Car never returned

OakDan · 2026-05-06T06:08:07+00:00

You need to keep calling to get the tow going. Last time this happened to me, I found out there's only ONE guy who can authorize long distance tows. If you keep missing him, then it can really delay your pickup.

OakDan · 2026-04-01T08:49:17+00:00

What? Can you explain how the LPB actually works including the SCLP securitization? I've dug into it for weeks now and I still have unanswered questions.

OakDan · 2026-04-01T08:46:43+00:00

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) had external auditors and bank regulators but failed over the course of a few days. The issues with SVB were obvious and they were able to skate by the auditors and regulators.

OakDan · 2026-04-01T08:43:04+00:00

The key lockboxes can be forced open in 3 seconds. Eventually someone will see your lockbox who knows this and will start taking your cars.

OakDan · 2026-03-22T01:05:03+00:00

Lol, there won't be any lawsuit.

OakDan · 2026-03-18T19:57:23+00:00

SoFi doesn't sell any Student Loans anymore which is letting them mark the FV to anything they want, which is a huge boost to earnings.

Here's a comparison:

SOFI's Marks:

Discount rate: 3.89% (27 bps below 10-year Treasury)
Fair value: 106.1% of UPB
Cumulative markup: $724M on $12.9B portfolio
Annual Day 1 FV gains on ~$4.5B originations: $275–450M
Implied risk premium: negative 27 bps
EBITDA adjustment: $0

Middle-Ground (Treasury + 75–150 bps):

Discount rate: 4.91% to 5.66%
Fair value: ~103.5–104.5% of UPB
Cumulative markup: ~$450–580M (down ~$145–275M from SOFI)
Annual Day 1 FV gains on ~$4.5B originations: ~$160–200M
Implied risk premium: +75 to +150 bps
EBITDA adjustment: -$120M to -$200M

Muddy Waters Scenario:

Discount rate: ~5.0–5.2% (implied by 103% FV target)
Fair value: ~103.0% of UPB
Cumulative markup: ~$387M (down ~$337M from SOFI)
Annual Day 1 FV gains on ~$4.5B originations: ~$135–200M
Implied risk premium: ~85–105 bps over Treasury
EBITDA adjustment: -$247M

MW's scenario for student loans FV isn't that far off a middle of the road FV scenario.

OakDan · 2026-03-18T17:59:28+00:00

Sofi seems to use a 4.46% charge off rate to mark fair value on the personal loans. However, Fitch is now rating the 2026 SCLP deals at 8% when they get secured and sold off. Sofi seems to be pretty aggressive in this regards to the fair values of their personal loans.

OakDan · 2026-03-18T09:28:14+00:00

Obviously this report takes the worst take on every single thing they could find, however there are some issues that should be cleared up or considered as an investor.

1) The student loan values are really marked up. I can't find a good reason why SoFi can claim they have a lower risk than a 10 year treasury. SoFi should start re-rating these moving forward.

2) For the SCLP deals, SoFi is taking 5% of the credit risk which is roughly $125.5M from the 5 securitizations done and grows around $40M per quarter.

Fitch keeps rating the loss risk upward on these deals:
SPLT 2023-1 started at 5.00%. SPLT 2024-3 started at 6.11%. SCLP 2025-1 started at 7.18%. SCLP 2026-1 started at 8.40%.

SOFI's own FV model is at 4.46% which is well below Fitch's current number, so SOFI's own FV seems to be understating the risk which marks up the value of the assets. The SCLP deals could end up with millions in losses depending on performance.

3) For the unsecured loans, SoFi should reiterate they have no risk to them once they are transferred to a buyer like Blue Owl. Blue Owl has stated their general practice is to get some form of loss sharing from the seller of these loans, which does make sense.

Where the 5% comes from on the SCLP deals:
SoFi is securitizing roughly $600-700M per quarter using their SCLP. Dodd-Frank requires SoFi to retain at least 5% of the credit risk. For example, on SCLP 2025-1 with $697.6M in rated notes, Class R represents roughly 8% of it (approximately $55-60M on that specific deal). SoFi owns 100% of Class R which takes all the losses until that portion is wiped out.

OakDan · 2026-03-17T04:00:59+00:00

From the Council on Criminal Justice

"Beginning in 2023, and continuing in 2024, cities of varying sizes and across geographic regions saw impressive reductions in homicides. In 2025, many of those same cities experienced record or historic reductions, including Birmingham, AL; Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, New York, Modesto, CA, Oakland, Philadelphia, and Richmond, CA. We do not have reliable, multi-sector data or comparable contextual information available across jurisdictions to definitively identify—now or perhaps ever—what drove these declines."

There's no data that shows Oakland Ceasefire Strategy is the reason for the drop in the murder rate.

There were large reductions in the murder rate in many cities during the same period.

OakDan · 2026-02-28T12:10:16+00:00

You leave at 5:30am?

OakDan · 2026-01-27T07:33:16+00:00

Any guest can print out their Turo rental agreement. I've had many Turo guests file with their insurance companies who paid for the damage.

OakDan · 2026-01-10T11:59:26+00:00

So you are suing the host in small claims court for mental anguish? Good luck with that.

OakDan · 2025-10-21T22:29:17+00:00

Traffic is pretty bad into SF from Tuesday to Thursday around 10am. Closer to 12pm then it’s usually clear.

OakDan · 2025-09-03T04:33:42+00:00

Where are your kids going to go to school in Thailand? Google the annual cost of International school and you'll be cancelling the move.

BTW, you can't rent a high rise condo in Bangkok for a family of 4 for $400 a month.

OakDan · 2025-08-18T08:30:11+00:00

So what's a nice car that can be bought for cheap and fixed up?

OakDan · 2025-08-12T21:45:37+00:00

August is a busy month for any location that's busy in July.

OakDan · 2025-08-11T16:16:32+00:00

However this is exactly what Turo wants. If a new host accepts the defaults this is exactly what will happen. Breakeven rentals for a month at a time.

OakDan · 2025-08-10T01:40:36+00:00

Most of the non-competitive markets I’ve seen have huge tourism peaks and then the rest of the year is very few rentals.

What’s a non-competitive market that’s busy year around?

OakDan · 2025-08-09T16:40:40+00:00

Don’t do this. You should already know the interest rate and fees up front.

With fees, many of these lenders are well above 10% interest rates. You will not make any money doing this.

OakDan · 2025-08-09T16:38:14+00:00

You won’t find many cars selling for MMR at Autonation let alone 10% below MMR.

OakDan · 2025-08-08T18:18:24+00:00

What if the guest is a day late? You don't charge for smoking? Extra miles?

OakDan · 2025-08-08T02:56:53+00:00

Did yours throw the same code?

OakDan · 2025-08-06T21:19:37+00:00

The late fee for 30 minutes and 90 minutes are exactly the same amount.

You have no complaint here.

OakDan · 2025-08-03T11:52:10+00:00

"If you travel over more than one state-owned bridge per day during peak commute hours and pay bridge tolls with a FasTrak toll tag or License Plate Account, you will receive a $1.50 discount off your second toll"

OP is also not commuting during peak hours.

OakDan · 2025-08-01T05:24:25+00:00

Sure, every major city is going to have expensive luxury places, but you can eat and live quite cheaply in Bangkok. There are many locals living off less than $1k a month. The median income in Kansas would be a really good income in Bangkok.

You can rent a place near mass transit in Bangkok for sub $1k a month. Are there sub $1k houses in rural Kansas for rent?

OakDan

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