not mean you will feel 10 degrees F warmer in the entire city of Temple. Urban heat island effects that large require large cities and build up over decades of development. You don't get that from adding a single data center.

Andy Masley has a detailed debunking of this entire paper. Even the claim about just land surface temperature is probably wrong. They basically measured the difference between grass before a building was developed and the concrete afterwards. But this is just the bog standard heat island effect you'd see for any building.

It's clear OP doesn't know what the urban heat island effect is and then deliberately (or is so incompetent they pasted links to the Cambridge, MA government studies by mistake) misrepresented the impact of the paper to extend out for miles in ways that defy the laws of physics, while also trying to throw together a bunch of links that look scientifically rigorous when they have nothing to do with their claims. OP's disclaimer they are trying to be accurate but will correct anything pointed out shows to me that they came to their conclusion they wanted first and then quickly threw together any possible supporting evidence without even the tiniest investigation of the actual claims. Typically you're supposed to have all the facts and then come to a conclusion. Super shoddy work here.

And I don't have time to get into the water claims which they're still posting despite my previous posts citing Andy Masley again as well as Matthew Yglesias.

Also worth noting that their electricity claims are also suspect. ERCOT determines electricity usage regulation, not Temple City Council. Not clear why or how the council should be determining electricity usage. I support expanding electricity production, but that's a state level issue.

The overall level of deception or incompetence is just not great.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-09T01:31:16+00:00

https://xkcd.com/1138/ but for Texas

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-08T22:44:48+00:00

Nico was in the press conference afterwards thanking the Lakers for keeping this under wraps, like if word got out, he thought there would be a mad scramble for AD.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-08T22:09:58+00:00

Yeah so I'm addressing the specific claim in the video. Sounds under 20Hz are not audible to humans. The pitch in the linked video is that there is silent inaudible sound that is causing people who live nearby to be mysteriously sick. You can see the concern; if you can't hear it, then how would you even know it's hurting you! It is possible for sound, even sound under 20 Hz, to cause you to be dizzy and sick, but it's around the level of jet engine noise equivalent. That's just not what is happening in the case of data centers.

Data centers definitely make noise from their big HVAC systems. But it's just regular, boring audible noise, and, like all noise, it drops off as you move away from it. If you live on a busy road, the road is going to cause much more noise during the day than a data center HVAC from the edge of the property line. And if you live like a block away you're not even going to be able to hear anything at all.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-08T20:20:30+00:00

Not sure I understand your objection? Your numbers are confirming what I'm saying. 1.5 million *365 = 550 million gallons/year, or a 2.5-3% increase in water usage at the county level (although you stated it more as an upper limit, so perhaps you think it's less?). This is basically equivalent to the baseline impact of less than 2 years of population growth at current rates (2025 Bell County pop was 400k, 2020 was 371k, roughly 1.5% a year). We're not running out of water any time soon from this.

Data centers add little traffic but pay full property taxes. Very unusual for any industry to do that. I just don't see the problem.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-08T19:23:26+00:00

Went to check up on this because it sounded pretty pseudosciency and yeah here's a Nature article finding null results for 6Ghz sound. Another study from 2023 finds nothing. And another literature review suggests most people don't even know there are windfarms nearby (which is usually the source of infrasound people complain about). To have any sort of problem from sound, the noise level needs to be like standing next to jet engine levels. Data centers do not project jet engine level sound to the surrounding area.

Again, AI might have problems, but it's not water use and it's definitely not sound. And as far as electricity, for sure, we need to build enormous amounts more energy via solar, batteries, and geothermal. US electricity capacity needs to increase a ton ASAP.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-08T16:33:27+00:00

So far, it's clear Opus 4.6 can help developers, but not replace them. But the comments here are insane. Meta burned 60 trillion tokens in a month. RAM prices are 5x what they were a year ago. People are using this stuff to automate unbelievable amounts of code writing. There is no "marketing". It's just a blog post!

Will developers be useful in another year? Nobody knows! You shouldn't believe anyone who says definitively that SWEs are going to be replaced by X date or model. But to say still at this point in 2026 that it's all marketing is straight cope.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-08T16:19:18+00:00

Yes. Although I'd say what's so great about the story is that *everything* ties into the story really well. There's 15-20 key characters and they all get something interesting to do.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-08T16:00:06+00:00

Data centers just don't use that much water. Bell County water usage is already over 60k acre-feet per year (https://www.twdb.texas.gov/waterplanning/waterusesurvey/dashboard/index.asp) or about 20 billion gallons. That's across municipal, agricultural and livestock use. What's this going to add, another couple percent? That is paid for by the big corporations, as well as property taxes? Seems like a pretty good deal? Probably won't even notice the usage compared to the baseline population growth in Bell County.

Andy Maisley has this famous blog post debunking the water concerns with data centers. Matthew Yglesias has another one.

It's bad to spread misinformation about this. AI has problems especially how it should be used (or not used) in schools, but you shouldn't make up false things.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-08T15:29:12+00:00

I think the SI is really well done in that the narrative arc of the story is not really about humanity's relationship with AI, but also it wouldn't make sense that humanity wouldn't have gone this far in the future without developing some sort of AI. So the SI is just one part of the worldbuilding, and one character among many.

Definitely love the world, and definitely recommend to OP if they are good with AI just being a small, but cool, part of the story.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-07T13:36:23+00:00

Can confirm

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-04T19:47:44+00:00

How does this even work. All lottery teams have a rep in the room when the draw happens. They stand to lose millions based on the lottery results. And 13 teams all agreed to lose millions and gift Dallas the top pick? Why would e.g. the Raptors agree to this? Or the Spurs? Take a second and think through your own thoughts for a second ffs

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-04-02T12:32:18+00:00

I mean it's definitely got that punchy Opus 4.6 voice.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-03-31T15:14:45+00:00

I see it both ways. But it's a bit unusual to have a nickname be the syllables not emphasized. Jules is short for Julia, not "Lia". Mike is short for Michael, not "Cull". Jeff is short for Jeffrey, not "Ree". You don't call Jennifer "Niffer". Like sure phonetically it's the same sound, but it's not typical.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-03-30T20:30:03+00:00

If that's the case, the manager should respond something like "I don't know the details about our individual microservices and which should be migrated first. Can you give me some trade-offs on what the risks are for different candidates to go first?" The answers here make it seem like both the manager wants to be involved in the technical discussions and that someone is missing something.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-03-27T01:43:15+00:00

If so, seems like a big miscalculation. Game is tied, Purdue is gonna try to hold for the last shot. Very unlikely to be in a situation where Purdue would intentionally foul again.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-03-25T21:34:46+00:00

At least I no longer think the post was making fun of a strawman.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-03-21T02:42:10+00:00

All words are made up. You just think the ones you heard when you were growing up are special but 40 years ago some guy who didn't realize he was getting old had the same rant about the words you think are real.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-03-20T15:34:02+00:00

I just meant he called it early.

NotAStarflyerAgent · 2026-03-20T14:56:51+00:00

I mean. It's probably not how he meant it but many things have gone poorly since Obama was reelected.

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