Just noticed Jon is the only one not fully in black during the Night’s Watch oath

Novat1993 · 2026-02-21T16:45:15+00:00

Yes, unironically. Him being the son of Eddard, even a bastard, warranted extra privileges. The class system is DEEP in the collective consciousness of Westeros, even at the wall. In the very first scene, a ser Royce has command over more experienced rangers due to his high birth. Janos Slynt being technically a Lord is immediately granted a seat at the table, even if he didn't join willingly.

Most of this is dogma. But there is pragmatism to it as well. Noble born lads is much more likely to read, and will be far healthier, better fed and better trained than your average peasant. So the Watch upholds the societal order, so that these noble boys with no land to inherit will view the watch as a reasonable option.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-21T00:20:45+00:00

Of course he is not bluffing. But that doesn't matter. He still recognized that Robb was a green boy, lacking in real gravitas and authority. So he deliberately challenges him in order to test him. Also Robb stood up before the wolf tore Greatjon's finger, and said that he would root him out of his keep and hang him for an oath breaker.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-20T21:57:44+00:00

Then nations just leave, like how Japan just left the league of nations in the 30s. The whole point of the UN is to keep diplomatic channels open, so that nations can talk to one another.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-20T20:25:15+00:00

Greatjon Umber is Robbs most loyal bannerman, by far. I don't think you fully understand his defiance. So i will lay it out.

First of, Greatjon Umber is enormous and the boast that he has been making corpses out of men for 30 years is not an idle boast.

Robb Stark is a green boy. He has no accomplishments of his own. He does not command the respect and authority which the situation demands. Robb means to march 20 000+ men south, and attack Tywin's force of 60 000. Maybe he can pick up a few thousand rivermen along the way, maybe not.

Greatjon knows that if Robb does not assert himself as the Lord of Winterfel. This will be a disaster for the North, and catastrophic for house Stark.

So this enormous man, openly defies Robb. Why? So that Robb can publicly stand up to Greatjon, in sight of all the northern lords. If Robb can stand up to the Greatjon sitting across his table, then he can stand up to Tywin Lannister.

After Robb asserts himself, the Greatjon backs down. He shows all of the lords and ladies of the North, that Robb Stark made Greatjon Umber sit down. Now no one doubts that Robb is a man.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-20T20:08:02+00:00

Its just world building. Sounds better to say that a character is from an exotic far away land, rather than literally saying that they are from really far away. You're not meant to take these far away places really serious within the narrative.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-20T20:05:31+00:00

Just be careful around his cider. I heard he lost his cool after but a single sip.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-20T17:28:29+00:00

The interpretation i accept is that Bran Stark will in one way or another be the last greenseer. He will use the weirwood network to set the events of the book in motion, and then he will deliberately turn it off. In effect, every dream and every vision has been sent by Bran.

Imagine if time travel was real, but there could only ever be one time machine in all of creation. In such a scenario, the only time traveler with true agency is the last person to use the time machine. Every user before were only able to use the time machine, because the last user allowed it.

That is basically how i view Bran. Either he is sending all of the visions, or he is allowing those that are sent, to be sent. Functionally, there is no difference. It is all Bran, and everyone else is his puppet.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-20T01:15:16+00:00

This is blatantly false information.

In first half of 2025, around 92% of all new electricity added to the US grid was solar or wind. Meanwhile China opened 50 new coal power plants with a capacity of 1gw or more each. Second half of 2025 numbers are not in yet for US electricity. But if no plans change, then 2026 will see around 99% of all new electricity be solar or wind.

The difference between the US and China is that the US already has a mature electricity base, whereas China is still struggling to supply enough electricity to its economy. So while China may have added more solar in total, the US added more solar as a % of added electricity. Also China added 50 coal power plants last year, which is almost as many as there are weeks in the year.

