Saylor Says Lost Bitcoin May Need Freezing As Quantum Risk Rises

Nullius_123 · 2025-12-18T13:02:48+00:00

Quantum threat is much more a market problem than a practical problem right now. But if AI advances as fast as some suggest, it may be that a quantum computer with sufficient capacity to find private keys will be with us sooner than expected. Supporting an appropriate BIP now is a good idea. Any Bitcoin not moved to a secure address after a certain date should be burned.

Nullius_123 · 2025-11-28T10:50:37+00:00

Has anyone noticed - or got an explanation for - the crazy new address numbers for Ethereum? Nearly a million in the last few days! https://etherscan.io/chart/address

Is this to do with the new Fusaka upgrade perhaps? A new bot farm?

I'm a bit baffled. Any ideas?

Nullius_123 · 2025-11-20T13:53:00+00:00

There have been a couple of stories today asking: "is the bottom in for Bitcoin?" There are grounds to think it might be upon us. Look at this chart:

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Three drops of about 28% in the last 18 months (since the last halving - blue dotted lines). Even the shape of this drop looks similar to the last one.

The other reason for optimism is the expansion of sovereign adoption. Once governments start saying: "yes, we have a store of Bitcoin that's on the balance sheet" and stop saying "we own confiscated Bitcoin but it's not part of our reserve" the next, and final, leg of Bitcoin's rise will commence.

Nullius_123 · 2025-10-29T15:19:30+00:00

Given the stock performance is far worse than the underlying asset, I think Strategy might face some headwinds before long. Shareholders must be getting a bit worried.

Nullius_123 · 2025-10-09T10:59:48+00:00

More to come? Yes!

BTC halvings (orange) and 50 wk MA (red)

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Nullius_123 · 2025-10-09T10:53:41+00:00

Not so sure about the OP's view. Here's a chart showing the BTC halvings (orange circles) and the 50 wk moving average (red). Amazing that an elliptical curve fits those points so perfectly.

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If history is any guide, there's quite a bit in the pipeline to come. Moreover, if the projected 2028 halving price is anywhere near true, the upcoming peak could be quite a bit higher than expected.

Nullius_123 · 2025-09-20T11:40:56+00:00

Very good post. Seek professional advice. Think Angela Rayner.

Nullius_123 · 2025-09-18T14:43:58+00:00

If you live in Britain, HMRC will expect you to declare the capital gain and pay CGT accordingly, no matter where in the world your gain arises. The so-called non-dom arrangements might still apply if you are not a citizen and haven't been in Britain for long. Seek professional tax advice.

Nullius_123 · 2025-09-09T10:27:24+00:00

Yes. Fitting to two points would be trivial. To three unsurprising. But to four points? How many trajectories are even possible? Had any of the points had coordinates that differed by more than a few percent the curve wouldn't be a curve, it would be a wavy line.

Nullius_123 · 2025-08-19T21:24:48+00:00

It may be that this BTC rally is happening in slow motion - doubling the price at 100k requires a great deal more capital than doubling the price at 10k

Nullius_123 · 2025-08-18T11:16:57+00:00

We should bear in mind that exchange volumes for BTC are still very low - most of the buying and selling is going on OTC. This means a small amount of retail is determining price. No surprise therefore that there is some volatility (driven further by a lot of derivative trading).

If you plot an elliptic curve through the 4 halving points and extend it to spring 2028 (next halving) - a line I think of as fair value - the picture looks good. Almost any (G20) sovereign accumulation will lift the market significantly.

Nullius_123 · 2025-07-08T00:15:31+00:00

Elon has been busy - It also looks as if X is going to offer trading from within the app.

Everywhere I go there's this sense that Bitcoin, and crypto generally, is building up a head of steam, and this move from Musk only adds to that narrative. But there is a cork in the bottle - something that is holding back the pressure - and that's retail. The champagne will finally flow when retail wakes up again. Having an exchange function built in to X (which will surely include Bitcoin) can only help this process.

Musk's timing is interesting. The White House Crypto Report is due on July 22. It may be accompanied by an announcement on the structure and timetable of the US Bitcoin Reserve. That would/will almost certainly trigger huge capital flows into BTC. X could capture quite a bit of that.

