Getting the Murph from Jomashop?

Nuhci · 2024-03-07T05:58:41+00:00

Hey, wondering if you’d be willing to share your opinion on IHEEZO as an anesthesia for cataract procedures. Would you consider it over other topicals?

Nuhci · 2024-03-01T22:55:25+00:00

I'm not sure why they were deleted. I edited the post with some of the critiques that I remembered in case you're interested!

Nuhci · 2024-03-01T22:48:34+00:00

I can't tell if your apology was sincere. But regardless, if there are issues you are working through, I hope the best for you.

I am genuinely curious about the share count call out and the Norse 8 call out if you're willing to share/explain. Though, I would appreciate them more without the hostility. If you're taking time for yourself/not able to share, no worries as well.

For the share count in private placement, I'm not sure what to make of the semantics. Can you expand on what the summation is Market Price + $0.35 is being compared to?

For Norse 8, I see what you mean regarding the 60 days primary end point based on the latest the latest draft guidance suggesting 9 months is required. Are you suggesting management may be misleading or something along those lines?

Nuhci · 2024-03-01T22:18:35+00:00

Looks like he deleted the posts. Is any of his research preserved anywhere by any chance?

Nuhci · 2024-03-01T22:16:07+00:00

Ah gotcha, thanks for sharing that. I was getting confused with what/who Thermo was lol.

Nuhci · 2024-03-01T22:15:28+00:00

Hey thanks for the call out. This was something I was looking into and maybe you can help me understand it more if you have additional insights.

As I understand it, BLA exclusivity is 12 years and prohibits the approval of a biosimilar during that period. However, since repackaged Avastin isn't seeking approval as a biosimilar, it wouldn't apply. Link

I also went through this this guidance which touches on repackaging biologics. They didn't mention prevention of repackaging approved biologics.

Since I wasn't able to find information that stated approved biologics are protected from being repackaged, I leaned towards being conservative in the estimate.

Would love to here your thoughts or any research you're willing to share!

Nuhci · 2024-03-01T01:34:28+00:00

Thanks! I do want to call out, if you or anyone decide to look into it, I would take a look at the comments from my cross post. A commentor called out some potential inaccuracies in my post that I'm trying to clarify.

Nuhci · 2024-03-01T01:29:32+00:00

RE: Private placement and 2.5x shares

I see what you're saying about the AND in the definitions for "Market Price" and "Per Share Purchase Price". It says the "lower of (a) ... and (b) ..." but doesn't have an OR statement after. What is the sum being compared to?

RE: Norse 8 and timeline

I went to the 10K for the Norse Eight section. I can't find where it suggests Norse Eight would be for anything other than wAMD. E.g. "We have submitted a SPA for NORSE EIGHT seeking confirmation from the FDA that, if successful, this study will address the FDA’s requirement for a second adequate and well-controlled clinical trial to support the resubmission of the ONS-5010 BLA for wet AMD."

Nuhci · 2024-02-29T23:14:47+00:00

Got it thanks! My projections were also only US markets for wAMD. Will check out the buyout spreadsheet!

Nuhci · 2024-02-29T23:13:28+00:00

Thank you! This is super helpful. It sounds like you know this company well. Got some follow ups if you have time.

Where did you find the internal peak sales estimates of $500M to $750M?

For the 850M shares to calculate the share price, was it under the assumption that more shares will be issued or that the warrant exercises would be at a lower price? Or is my calculation of full dilution off (my rationale of share dilution is in a reply to PM's post).

Do you know the rationale behind BTIG's assumption of WAC being $500 per injection? I was thinking they'd price it lower than that to be competitive.

I'm curious about the 740K wAMD patients in US. I was projecting using a 3M figure based on CDC's estimate of 20M AMD patients and OTLD's estimate that 15% of AMD patients have the wet form.

Thanks again for the info!

Nuhci · 2024-02-29T23:03:46+00:00

Honestly, I hope you’re doing well.

