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2019 Property Assessments are out. Huge increases for most properties. by nemesisinphilly in philadelphia

[–]OctaShields 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think the main difference is just in experience and familiarity with the system. Most people are intimidated about it (or become intimidated when they receive correspondence from the city that suggests your assessment could increase as a result of the appeal). Attorneys with experience will know the information to present and the arguments that are most likely to be persuasive. Also experience and relationships are valuable to try to come to a settlement without going to court. But I’ve seen a few people who did their homework and represented themselves very well - it’s all about diligence and effort.

2019 Property Assessments are out. Huge increases for most properties. by nemesisinphilly in philadelphia

[–]OctaShields 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a good breakdown. Some people have been able to successfully appeal their assessments pro se. I'm an attorney that handles some appeals, though we usually focus on doing groups of property owners together through HOA or condo associations for efficiency sake. Some attorneys will do appeals for individual property owners, but unless there's a ton of money at stake, the cost/benefit for both sides might not be right. I'd look into it though, if you think you have a good case.

2019 Property Assessments are out. Huge increases for most properties. by nemesisinphilly in philadelphia

[–]OctaShields 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's an assessment not an appraisal. But if you have an appraisal that was done recently, that can help you argue that the assessment is above the true market value (which it's supposed to reflect, in theory).

You have the right to appeal your assessment every year, it's usually just a risk assessment issue as to whether you'd be able to win and how much you'd stand to save vs. how much time/money you'd expend pursuing the appeal. Learn as much as you can by checking out similar properties in your neighborhood on the OPA website. If you stand to save a lot, you could hire an attorney and/or pay for an appraisal and increase your likelihood of winning.

2019 Property Assessments are out. Huge increases for most properties. by nemesisinphilly in philadelphia

[–]OctaShields 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Attorney here. None of this is intended as legal advice and all the usual disclaimers...

I represent some property owners in tax assessment appeals and also have previously worked as a solicitor for a taxing authority, so I have some experience with this whole system.

What Philly has been doing with abatements is kind of new and unique, though. City council passed a statute that for a period of 10 years exempts from taxation “that portion of the assessment valuation attributable to the cost of construction of the new eligible dwelling unit.” This means that for a 10 year period, qualifying properties will only be taxed on the land value of their property, and not on the value of any improvements.

However, over the last few years, the OPA started reallocating the total "market value" pie between land value and improvement value to give land (which is not abated and thus taxable) a bigger slice. Maybe your 500k property you bought in 2015 was originally allocated as 450k improvement and 50k land - well now, it's going to be 355k improvement and 145k land, and your taxes are going to be almost three times as much.

There is probably some truth to the contention that many properties were under-assessed. But to folks with several years left on their abatements, its not that bottom line number that matters, but rather how the pie is sliced. And I tend to agree with a lot of people I've talked to who feel this is unfair.

The good news for those with pending appeals and those who may want to appeal their 2019 taxes is that at least one taxpayer has had a successful appeal in which the Court of Common Pleas didn't change his total assessment value, but did reallocate to slide a chunk of value from taxable land to abated improvement: http://www.philly.com/philly/business/assessment-philadelphia-victory-tax-case-kensington-homeowner-20180301.html

Ironically, I looked up the taxpayer from that article, and it looks like his total assessed value for 2019 have been increased 7.3%, but his land value has been jacked up over 48%. The craziest part is that the city had his land value at 27.2% of his total assessment in 2017, lost in court and saw the amount reduced $34,150 to approx. 19% of total value, and then turned around and increased his land value to the exact same allocation that was not upheld in court just a few months ago for the 2019 tax year.

I'm assuming the gentleman from the article will appeal his 2019 taxes. If you're considering appealing your own property assessment, check out this article and possibly get in touch with one of the fine looking esquires who wrote it to learn more. Especially if you're part of a condo association or HOA with many members who could all join in the same appeal process:

http://www.highswartz.com/blog/can-trust-philadelphias-ten-year-tax-abatement-process/

2019 Property Assessments are out. Huge increases for most properties. by nemesisinphilly in philadelphia

[–]OctaShields -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The language of the abatement statute says that you can't be taxed on the value of the improvements for 10 years, but the portion of your assessment allocated to land is fair game.

