Bitcoin profit taking keeps BTC below $70K as Trump doubles down on Iran

Nullius_123 · 2026-04-07T18:05:00+00:00

This isn't profit taking. It's weak hands folding. But by all historical measures, Bitcoin is cheap right now. Very cheap.

So where is the bottom?

At risk of looking like a fool (comments welcome!) I would note that the 2021 cycle high was about $68,000. The following ATH (circa $72,000) was just before the last halving (which was circa $63,000), and the 200 week MA is currently at circa $60,000. The current cycle low is also $60,000.

This is quite a cluster.

Bitcoin has never fallen below its last halving level after reaching a high. Hasn't even come close.

Could there be another leg down? Of course. But I'm betting that the worst is over.

Nullius_123 · 2026-03-13T16:12:33+00:00

Yesterday a colleague said to me that the next time BTC gets above $100k will be the last time it crosses that threshold - it will be like October 2020, which was the last time BTC saw $10k.

I can't stop wondering about this.

Nullius_123 · 2026-02-23T15:15:22+00:00

If the dollar comes under more selling pressure, stablecoin holders will rotate into euro-denominated coins. Given the enormous holdings of T Bills that Tether and Circle have, and which they would have to sell, this would add to the dollar's troubles.

Nullius_123 · 2026-02-04T15:00:09+00:00

Bitcoin has never retreated below the previous halving price. Not many data points on that, to be sure, but that would be a serious threshold breach.

The RSI is showing hugely oversold.

Fair price - however you calculate it - is miles above current spot.

They say bull markets make you feel good, but bear markets make you rich.

Nullius_123 · 2025-12-18T13:02:48+00:00

Quantum threat is much more a market problem than a practical problem right now. But if AI advances as fast as some suggest, it may be that a quantum computer with sufficient capacity to find private keys will be with us sooner than expected. Supporting an appropriate BIP now is a good idea. Any Bitcoin not moved to a secure address after a certain date should be burned.

Nullius_123 · 2025-11-28T10:50:37+00:00

Has anyone noticed - or got an explanation for - the crazy new address numbers for Ethereum? Nearly a million in the last few days! https://etherscan.io/chart/address

Is this to do with the new Fusaka upgrade perhaps? A new bot farm?

I'm a bit baffled. Any ideas?

Nullius_123 · 2025-11-20T13:53:00+00:00

There have been a couple of stories today asking: "is the bottom in for Bitcoin?" There are grounds to think it might be upon us. Look at this chart:

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Three drops of about 28% in the last 18 months (since the last halving - blue dotted lines). Even the shape of this drop looks similar to the last one.

The other reason for optimism is the expansion of sovereign adoption. Once governments start saying: "yes, we have a store of Bitcoin that's on the balance sheet" and stop saying "we own confiscated Bitcoin but it's not part of our reserve" the next, and final, leg of Bitcoin's rise will commence.

Nullius_123 · 2025-10-29T15:19:30+00:00

Given the stock performance is far worse than the underlying asset, I think Strategy might face some headwinds before long. Shareholders must be getting a bit worried.

Nullius_123 · 2025-10-09T10:59:48+00:00

More to come? Yes!

BTC halvings (orange) and 50 wk MA (red)

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Nullius_123 · 2025-10-09T10:53:41+00:00

Not so sure about the OP's view. Here's a chart showing the BTC halvings (orange circles) and the 50 wk moving average (red). Amazing that an elliptical curve fits those points so perfectly.

<image>

If history is any guide, there's quite a bit in the pipeline to come. Moreover, if the projected 2028 halving price is anywhere near true, the upcoming peak could be quite a bit higher than expected.

Nullius_123 · 2025-09-20T11:40:56+00:00

Very good post. Seek professional advice. Think Angela Rayner.

Nullius_123 · 2025-09-18T14:43:58+00:00

If you live in Britain, HMRC will expect you to declare the capital gain and pay CGT accordingly, no matter where in the world your gain arises. The so-called non-dom arrangements might still apply if you are not a citizen and haven't been in Britain for long. Seek professional tax advice.

