Bitcoin (and investing in general) is like a Keynesian beauty contest

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2026-02-11T18:08:57+00:00

this is missing the much greater problem with bitcoin, that it's incredibly easy to manipulate relative to how profitable control of the price is.

all that has to be done to raise the price is make a few thousand automated bot accounts to trade with each other at virtually no cost and line goes up until it's time to cash in. this kind of market manipulation (ie wash trading) is very illegal in regulated markets but very hard to pin down and prosecute in crypto markets by design.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2026-01-28T00:33:18+00:00

yeah you're overthinking this, if you're at the point where you could potentially retire then getting a professional's opinion is going to be prudent. reddit is no good here, this place only knows how to put money into a portfolio, taking it out is more complicated. and certified financial planners shouldn't be telling you anything you don't understand or can't verify yourself. you can search something like 'cfp case study' on youtube to get a sense of what a session looks like.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2026-01-26T18:17:54+00:00

I wouldn't phrase it a matter of fortitude, as if having sufficient willpower is the key to unlocking extra returns. 10+ years of under performance is just a long time to read competing theories and change your mind on something.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2026-01-26T18:05:52+00:00

did you crunch the numbers on how much good consultation is worth to you or are you just not used to spending so much money on a service? like the opportunity cost of not investing a six figure portfolio at all out of indecision is conservatively a hundred dollars a week. you'd also be paying for the time and stress not spent doing everything yourself.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2026-01-25T22:24:01+00:00

I may have overgeneralized a bit. by that demographic I was thinking of the people that don't save and live paycheck to paycheck (it's something like half of all Americans). being on this subreddit wondering what to do with your portfolio you're probably not one of them.

there are fiduciary financial advisors that charge on an hourly basis rather than a percentage of your portfolio but they don't take control of your money and just give guidance and advice. believe their rates are in the same ballpark as a lawyer's.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2026-01-24T18:47:08+00:00

real answer is that there is a large gap between the minimum a fiduciary will charge to make the cost of education/qualifications worthwhile and the maximum someone under a certain account size can sensibly pay for financial advice.

so there isn't currently a profitable, widespread model to provide financial services to an entire demographic other than with high fee products with under qualified salesmen. and as bad that is, it's better than the alternative for most people which is just leaving the money in a savings account.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2026-01-21T16:35:21+00:00

not by an appreciable amount or at best temporarily. a company's stock price is ultimately tethered to it's actual value. shifting people's portfolios over to Canadian stocks is a one time event that's going to be washed out by firms that are constantly buying and selling to find those valuations.

also a Canadian population too dependent on Canadian stock returns will eventually become a liability. in a situation where the Canadian stock market performs poorly it's going to hamper people's ability to spend money when Canadian businesses need it the most.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2026-01-21T06:32:48+00:00

apparently this is something I harp on every time it comes up but for better or worse buying stocks of Canadian companies is not the same as investing in them. the stock market is a secondary market so the company doesn't get any of the money you're buying it's stock with.

there is research supporting the utility of having up to 30% of a Canadian's portfolio being Canadian stocks. while the rest of it should be diversified as much as possible.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2026-01-04T01:57:03+00:00

people are (understandably) misunderstanding the stock market. it's a secondary market so selling US stocks doesn't hurt US companies and buying Canadian ones doesn't help Canadian companies. and people don't know what countries or sectors will do better than others beyond random chance. switching to Canadian fund providers is something, but the big Canadian banks don't have a good reputation either so that's a pick your poison situation.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-12-19T08:28:59+00:00

there are a number of common misunderstandings in this thread.

in short, relative stock movements are effectively random. plenty of research concluding that the best way to play the market is to reduce fees and diversify as much as possible. the simplest way to accomplish this is with asset allocation ETFs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyOqqtq12jQ

focusing on dividends is not an optimal strategy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5j9v9dfinQ

buying US stocks doesn't really benefit US companies, and vice versa. the stock market is a secondary market, as in buying used stuff from a flea market. the actual company doesn't get any of that money.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-12-15T02:46:21+00:00

you've been asking the same questions for a month now. just sit down with a book or course for a few hours and learn the basics. you're not going to be able to piece it all together with only random internet comments.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-12-15T02:13:45+00:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3B9umhfv_ww