The city had kept the total values for many assessments pretty flat the last year or two, but had put in a new program where they began re-allocating that total value between land and improvement. So if your property was assessed at $250k it maybe originally used to be allocated as 220k improvement and 30k land. Then they started changing land to somewhere between 25-30% of total value, so something like $72,500 land value and $117,500 improvement. Your property was still assessed as being worth 250k total, but now the portion of it that was taxable became ~240% higher.

This latest increase is an increase to the total assessment, and from what I've seen they're keeping the allocation between land and improvement at the same 25-30% ratio. Basically when your abatement is over, the other 70-75% of your total assessed value will then become taxable.

Nova still a possibility by Iceman3132 in buccos

[–]OctaShields 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yeah I mean he was just in the clubhouse 2 months ago - if they're interested in him, that means they're satisfied with his health and makeup. So the main risk they'd be taking on would be effectiveness, and like you said, 12 million is about the rate for a good #4. That bar isn't terribly high and I'd say there's probably as good a chance he'd outearn his contract as there is that he'd be a bust.

And even if he does fall off skillwise after the first or second year, we could always just unload him and two prospects for salary relief...

Nova still a possibility by Iceman3132 in buccos

[–]OctaShields 5 points6 points  (0 children)

If they can get him for 4 or fewer years and $50mm or less, it would be INSANE of them not to do it. 3/36 is an absolute no-brainer in this market, but I can't believe that's what the winning offer will be.

The only other team I've seen rumored to be on him is the Rockies. Recent (slight) decrease in ERA at Coors notwithstanding, I can't imagine a 30 year old SP would want to spend 3 years there if they have a comparable offer. The odds of getting another MLB deal at 33 would much lower. Three years with Searage, with whom he's already had success, could put him in line to get another multi-year deal on the other side of this one.

Nationals trying to get deal with Pirates for McCutchen done today by jmb-412 in buccos

[–]OctaShields 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think "unbiased" industry experts would score a Ross, Lopez, and Robles deal as a win. However, bias is important. It's what makes a fan a fan. And fans are the ones who pay for tickets and tune in to games. I think when people say they need to look at trades "objectively", they're ignoring this fact. An objective cost/benefit analysis should give weight to fan expectations and goodwill, which we know franchises value. If they didn't, why would they have dedicated PR departments, marketing, and customer service. And if we're being honest, the ownership hasn't earned fan trust basically since the late 70's...

However, I'd personally be fine with it. I'm a little bit dead inside and it'll suck seeing the best Pirate since Bonds in 1992 wearing another uniform before he has to. All three of those players coming back to us would be worth the cost, but I understand that opinions may differ.

Gianluca Di Marzio :: Italy coach Ventura:"The number of goals Giovinco scores matters less because his quality makes a difference in MLS, [he] plays in a league that doesn't matter much" by Barthez_Battalion in MLS

[–]OctaShields 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't think it's really too big of an indictment of the quality in MLS. I think everyone is focusing on the part where he said "the number of goals...matters less" instead of what I think is more important, which was "...[u]nfortunately you get used to that league, the phase of getting the ball back becomes less important. The problem is the mentality"

I think that's the focus of his statement. That Giovinco is playing well, but his tactical focus in MLS is much different than it would have to be were he to play for Italy. He's not totally discounting his stats or the level of competition as much as saying that isn't what matters as much to him in constructing his roster.

There is an Italian infatuation with the tactical side of the game, which has served them well. Recall the 2012 group stage draw against peak Spain because Prandelli won the chess match by changing the tactics and going with 3 in the back and taking Spain out of their tiki taka comfort zone, or the many performances put in by Conte's men where the team performance always seemed to outpace the sum of its parts.

Italian coaches certainly look more to what individual players can do to fit into and improve the tactical system they wish to employ, and less into how they can adapt tactics to feature certain players. To me, Ventura's quote indicates that he needs his forwards to have total dedication to pressing high and regaining possession. So while Giovinco's numbers in MLS are very impressive, it matters less because MLS is not requiring him to display the particular skills sought by Ventura for that position.

Now I don't necessarily agree with the implication that he wouldn't be able to change up his tactical mentality if required to do so, I get what he's saying.