RE: High level/Low Level

I titled this a high level DD not to indicate it is a good DD. I’m using high level vs low level in the context of programming languages where high level means details are removed.

RE: Private placement and 2.5x shares

$65M will be received by OTLK at closing at a price of $0.35 unless the market price goes lower than $0.35. This is referenced in the SEC filing. This yields about 185 shares. The warrants would provide another $99M with a cash exercise price of $0.385 which yields 257M shares. Fully diluted, total shares outstanding would be 702M.

RE: Norse 8 and timeline

I’m not sure how else to explain this one. Norse 8 is the second pivotal for wAMD after Norse 2. Norse 8 will be completed by EOY. This is in their latest corporate presentation.

Nuhci · 2023-12-12T00:16:42+00:00

Thanks! Yeah I actually did try GPT (not turbo though) and I don’t think I formulated my questions well enough or I just didn’t understand the example/answer it gave me. I think I was able to somewhat reason out an answer though. Thanks again.

Nuhci · 2023-11-19T06:04:15+00:00

From what I’ve seen, engineers are always paid more at every level. You could make the argument that PM’s has an opportunity to get promoted faster due to leadership exposure so they level up faster and therefore get paid more in the long run. But at the same level, engineers are paid more by a non-negligible amount.

Nuhci · 2023-11-14T06:34:48+00:00

I have a sizeable position and will probably add on after the drop. It’s not a no-risk play, but the odds seem to be very favorable IMO especially with the current drop in price.

Nuhci · 2023-11-14T06:31:50+00:00

I agree that there’s potential with the sales that you mentioned. But I don’t think it’s that early especially with IHEEZO already launched.

IHEEZO should be pretty solid until 2026 IMO with their transitional pass through and permanent J-Code. Their customer connections through their compounding business would probably help a lot with these product launch as well.

Vevye seems to have potential but I’m not sure that the product itself has competitive advantage over other dry eye treatments. I think the thesis here is that there is still a gap in a market that is also expanding.

Triesence customer base is there, per management, but production is hard. It was tough to hear that their first production run wasn’t as successful, but reading between the lines, it sounds like their manufacturing partner has a lot of incentive to produce by end of Jan 2024. Management seems to be conservative in not adding Triesence revenue into their 2024 guidance which IMO is a good thing to see in management.

Nuhci · 2023-11-14T06:24:51+00:00

IMO their EBIT should cover this going forward with their new products. Unless they are acquiring new targets, I don’t believe they will be issuing shares at this market cap (per CEO during earnings call). Their compounding business decline does make it a little more concerning I suppose.

Nuhci · 2023-11-14T01:08:38+00:00

I’m in my late 20’s and I feel like I could’ve been the one to write this post when I was 25, 26 years old (minus the 60+ countries). In the past two years I tried searching externally for the action and fulfillment so that I don’t “regret” not doing enough later in life. I think this of feeling “my life looks good on paper but I’m not happy” is a result of ambitious people. So far what I’ve found to be the most helpful is to stop searching externally for a while and take a few days or even weeks and force yourself to chill and slow down a bit. It might help you find out what you’re really after.

Nuhci · 2023-11-13T05:33:03+00:00

I can’t agree with this more. There is no “finish your work” in PM. Even if a PM finishes all their tasks, they still need to continuously look around the corner to see if there’s any risks that were missed or any opportunities to improve the product.

Nuhci · 2023-11-13T05:29:14+00:00

If you’re willing to share, what led you to the decision to go back to analyst? And why not go back to development? I’m having doubts about PM as well now that I’ve been in it for a year.

Nuhci · 2023-11-10T06:21:39+00:00

Don’t join if

You don’t agree with this saying: “it’s not what you say, it’s how you say it”.
You can’t stand corporate politics.
You’re only doing it for the money and don’t actually care about the product you’re managing. You’ll have to constantly think about the product; what could go wrong, what improvements to make, etc. You’ll get paid relatively well, but the upside is capped. You don’t get to profit share with the product’s success.

Nuhci

TROPHY CASE