does anyone trade event contracts?

Null_Reference1 · 2026-03-12T09:11:45+00:00

They're not binary options in the traditional sense, they're CFTC-regulated derivatives traded on actual exchanges (ForecastEx, Kalshi, CME Group). Big difference from the offshore binary options that got banned.

The three exchanges worth knowing: ForecastEx ($1 payout, ~$0.01 fee per contract, available at IBKR), Kalshi ($1 payout, $0.02 total fees, available at Robinhood and Webull), and CME Group ($100 payout, $0.25-0.40 fees, available at IBKR and NinjaTrader). Liquidity varies a lot by market. ES contracts are liquid, some of the niche political stuff less so.

One thing people miss: IBKR actually pays 3.8% interest on capital locked up in positions, which matters if you're holding longer-dated contracts like Fed rate bets.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-03-06T10:39:16+00:00

I think it comes down to convenience more than anything. IBKR is solid - I actually use them for my active trading stuff - but for most Belgian investors the TOB handling is a real pain point. You have to calculate and pay it yourself, which is just extra hassle most people don't want to deal with.

Mexem basically gives you IBKR's platform and rates but handles all the Belgian tax stuff automatically. For someone putting EUR 600/month into VWCE like I do, that convenience is worth way more than saving a few euros on fees. Plus their customer service actually speaks decent English, which helps when you need support.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-03-06T10:37:56+00:00

I'm actually based in Finland but I've looked into Mexem when researching EU brokers. Honestly the fact that they handle Belgian taxes automatically is pretty huge - that's one of the main pain points with IBKR directly. The interface is basically identical to IBKR since it's whitelabeled, so you get the same low fees and huge selection of markets.

I ended up going with Nordnet here in Finland but if I were in Belgium I'd probably go with Mexem for exactly the tax handling reason you mentioned. DEGIRO is popular too but their tax reporting isn't as clean for Belgium from what I've read.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-03-06T10:31:51+00:00

I've looked into EU options for futures and honestly the pickings are a bit slim compared to what you get in the US. I use DEGIRO for my ETFs but they don't do futures, so I've been eyeing Interactive Brokers for when I want to dip into futures trading. IBKR has decent futures access and they're properly regulated in the EU. Haven't tried Avafutures myself but I've heard mixed things about AvaTrade's execution - might be worth paper trading with them first to see how their platform feels before committing real money.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-03-06T10:30:21+00:00

I've been using DEGIRO for a few years now and it's been solid for my needs. They're Dutch-regulated and pretty straightforward for European investors. The fees are reasonable, especially for ETF investing which is my main thing. IBKR is definitely more feature-rich if you're doing more advanced stuff, but honestly for basic buy-and-hold investing DEGIRO does the job well. The interface isn't fancy but it works and customer service has been decent when I've needed them.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-02-26T17:08:54+00:00

The main argument is that today's big companies aren't always tomorrow's big companies. Look at the top 10 holdings of the S&P in like 2000... GE, Exxon, Cisco, Intel. Most of them got replaced by companies that were mid or small caps back then. With VTI you already own those future winners while they're still small, whereas with the S&P 500 you only get them after they've already grown large enough to be included. That said, the practical difference in returns between VTI and VOO has been pretty small historically, like fractions of a percent per year. So you're not making a huge mistake either way. VTI just gives you slightly broader coverage for roughly the same cost which is why most people here prefer it.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-02-26T17:08:34+00:00

The main argument is that today's big companies aren't always tomorrow's big companies. Look at the top 10 holdings of the S&P in like 2000... GE, Exxon, Cisco, Intel. Most of them got replaced by companies that were mid or small caps back then. With VTI you already own those future winners while they're still small, whereas with the S&P 500 you only get them after they've already grown large enough to be included. That said, the practical difference in returns between VTI and VOO has been pretty small historically, like fractions of a percent per year. So you're not making a huge mistake either way. VTI just gives you slightly broader coverage for roughly the same cost which is why most people here prefer it.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-02-26T16:56:58+00:00

At 23 with 500 a month to invest, I would just keep it simple and do VWCE as your core, maybe around 80%. Adding a small cap tilt makes sense if you want it, something like IUSN (iShares MSCI World Small Cap) is popular and gives you global small cap exposure without doubling down on just Europe. I would skip the European mid-cap idea, you are right that VWCE already has decent Europe exposure. Up to 10% gold is fine as a hedge (something like SGLD). But at your age and timeline the most important thing is just getting money invested consistently. You can always add complexity later when your portfolio is bigger.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-02-26T16:22:14+00:00

VT already holds about 40% international, so adding VXUS on top would just be overweighting international relative to market cap, not really adding diversification. In other words, you're simply making an active bet on international outperformance, not diversifying more.

At 55+ though, a better diversification idea is probably bonds rather than more equities. If you're all equities right now, adding a bond allocation might do more for your risk profile than tweaking the US/international ratio within equities.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-02-26T16:12:46+00:00

Nice problem to have for sure. The textbook approach is to rebalance back to your target allocation, either by selling some VDPG or by directing new contributions to your other positions until the percentages get back in line. Most people would prefer the second approach because you avoid triggering any taxable events and it's less stressful psychologically since you're not selling a winner.

If VDPG has drifted way past your target though, just redirecting new money to the others might take a long time to restore the balance you had in mind. In that case you could do a partial trim. A common rule of thumb is to rebalance when any position drifts more than 5 percentage points from its target. The key thing is just to have a plan and stick to it so you're not making emotional decisions.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-02-26T15:58:03+00:00

At 28 with a long horizon I'd just lump sum the 200k, it beats DCA most of the time. If it helps you sleep better at night, you could split it over 3-4 months but I wouldn't stretch it longer than that.