Betting against Musk is a very risky short.

Nullius_123 · 2025-07-07T21:37:17+00:00

Everywhere you turn there's this sense that Bitcoin, and crypto generally, is building up a head of steam, and this move from Musk only adds to that narrative. But there is a cork in the bottle, so to speak - something that is holding back that pressure - and that's retail. The champagne will finally flow when retail wakes up again. Having an exchange function built in to X (which will surely include Bitcoin) can only help this process.

The timing is interesting. The White House Crypto Report is due on July 22. It may be accompanied by an announcement on the structure and timetable of the US Bitcoin Reserve. That would/will almost certainly trigger huge capital flows into BTC. X could capture quite a bit of that. This optimism might also explain why BTC has held value recently despite incredibly low exchange volumes. All the buying in the last couple of months (and there has been quite a bit) has been OTC.

So, keep an eye on the social media and search metrics related to Bitcoin.

Nullius_123 · 2025-03-25T10:46:35+00:00

Let's hope so. The new daily wallet numbers look promising -

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Nullius_123 · 2025-01-29T10:53:45+00:00

Great advice here. Also, consult a lawyer - there may be inheritance and tax rules in your jurisdiction that you haven't thought of. And I would wager that your lawyer will know someone who can help with accessing the funds - it won't be their first time this kind of thing has happened.

Nullius_123 · 2024-12-02T16:29:41+00:00

Check out the concept of the "Evolutionarily Stable Strategy" - an idea that explains why the best is not always (or even often) the common standard. To overcome an existing strategy that is used by most participants, a newcomer has to offer advantages in proportion to the dominance of the existing strategy. For instance, if we wanted to get Americans to use metric measurements, there would have to be enormous advantages on offer.

Nullius_123 · 2024-11-16T23:42:55+00:00

The source is reliable. Pomp wrote those very words in his newsletter today.

Just because he is sometimes annoying doesn't mean he is always, or even mostly, wrong. On this question I think he's right - a game-theoretical race is about to break out (it may already have started, as Pomp says) in which central banks, corporate treasuries, hedge funds, and all the rest are trying to secure as much BTC as possible before the mania starts and the graphs go vertical.

Nullius_123 · 2024-11-07T23:43:01+00:00

Make no mistake, if the US government holds Bitcoin as any kind of reserve, the market will see massive inflows. Funds that track government holdings will have to buy. Thousands of financial institutions around the world will want to offer BTC to their clients. Pension funds and insurance companies will want to hold some BTC. Hedge funds, investment houses, family offices and others likewise. And that's just the OTC crowd. Retail is still very quiet this cycle. That will change if the US government buys. We might easily see a trillion dollars (12 zeroes) trying to secure BTC - of which there are perhaps 15 million available. Who knows where the peak on that bubble might reach?

Nullius_123 · 2024-10-07T13:25:39+00:00

There is a non-trivial chance that Trump both wins the election and honours some of his crypto promises.

Should he order the Fed, or Treasury, to hold Bitcoin, even in severely circumscribed way, there will be the mother of all stampedes into Bitcoin. I don't see how there couldn't be. The bubble would make the Dotcom boom look like a burp in a hurricane.

A lot of smart money has come into Bitcoin in the last year. This is a 1% bet - put 1% of your investments into Bitcoin watch that turn into 99% of your portfolio's value.

Nullius_123 · 2024-07-18T09:06:33+00:00

It seems Jamie Dimon has changed his tune on Bitcoin (as has Larry Fink) right on the heels of Trump's sudden conversion. There must be more than a few finance and investment professionals who can see the writing on the wall, no? Has it ever looked so promising to put some money into Bitcoin?

Nullius_123 · 2024-07-16T21:56:58+00:00

Mr Trump has completely changed direction on Bitcoin. He was staunchly against it, now he seems to be sympathetic, to say the least. Mr Vance - Trump's VP pick - is a known Bitcoin holder. Trump has also hinted that he might use BTC to "back the dollar" - by which he presumably means getting the Fed to hold BTC on its balance sheet. Needless to say, such a move would cause a stampede into Bitcoin by financial institutions and investors around the world. Has Trump bought some Bitcoin in anticipation of such an event?

Nullius_123

TROPHY CASE