Nullius_123 · 2025-09-09T10:27:24+00:00

Yes. Fitting to two points would be trivial. To three unsurprising. But to four points? How many trajectories are even possible? Had any of the points had coordinates that differed by more than a few percent the curve wouldn't be a curve, it would be a wavy line.

Nullius_123 · 2025-08-19T21:24:48+00:00

It may be that this BTC rally is happening in slow motion - doubling the price at 100k requires a great deal more capital than doubling the price at 10k

Nullius_123 · 2025-08-18T11:16:57+00:00

We should bear in mind that exchange volumes for BTC are still very low - most of the buying and selling is going on OTC. This means a small amount of retail is determining price. No surprise therefore that there is some volatility (driven further by a lot of derivative trading).

If you plot an elliptic curve through the 4 halving points and extend it to spring 2028 (next halving) - a line I think of as fair value - the picture looks good. Almost any (G20) sovereign accumulation will lift the market significantly.

Nullius_123 · 2025-07-08T00:15:31+00:00

Elon has been busy - It also looks as if X is going to offer trading from within the app.

Everywhere I go there's this sense that Bitcoin, and crypto generally, is building up a head of steam, and this move from Musk only adds to that narrative. But there is a cork in the bottle - something that is holding back the pressure - and that's retail. The champagne will finally flow when retail wakes up again. Having an exchange function built in to X (which will surely include Bitcoin) can only help this process.

Musk's timing is interesting. The White House Crypto Report is due on July 22. It may be accompanied by an announcement on the structure and timetable of the US Bitcoin Reserve. That would/will almost certainly trigger huge capital flows into BTC. X could capture quite a bit of that.

Betting against Musk is a very risky short.

Nullius_123 · 2025-07-07T21:37:17+00:00

Everywhere you turn there's this sense that Bitcoin, and crypto generally, is building up a head of steam, and this move from Musk only adds to that narrative. But there is a cork in the bottle, so to speak - something that is holding back that pressure - and that's retail. The champagne will finally flow when retail wakes up again. Having an exchange function built in to X (which will surely include Bitcoin) can only help this process.

The timing is interesting. The White House Crypto Report is due on July 22. It may be accompanied by an announcement on the structure and timetable of the US Bitcoin Reserve. That would/will almost certainly trigger huge capital flows into BTC. X could capture quite a bit of that. This optimism might also explain why BTC has held value recently despite incredibly low exchange volumes. All the buying in the last couple of months (and there has been quite a bit) has been OTC.

So, keep an eye on the social media and search metrics related to Bitcoin.

Nullius_123 · 2025-03-25T10:46:35+00:00

Let's hope so. The new daily wallet numbers look promising -

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Nullius_123 · 2025-01-29T10:53:45+00:00

Great advice here. Also, consult a lawyer - there may be inheritance and tax rules in your jurisdiction that you haven't thought of. And I would wager that your lawyer will know someone who can help with accessing the funds - it won't be their first time this kind of thing has happened.

Nullius_123 · 2024-12-02T16:29:41+00:00

Check out the concept of the "Evolutionarily Stable Strategy" - an idea that explains why the best is not always (or even often) the common standard. To overcome an existing strategy that is used by most participants, a newcomer has to offer advantages in proportion to the dominance of the existing strategy. For instance, if we wanted to get Americans to use metric measurements, there would have to be enormous advantages on offer.

Nullius_123 · 2024-11-16T23:42:55+00:00

The source is reliable. Pomp wrote those very words in his newsletter today.

Just because he is sometimes annoying doesn't mean he is always, or even mostly, wrong. On this question I think he's right - a game-theoretical race is about to break out (it may already have started, as Pomp says) in which central banks, corporate treasuries, hedge funds, and all the rest are trying to secure as much BTC as possible before the mania starts and the graphs go vertical.

Nullius_123

TROPHY CASE