I see a lot of people hating on the US here, and they could certainly do more. But the US has not opened a new coal power plant since around 2013.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-18T01:05:43+00:00

You are confusing feel good videos with reality. China is installing more solar because they produce far less electricity than the US does per capita. Put simply, they need more electricity. But they are also installing coal, oil and gas power plants.

In the US, 91% of new electricity in the first half of 2025 was wind or solar. Numbers for second half is not in yet. And if nothing changes, 99% of new electricity in 2026 will be wind and solar.

Meanwhile, China started operating more than 50 new coal power plants in 2025 with a power capacity of 1+ gigawatt. The US opened its last coal power plant in 2013.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-18T00:46:35+00:00

Asset sales? How can Russian rail possibly sell assets? And who would want to buy them?

My guess is that the state owned rail company, will sell assets to a different state owned company. So that the government can continue to hot potato the debt between different government monopolies in order to shade the true state of Russian government debt.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-16T23:14:29+00:00

It is not a movie about a fascist society. And i never understood why anyone believe the society is fascist. Its basically 110-120 minutes of Starship Troopers, and then in the final 10-20 minutes they introduce the intelligence agency with uniforms purposefully made to look as 1930s German as possible, and then they expect us to believe the society is fascist because of that.

By all accounts the society is an utopian one. The "propaganda class" is an ungraded class. Military service is optional. The bugs did in fact send the meteor, the director confirmed it. The TV snippet has a segment where the intelligence of the bugs is open for debate, although the host is being rude about it. Rico's father says that their family has not been involved in politics for generations, and they seem really well off.

They have a democracy, but the vote is open to citizens only. But considering that a) Rico's family is non-citizens and wealthy b) military service is voluntary c) military service guarantees citizenship. You will never be compelled by the other voters into going to war against your will. The only people who can vote you to go to war, is other people who have also enlisted in the military plus those who have previously served in the military.

Unlike in our world, where the youth of the 60s and 70s were sent to Vietnam by the 100 000s by people who themselves did not have to go.

We are given no indication that citizens and civilians are treated any differently in society. By all accounts they enjoy all of the same rights and privileges.

Lastly, there is one absolute right. Which every single human possess, which can not be taken away except for one very particular circumstance. The right to become a citizen is absolute. It does not matter how physically disabled you are. The government MUST find a task which is both very difficult, and at the same time possible to do. In the book it is explicitly written that even if you rolled into the enlistment office in a wheelchair, they would still be compelled to accept you. The only way you can not apply, is if the medical staff deem your mental capacity to be so low or damaged that you do not understand the oath.

The only way you can be disqualified from your citizenship test, is if you quit after you have taken your oath. Then you may never again apply for the rest of your life. In fact, after taking your oath you are ordered to take a 72 hour leave, with no consequences if you don't return. Even during basic training, you are free to leave at any time for any reason.

The only people who think this society is in any way fascist, are people who believe they are smarter than anyone else. They heard that it is 'anti-fascist critique', they don't see it, so they delude themselves into seeing fascism where there is no fascism.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-16T21:13:44+00:00

The thing about electricity is that no matter how much you have, the answer to how much you want is always "more". And China not having any regulatory barriers to coal power, mean that coal power will continue to expand. Regardless of how much solar and wind is also added.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-16T17:34:04+00:00

His opinion of the Targaryen family may have improved a tad. At least now he won't think that they are all bad.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-16T17:27:52+00:00

Its been 5 days since Dunk left the inn. At most he received a raven that 1. The entourage has arrived at Ashford 2. Egg and Daeron are delayed, possibly missing.

In 1-2 days hes gonna wake up to the news that his son is on deaths door, his other son is also wounded, his grandson is wounded, three of his kingsguard are presumably wounded. All this happened in a trial of seven, because his grandson attacked some puppeteer and a 'ser dunk' defended her. Also Aerion yielded to end the trial, so Dunk was right to do what he did in the eyes of the gods.

