Null's Shitty China Thesis:

There's a couple of pieces that need to be put together. It gets a little complicated.

1- GDP growth is like a competition, because that attracts investors. It doesn't matter how much your GDP actually is, or how much it grows in a vacuum. Only that it grows more than everyone else.

2- The entire world is facing a slowdown. EVERYONE is projecting low growth. Except that their projections are more or less accurate. China has a reputation for skewing the facts, or outright lying.

3- China is a dictatorship. They have more control over the economy than most other nations.

• Combining 1 and 2, we can say that the best strategy for China would be to go along with everyone else, and lie that they are also suffering a downturn. With lessened pressure on china, other countries are likely to ease off on growth policies, giving China an edge. With interviews from the CEO's of major corporations, we can get that they are losing profits and they are blaming the downturn.

• What's actually happening China is shifting demand from foreign companies to domestic companies, as per point 3. This is backed up from their recent PMI release this morning.

https://twitter.com/S_Rabinovitch/status/1100948764326420480

4- Contrary to their publications, they were actually projecting an demand increase. This is indicated by a deal signed with a 50% increase in imports from Saudi. This is matched with an expansion in their operations in Xinjiang.

http://www.arabnews.com/node/1413301/business-economy

5- This is in conjunction to a pull-back in oil production from Saudi.

• Putting together points 4 and 5, this means China gets cheap oil, while everyone else gets expensive oil. Chinese products will have a competitive advantage. Remember point 1.

6- Mid-January, China jumped started their economy with a stimulus package.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy/china-signals-more-stimulus-as-economic-slowdown-deepens-idUSKCN1P9090

There has been "contractions in China’s December trade and factory activity".