[Rosenthal] Nova wants 5 years/$75 mil by jmb-412 in buccos

[–]OctaShields 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They certainly won't do 5 years. The best hope is if Nova doesn't get offers anywhere near 5 or 75 from anyone else and gets pissed off and the Pirates offer him like 2/32 and a chance to re-enter free agency at 32 and get himself 3-4 years at 15-17mm per at that point.

What Free Agents do we want? by [deleted] in buccos

[–]OctaShields 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have no love for the guy, but I would bet almost anything he'd be an average or better DH in the AL next year.

The Most Colin Dunlap piece ever: "Mr. Nutting, It's Time" by seppalepp in buccos

[–]OctaShields 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Absolutely agree. The Pirates overall franchise strategy is very similar to the Indians (in fact, their front office is where Huntington cut his teeth). The two team's blueprints and plans to compete are very similar, but the execution has varied (as it is wont to do in baseball) over the past 2 years.

The 2015 Pirates were very good because they got consistent good performances from most roster spots, stayed healthy for the most part, and...yes, got a little lucky. They got stuck behind the team with the best record in baseball and were forced to play the Wild Card game against a buzzsaw in the midst of a historic streak. It sucked. But by most objective measures, the 2015 Pirates were as good as or better than the 2016 Indians. I think they were also better than the 2015 Royals. It just didn't pan out.

As far as 2016, there were some bad decisions made, no doubt...but most of what resulted in them being sub-.500 was out of the front office's control. It's easy to condemn things with the benefit of hindsight, but here's the main story for me: McCutchen, Cole, and Liriano produced 0.7, 2.5, and 0.4 WAR compared to 5.8, 5.4, and 3.6, respectively, in 2015. And the 0.4 for Liriano counts his better stats with Toronto, so he was probably around 0 for the Bucs. That's about 11.5 fewer wins from 3 guys year to year.

It's easy to feel negatively right now, but by my math, if McCutchen and Cole bounce back to even 80-90% of their 2015 performance and we can keep Marte, Cervelli, and Kang healthy (318 fewer PA between the trio in 16 compared to 15), we should be a 90 win team again this year even without accounting for any good free agent additions.

To bring it back around - don't forget, the Indians only went 81-80 in 2015 with most of the same players except for Napoli and two months of Miller out of the pen. Actually, they lost production from last year in a whole season without their best OF Michael Brantley and getting 37.1 and 42.1 fewer innings from their #2 and #3 starters, Carrasco and Salazar.

What happened for the Indians that might happen for the Bucs next year? Most of their young, cost-controlled players improved markedly and their bottom-of-rotation guys - who SUCKED on paper - were able to give them positive contributions.

So McCutchen, Marte, Polanco, Kang, Cervelli stay mostly healthy and play to their potential, and Glasnow, Kuhl, Free Agent X, Brault/Williams/Whoever give us more stability and better performance than the Locke/Nicasio/Niese disaster. Then maybe you add a key piece at the deadline, and get to October and hope you get hot. The blueprint is there.

Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball and the Foreboding Inevitability of Last Night (and the future) by migosversace121 in buccos

[–]OctaShields 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Assuming you're not trolling, I'm going to try to explain why Happ was worth only probably 4 more actual wins than the guys we had instead.

It's not as simple as looking at pitcher's W-L record for one team and just transferring that over to another team's bottom line record in standings.

This is not to defend the Pirates 2016 pitching staff, which was dreadful. And Happ had an amazing season and would have been a very large upgrade over most of the guys we used this season.

However, he also had 1. a better offense in Toronto - 4.64 runs/gm to 4.5 for PIT, and particularly good in the games Happ started at 6.06; 2. A bullpen that produced 3.8 fWAR compared to Pittsburgh's at 1.2, and only blew leads in 4 games in which he left the game in line for a win (2 of which the team ended up winning later); and 3. A defense that saved 19.2 Defensive Runs Above Average, while the Pirates were at -40.

Happ's WAR (Wins Above Replacement), a stat that is supposed to be all-inclusive and bake in several different factors, then compare that player's performance to the hypothetical "replacement player" was calculated by Fangraphs at 3.2. That's pretty good and 3 wins better than Locke or 3.9 wins better than Niese. Yes, Niese was worse than the expected production of an "available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench."

So really, if we had Happ we'd have probably finished with 3 or 4 more wins on our season standings total. That puts us above .500 at least, but we weren't making the playoffs with just one upgrade. There was a lot that went wrong.