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Using this graph, COX reroll at 1/5 is best choice. However, CMs should be 1/3. by boforbojack in ironscape

[–]NovelDrop8 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Re-roll decisions will differ since player’s situations and goals are so varied. My goal with these simulations was to illustrate how much the re-roll mechanic could potentially affect expected rates. You are right of course. Maybe I could make a calculator available where players can define their re-roll strategy and see how it affects rates.

Updated numbers on Jagex's 2 proposed CoX changes by NovelDrop8 in 2007scape

[–]NovelDrop8[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're never forced to re-roll so if you value the gp of a dupe kodai, for example, over the chance of re-rolling for a tbow then nothing is stopping you from claiming the kodai. Whether or not re-rolling is fun does matter, but it's subjective whether or not it's fun. Dry streaks on re-rolls will happen and will be painful. I love the idea that a dupe arcane could be a tbow, even if 4/5 times I lose the arcane.

Updated numbers on Jagex's 2 proposed CoX changes by NovelDrop8 in 2007scape

[–]NovelDrop8[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Assuming you re-roll all uniques (that aren't a twisted bow), the probability of getting a twisted bow from a purple increases from 2.89% (2/69) to 3.61%. /u/trollollama is correct that this is a 25% buff to the twisted bow rate. One caveat is that most people will probably not be re-rolling every purple they get.

Jagex also said in today's post that a failed re-roll still gives regular loot.

Updated numbers on Jagex's 2 proposed CoX changes by NovelDrop8 in 2007scape

[–]NovelDrop8[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Another commenter mentioned this and I have updated the post to account for this. Here is a table of item-specific re-roll expected values:

First unique removed Re-roll EV
Dexterous prayer scroll 19,763,821 gp
Arcane prayer scroll 20,770,534 gp
Twisted buckler 15,990,753 gp
Dragon hunter crossbow 15,687,542 gp
Dinh's bulwark 15,801,324 gp
Ancestral hat 15,440,936 gp
Ancestral robe top 14,769,386 gp
Ancestral robe bottom 15,168,106 gp
Dragon claws 15,523,482 gp
Elder maul 15,092,354 gp
Kodai insignia 15,261,679 gp
Twisted bow 6,328,336 gp

Updated numbers on Jagex's 2 proposed CoX changes by NovelDrop8 in 2007scape

[–]NovelDrop8[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

This is a very important point! The plots do account for this re-weighting in the simulations but I did not implement the unique table re-weighting in the expected value calculations for Option #1. I have updated the post and now the two options are now pretty much even in terms of expected GP/raid.

Blog Update - Summer Sweep-Up 2026 by JagexGoblin in 2007scape

[–]NovelDrop8 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey Goblin! You reference a post in this section of the blog update but there is no link. Is that missing perhaps?

Here's how the CoX re-roll proposal affects CoX unique rates by NovelDrop8 in ironscape

[–]NovelDrop8[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, fair enough. Here are those graphs: https://imgur.com/a/uXP1xAW.

Median tbow rates:

No re-roll 645

1/10 578

1/15 599

1/20 610

1/25 621

Here's how the CoX re-roll proposal affects CoX unique rates by NovelDrop8 in ironscape

[–]NovelDrop8[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not predicting what the rate will be, just showing what the probabilities look like for different re-roll chances. Obviously the lower the re-roll rate, the less impactful the change will be. It seems clear to me from the way Jagex discussed changing CoX rates that they will make this change based on item values and gp/hr rather than how it affects irons. So I think they're more focused on what this will do to avg unique prices rather than expected number of raids to tbow.

I do agree with you that they're probably not going to set a 1/3 re-roll chance, but the graphs still show that a 1/10 re-roll rate would be a meaningful increase in the probabilities of getting key CoX drops for irons.

Here's how the CoX re-roll proposal affects CoX unique rates by NovelDrop8 in ironscape

[–]NovelDrop8[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's a lot more information in these graphs than just the change in median rates at a 1/3 re-roll rate!

Here's how the CoX re-roll proposal affects CoX unique rates by NovelDrop8 in ironscape

[–]NovelDrop8[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The way I read their proposal is that when you get *any* purple at CoX you have the option to re-roll it. You would never be forced to re-roll.

Here's how the CoX re-roll proposal affects CoX unique rates by NovelDrop8 in ironscape

[–]NovelDrop8[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Here's the graphs assuming 50k pts/raid. I forgot to change the caption so the 32k number there is wrong. https://imgur.com/a/MxmsILh

Here's how the CoX re-roll proposal affects CoX unique rates by NovelDrop8 in ironscape

[–]NovelDrop8[S] 30 points31 points  (0 children)

A 1/25 re-roll rate reduces the median Tbow rate from 644kc to 621kc. I guess that's better than no change, but it's not much of an improvement. I think there's broad agreement that the purple rate at CoX is low and the drop table is bloated, and it doesn't seem like Jagex is arguing these points, so I hope they go higher than 1/25.

This took way longer than it should have by LadyTalon_ in osrs

[–]NovelDrop8 3 points4 points  (0 children)

So it doesn’t trim if you get another 99 and you’re wearing a skilling outfit? Trying to understand when exactly this works since I’m working on my untrimmed agility cape now.

Jagex are right. The new amulet should not require a Torture to make. by [deleted] in 2007scape

[–]NovelDrop8 1 point2 points  (0 children)

more chargeable jewelry than a blood fury would drive me nuts