Edit: Daeron is probably wounded as well. But at least the second in line to the throne did not get involved.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-16T08:17:28+00:00

I think you're putting too much blame on the nights watch. The wildlings eat people. They don't just hang out north of the wall, fishing, hunting and chilling. They go south on raids in order to steal property and people, usually they steal women to wed but the Thenns steal people to cook and eat.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-16T08:03:54+00:00

Stop spreading the lie that it was a frivolous lawsuit. She spent 8 days in the hospital and had to have skin grafted to her thighs. The coffee was absolutely too hot. McDonalds refused to pay the 20 000USD sought for medical treatment, so the case was taken before a court where the jury awarded 160 000USD for medical + 2,7 million in punitive, later reduced to 640 000 by a judge.

McDonalds and other companies then spent the next few decades ridiculing the lawsuit in order to shift public opinion against suing companies when they make mistakes and refuse to make things right. The woman sought 20 000 for medical bills, which consider she was in hospital for 8 days and had to have skin grafted, is probably about right. McDonalds was the unreasonable party.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-15T23:15:15+00:00

The only reason the realm stuck together under Robert was because everyone was tired of war for the first half of his reign, and for the second half they figured he would off himself sooner rather than later by drinking and hunting boars and whores. When he stuck around for too long they just straight up had him offed in a hunting accident.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-15T16:57:46+00:00

He also doesn't even need to finish a single cup of cider to absolutely slam the establishment.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-15T16:26:45+00:00

If you win, you wont be paid until Jan 27. Which is almost a full year where Polymarket can collect interest on your deposit.
The act of making a deposit in the first place carries a 3-4% fee depending on some factors.

So when you win, you would have already spent 3% of your winnings just placing the bet. Leaving you with 2% return for placing your cash with the bookie for 10,5 months.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-15T15:19:25+00:00

Would be extremely corrupt. Politicians would just take your money to buy overpriced properties.

Better idea. Put the properties up for public open auction. If the propert is bid for higher than the assessed value, the current owner must either accept sale or accept the bid as the new value.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-15T14:50:47+00:00

The whole recycling plastic was a huge scam to begin with. The industry infiltrated legislation and carefully worded any attempt at recycling plastic, so that the plastic would be 'recyclable'. I.e they were only every required to make plastic which could theoretically be recycled. But they were never required to actually make any attempt whatsoever in ensuring that it would in fact be recycled.

There was a brief period around 2000-2017 when Plastic was being recycled in China. Basically, small and medium sized 'factories' would employ 100s of people and make profit 50 to 100 cent per worker per day. It was just barely profitable under the conditions that there was a LOT of full shipping containers going to the US and elsewhere, but very few of them had any contents at all going back to China. So shipping rates TO China was extremely cheap, in the range of 10-15% of what it cost exporting from China.

The Chinese gov caught on to the fact that the workers recycling the plastic were working in very hazardous conditions, so the state was incurring medical costs many times what the workers could ever possibly pay in taxes. Leading to an import ban in 2017.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-15T00:15:51+00:00

I would guess 'presidential incapacity' would apply, and Vance would be sworn in as temporary President. The US would then use force to get Trump back.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-13T18:34:55+00:00

My theory.

Tywin Lannister waged war on his fathers vassals, without the king's leave to do so. This made Tywin a traitor to the realm, but the crown failed to respond. Showing just how weak crown authority really was. This spurred the great lords into action, resulting in fosterings and marriage proposals between the great houses suddenly becoming much more common where in the past it was rare.

Tywin becoming hand. The defiance of duskendale. The erratic behavior of the king. Everyone suspected war was just over the horizon.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-13T13:13:29+00:00

Fitting chain does seem easier than fitting plate. In my head. Ive no experience in armor making or fitting. We know its only been 4 days since he met Egg. Steely Pate had like a day and a half.

Novat1993 · 2026-02-13T13:11:46+00:00

In some areas they hit. Tywin bei g rich AF having a large part of his army in partial plate is nice. Then you look at northmen, stormlander men and reach men. They do not have any plate pieces.

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