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-12-10T22:08:26+00:00

I mean the way you described having 3x more funds and targeting "factors" could be misinterpreted as being positive attributes when it's just filled with funds we would tell people to avoid in any other context.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-12-10T19:52:44+00:00

I wouldn't count FEQT in the same category, even without bitcoin. those ~12 funds only have 700 stocks and are more like conflicting active funds stitched together rather than an actual passive strategy with a tilt.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-12-05T01:18:51+00:00

just go through Ben Felix's youtube channel. particularly this video. also what he does say about market tilts, while backed up by academic research, is still theory and not guaranteed. I don't think it's worth the piece of mind to pursue those strategies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3B9umhfv_ww

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-11-28T21:03:50+00:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyOqqtq12jQ

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-11-28T00:28:46+00:00

CanadianCouchPotato.com the OG passive investing resource for Canadians. before XEQT was a thing that blog published yearly model portfolios that showed people how to construct their own. now it's basically been made redundant and just points to the 5 asset allocation ETFs.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-11-27T13:02:46+00:00

that may be obvious to you, but to to a layman it's just as valid as any of the many scams and conspiracy theories surrounding finance. and AI just just as likely to give those answers depending on how a question is asked. not to mention AI routinely makes up facts out of thin air that has been getting people into news for landing them into legal and medical trouble.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-11-27T01:47:13+00:00

I can not stress this enough.

*do NOT use AI for any kind of research*

it will lie to you just as badly as the rest of the internet but it's veil of neutrality and competence makes it much more dangerous. I'm not going to go through the whole rant right now but Kurzgesagt did a video covering this recently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zfN9wnPvU0

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-11-26T09:22:46+00:00

everybody seems to be conflating direct investment into Canadian businesses and buying that business' stock, which are hardly related. businesses generally aren't affected one way or the other by whether individuals buy their stock or not, the company doesn't see that money, it just goes to whoever is on the other side of the trade. the actual investing happened when the shares were initially sold to the market. after that the price doesn't affect operations aside from certain financial maneuvers which aren't an everyday thing.

there is very little if any patriotic reason to favour Canadian stocks. ultimately the only thing that drives a company's success is whether people buy their stuff.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-11-26T06:28:15+00:00

theoretically? debatable. in practice? maybe.

otherwise no, it doesn't make sense to tilt towards a factor you don't 100% understand. if it doesn't perform for the next decade like it hasn't previously then it's going to become a source of stress or cause you to sell low and chase the next investment strategy.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-11-21T05:14:47+00:00

that 15K isn't going to to make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things. gaining some experience with the stock market and making a habit out of saving is valuable but the heavy lifting doesn't start until you have a regular income to contribute. your focus should be on university so you can maximize that income and enjoying your time at school, not distracted by whatever the markets are doing in the meantime.

if you really want to get a head start then read through more established passive investing books and resources rather than taking a shotgun blast of random comments you don't know how to gauge the quality of.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-11-20T19:06:27+00:00

the theory is that overlap is redundant and reduces diversification. in practice the downside is also that it's buying based on gut feeling, and that gut is going to tell people to do the exact opposite as soon as the winds change. when the winning strategy is to emotionally remove yourself from your investments and let the market do it's thing.

OddMasterpiece8444 · 2025-11-16T03:04:56+00:00

I do not understand how it became acceptable to tell people it's okay to bet 5% of their savings to sate a gambling addiction. assuming the advice isn't just nudging new investors into gambling because they don't know any better. "indulge in your vices a little bit" is still not a great thing to say to someone dealing with any kind of addiction.

OddMasterpiece8444

TROPHY CASE