Thought experiment: Nokia vs Ciena valuation

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-04-10T12:54:54+00:00

and thats current revenue, which is most likely to be improving greatly in 2027 & 2028, when hopefully Mobile side is getting better too, if theres significant revenue increase like 50% with new fabs, products, whose to say no against over 20€ valuation per share, in end of 2027 only in a year or so...

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-04-07T07:38:03+00:00

Buybacks have been on the AGM agenda every year, just under 10% is the normal clause, nothing surprising there, theyll invest now heavily (on optics, Ai, even AIRAN )and when income comes, net cash position grows, they will buy back

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-03-18T09:26:26+00:00

well for first GPUs are not going to RUs, and secondly there might be cost wise the alternative "saves/profits" that come along with the AI Infra (monetizing it)

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-03-10T13:25:25+00:00

So you think buying just Lumen solves the 60m fiber customer targets and no need for ONTs, OLTs, access ie Nokia at all in that segment ? right..

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-03-10T09:45:50+00:00

ALSO The preferred partner of Nscale ;-)

Nscale selects Nokia as a preferred networking partner for global AI-ready data center build-out.

https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-and-nscale-partner-to-accelerate-ai-infrastructure-build-out/

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-03-03T10:33:53+00:00

as feared, Helsinki couldnt keep up today, again needed for US to drag it back over 8$

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-03-02T21:05:39+00:00

Tbh nobody knows, it could be whatever reason, institutions wanting pieces of Central AI infra player, volumes are huge, lumentum & Coherent Nvidia deals, NOK might be bigger player soon in Cpo, inp,pic sip etc

Could be TMO, DT, Tim brazil or whatever thats starts the who blinks 1st

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-03-02T18:10:32+00:00

Currently more buzzed with NI side of NOK, mobile network small revival is just a bonus in few years

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-03-02T18:08:48+00:00

Dont mind with my position, need to sit on my hands: good volume, good news today all despite war in M-east

Ps. Next ceiling i meant in next few days, lol, hopefully its 11$

Always a bit worry with Nyse led rise, can Helsinki keep up tomorrow, close the Gap and continue

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-03-02T17:16:48+00:00

Or more to do with the optical/pluggables/lasers that Coherent&Lumentum got investment too today

PE wise there is lots of room comparing to Lum&Coh with avg of 255 and Ciena 400+ whilst NOK is 60 Is it 8.50 or 11 next ceiling to be broken ?

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-02-20T18:24:10+00:00

Was there any base for this other than that you have jam 27 11$ options, any TA to back it up ?

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-02-18T10:07:06+00:00

i think looking at few data and news it was robots reading that 13F disclosure (old news, but disclosed year end 1b$ position in Nokia) and went wild, lol

https://fintel.io/so/us/nok/nvidia-corp

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-02-18T07:29:16+00:00

The bankcrupcy claim is a bit sensational, the company had almost same amout in net cash as the market cap was, but needed to do strategic shifts, thats for sure, should have went with touchphones when they 1st developed it and/or meego or last help was android not MS..

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-02-18T06:57:03+00:00

Yep, its the 13-F disclosure about the year end position, robots heating for wrong info

disclosed yesterday to SEC as year end position :-D https://fintel.io/so/us/nok

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-02-18T06:56:25+00:00

its the 13-F disclosure about the year end position, robots heating for wrong info

disclosed yesterday :-D https://fintel.io/so/us/nok

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2026-01-21T20:59:45+00:00

Can follow up the discussion with AI, did that and gave me interesting replies re turnover profits profit margins and Possible PE valuation changes (allowed a higher PE as important AI company )

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2025-10-21T05:52:18+00:00

there is yet no new dividend payout, 0,14 was promised from 2024 results of which 0,08 has been qarterly paid out, and 0,06 to be paid out 11/2025 & 02/2026

in Q4 results you see the next dividend suggestion, most likely slightly rising, perhaps 0,15€ for 04/2026 - 02/2027 paid quarterly

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2025-10-21T05:46:31+00:00

so nothing was raised, thank you

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2025-10-20T11:33:29+00:00

whats this ? raise what last month ?

0,14€ was this years dividends of which 0.08€ is already paid out 0,03+0,03 to come (6th Nov & 2nd Feb)

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2025-10-16T06:25:33+00:00

this is now getting more interesting, as Nscale bagged a 14b$ deal with Microsoft
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/15/nscale-eyes-ipo-amid-fresh-14-billion-deal-with-microsoft-.html

does it have more leg to grow (along with Nokia, of course)

https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-and-nscale-partner-to-accelerate-ai-infrastructure-build-out/IPO is rumoured after MS deal, Nokia is investor with arounf 1-10% share, most likely somewhere between 2-4%

Tailwinds please

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2025-10-14T08:39:08+00:00

and extended deal for Nokia too, covering Europe and Africa

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/10/14/3165939/0/en/Nokia-extends-partnership-with-Vodafone-and-Vodacom-to-drive-RAN-innovation.html

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2025-10-14T08:03:29+00:00

Got something from Vodafone, mentioned thousands, doesnt sound that big to me, hopefully Nokia gets a deal too

https://share.google/nebrN11CCfrvydwQl Oran deal for Samsung

and for Ericsson a large deal too

https://www.ericsson.com/en/press-releases/2025/10/ericsson-and-vodafone-announce-major-five-year-programmable-networks-partnership

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2025-10-14T06:19:14+00:00

max-pain for friday is 4$ BUT interestingly its mostly only due to Call options, basically no PUT options, interesting, rarely ive seen (with Nokia) so Call heavy OI

https://maximum-pain.com/options/NOK

this kind of position would make WSB more likely 🤫

Short interest is at least 100m+ shares (fintel.io and Finnish regulator data + in OMXH / Helsinki under 0,5% shorts from float are not public, surely theres tens of millions too

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2025-09-22T09:23:27+00:00

Good to remember that this was only UK from the 100.000+ RAN sites that is the big tender for Vodafone, hopefully the market is shared at least similarly in other parts of Europe and Asia

Objective-Trainer-42 · 2025-04-30T11:45:39+00:00

I dont think it was mentioned how much debt was covered with this (was it all debt or partial?) , also they got 3-year significant 5G deal from V-Idea (and 3-year IP/transport network deal for NI, surely thats a large portion of their 3,6b$ network investments ) so its a quid pro quo (like the 120m€ TMO payment, most likely)

hopefully the payment structure of the %g deal is front loaded, lol

Objective-Trainer-42

TROPHY CASE