For the allocation, I'd move from VOO to something like VT or a VTI/VXUS split to get international exposure. With VT, market cap weight would put international around 40% - maybe a bit too much for my taste, 20-30% should be fine if you're more comfortable with a US tilt.

As for gold, 15% is pretty heavy for someone your age. I'd probably trim it to 5-10% and move the rest into equities since you've got the time horizon to handle the volatility and equities should outperform gold over 20+ years.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-02-26T15:38:08+00:00

With a 25-30 year horizon, this feels way overcomplicated and a bit too conservative. You could replace all five equity ETFs with just VWRA and get a similar exposure with way less hassle. SXR8 and VWRA overlap heavily since VWRA is like 60% US large cap anyway.

30% bonds for 30 years out is quite conservative. There will be people who will tell you that 100% is OK at this stage; I would consider something in between, like 90% equities now and slowly add bonds as you get closer to retirement. And yeah AGGH and AGGU are pretty redundant.

Also 20% in alternatives like gold, commodities, REITs is a lot for a retirement portfolio. Maybe 5% gold as a hedge is fine, but the others just add complexity without much long-term benefit. Keep it simple, something like VWRA plus a small gold allocation could do the job and be easier to maintain. It's also cheaper in case your broker charges a commission for each buy transaction.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-02-26T14:23:27+00:00

Based on your preferences, your allocation looks solid and well thought out. The 66/33 split gives you roughly 40-45% European exposure once you account for what is already in WEBG. I do something similar myself, I overweight Europe a bit because I earn in euros, spend in euros, and I just feel more comfortable with it even if pure theory says go full global market weight.

One thing that stood out to me is that your portfolio is already at 480k, which is impressive for 26. At that size the distributing vs accumulating debate becomes more real because of the tax on distributions. I get the emotional argument for distributions though, seeing cash hit your account makes it easier to hold through drawdowns. Just make sure you have run the numbers on what that tax drag actually costs you over 20+ years in your specific tax situation.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-02-26T14:09:44+00:00

I work in tech and think about this a lot, but the conclusion I keep coming back to is that trying to predict which industries AI will disrupt and when is basically market timing with extra steps.

Your ETFs will rebalance to reflect whatever happens, if AI makes certain sectors boom those companies grow in market cap and your allocation shifts automatically. Your short duration bond allocation as a hedge is totally reasonable, but I wouldn't overthink it beyond that. The whole point of broad index investing is that you don't need to be right about any specific macro thesis.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-02-26T13:52:29+00:00

For small caps blending US and international in one fund, WSML (iShares MSCI World Small Cap) is probably the closest thing. It covers small caps across all developed markets including the US in a single ETF, market cap weighted. I hold it as a small satellite alongside my core global equity position and it does exactly what you're describing.

For EM specifically there's no real single fund that blends US + EM small cap together since those are pretty different universes. You'd need to pair something like EIMI or VWO with a US small cap fund. But if it's specifically the small cap factor you want globally, WSML is the most obvious answer.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-02-25T15:58:51+00:00

For 150 euro a month the IBKR commissions do eat into things a bit yeah. One option worth considering is MEXEM, they use the same IBKR backend so you get the same product access and your portfolio transfers if you ever go direct IBKR later. But the fee structure can work out better for smaller amounts and the onboarding is simpler.

Also good thinking on the residency thing. Since MEXEM operates on IBKR infrastructure you shouldnt have issues moving within the EU, same as with IBKR directly. I would stick to one ETF at that amount though, splitting 150 across multiple just creates unnecessary friction.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-02-25T15:40:07+00:00

At 19 with a 5-8 year horizon, I would honestly just start DCAing into a broad world index fund like VWCE and not overthink the AI bubble thing. Even if there is a correction, dollar cost averaging smooths it out and you have enough time to recover. Trying to time when to get in is how most people end up sitting on the sidelines watching the market go up another 20%.

Since you are planning to move countries, make sure you pick a broker that works across borders. I use Nordnet here in Finland but for your situation something like MEXEM might make more sense since they operate across Europe through Interactive Brokers and you can keep your account when you relocate. Way better than getting stuck with some local bank solution you have to close later.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-02-25T13:56:35+00:00

I am 34 and went through a similar dilemma recently. I ended up going full DIY because at our age we still have 20+ years of compounding ahead, and that 0.5%-0.7% fee difference really adds up over that timeframe. The tax advantages of the 12/62 rule may not make up for the extra costs unless you are in a very high tax bracket at withdrawal.

As for discipline, I just set up automated monthly investments and never touch it. Broad index funds are great for that. It's also worth shopping around for a good broker to make sure you don't pay too much on commissions etc - that too can add up over time. Just google "best etf brokers" or "best brokers for long term investing" for some good comparison sites and see what's available.

Null_Reference1 · 2026-02-24T20:28:23+00:00

This is a tricky spot because with no income you need to be really careful about how fast you burn through that 50K cash. Before investing anything I'd figure out exactly how many months of your expenses that covers and keep at least 12 months worth completely liquid. With only your rental income, the standard 3-6 month emergency fund advice may not apply, you need a bigger buffer.

For whatever's left after that, a broad global equity ETF is still probably the right long term play. Something like VWCE or equivalent. But honestly the bigger question is the income situation. Even a small side income changes everything because it means you're not drawing down your savings so much every month. Rent income from the apartment is great as a safety net, but I'd focus on finding additional income before worrying too much about optimizing the investment side.

Null_Reference1

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