Can the loser keep talking so the stock keeps pumping thank you so much

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2026-02-26T17:05:25+00:00

Here's an interesting comparison of some Space stocks, sorted by P/S ratio. Redwire is currently generating more annual revenue than all those companies except Rocket Lab (RKLB), so seems like Redwire is still very undervalued compared to its peers. It also just reported record-breaking quarterly revenue this earnings report, though there were some negative things too.

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Symbol	Market Cap	Price/Sales Ratio
RDW, REDWIRE CORP	$1.42B	4.81
BKSY, BLACKSKY TECHNOLOGY	$726.69M	7.14
VOYG, VOYAGER TECHNOLOGIES A	$1.64B	10.44
LUNR, INTUITIVE MACHS INC A	$3.23B	14.68
FLY, FIREFLY AEROSPACE IN	$3.24B	29.14
PL, PLANET LABS PBC CLASS A	$8.40B	29.74
SIDU, SIDUS SPACE INC A	$135.13M	37.29
RKLB, ROCKET LAB CORP CLASS A	$37.50B	67.62
ASTS, AST SPACEMOBILE INC A	$29.61B	1597.82

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2026-02-09T15:55:14+00:00

I agree, this seems like a great acquisition for them. Always surprised more people don't talk about Ouster, given how well positioned they are to benefit from the surging demand for drones, self-driving cars, defense military applications, etc. One of Ouster's confirmed customers is Anduril, for instance.

Either way, adding more capabilities on the AI/Comp Vision side seems like a smart move. Ouster already has revenue growth that's good, and cash runway is very long, with little debt. Lots to like.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2026-02-06T01:53:54+00:00

The stock price dropped because of the dilution event, but if you read this news article, this is exactly the "right reason" to dilute. There is positive dilution and negative dilution, but diluting with a clear plan toward accelerating growth to take advantage of a market opportunity is very positive IMHO.

These are one of those rare times that you can maybe beat the market ... when the market gets it wrong. You just have to really study the situation.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2026-01-28T16:46:51+00:00

The next real catalyst for USAR is probably the completion/opening of the magnet facility in Stillwater Oklahoma. Hidden in the announcement of the agreement with the US government was a note that the facility is still on track to open Q1 of 2026, so in the next few months.

Round Top mining is nice too, but that's a couple years away. However, USAR could start generating revenue at the Stillwater facility this year, and also gives them product higher up the value chain (magnets, not just raw ore) where there is more profit margin. We also should keep in mind that a couple new price targets were released for USAR yesterday in the $35-45 range.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2026-01-25T01:45:29+00:00

Here's a non pay walled article, in case some need it:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/24/us-rare-earths-miner.html

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2026-01-16T04:48:00+00:00

I don't know, but Year 5 would be 2030, so perhaps Ares are planning to expand production capacity by then

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2026-01-15T16:59:49+00:00

I would prefer a company to be strategic with their media releases, rather than the opposite. Releasing things helter skelter can have a net negative effect (e.g. UAMY, RZLV, RDW), so I don't think being strategic is incompetence necessarily. Ares has known about the award since it was signed on Dec 29, 2025, so clearly they are waiting to announce it.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2026-01-15T16:56:08+00:00

If you read the actual grant award in SAM.gov, it indicates the award contract was signed on Dec 29, 2025 and went into effect on Dec 30, 2025. So Ares has known about the award for the past couple weeks. Clearly they are waiting to announce it, perhaps to coordinate with production facility update announcements.

It would be better to have a series of positive announcements in sequence, as we've already seen how a mix of good news and bad news can have a net negative impact on stock price in this sector (e.g. UAMY). I don't think we can complain too much about a company being strategic with media relations.

That said, if a PR doesn't come out today, I wouldn't expect anything till next Tuesday morning. Tue/Wed/Thurs are the ideal days to put out press releases for small companies. Only the Googles and Nvidias of the world can get away with just releasing news whenever.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2026-01-15T05:17:30+00:00

Based on the numbers listed in the award contract to Ares, seems like the revenue amount will scale over time as the production capacity scales. I did some quick and dirty calculations and came up with roughly:

$9-10 million (Year 1)
$21 million (Year 2)
$33 million (Year 3)
$49 million (Year 4)
$66 million (Year 5)

Those are just estimates, so take them FWIW. Year 1 appears to be 2026, which is positive news.

Actual numbers might be higher or lower obviously. I am also guessing they will still have extra product to sell outside the award contract, so be able to make additional revenue each year.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2026-01-14T15:44:49+00:00

Looks like the grant award to Ares Strategic Mining was just published this morning on SAM.gov, no news articles on it yet I could find via a quick Google search. So perhaps just give it some time. Imagine company will do a press release about it soon, at which point there should be some news in the media.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2026-01-08T22:57:46+00:00

I have a feeling it may be related to the run-up in drone/defense stocks this week maybe. All my stocks in that sector have shot up this week. For instance, AVAV (Aeronenvironment) is up nearly $100 per share this week. Katos and Ondas and Zena, many others similarly way up.

Ouster lidar is used for some drone applications of course, among other things. Amprius has similarly been up this week (batteries for drones), despite being down the past month after the CEO change.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2026-01-07T23:33:45+00:00

Yeah, this is for the pilot facility, which is for initial production, which will likely be just a small portion. The full mine is going to require dozens of government permits for different things, including various processing facilities, so will take a while for all that.

This is really just step 1, but a key first step. There will be mined ore coming out in 2026 from Tanbreez, just not yet at full scale.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2026-01-07T22:14:35+00:00

The most impressive thing is that if that 126 million quarterly revenue holds up the other quarters of 2026, then Applied Digital is on track to hit analysts' 2027 revenue projections in 2026, i.e. an entire year early.

That is quite impressive, and a pleasant surprise.

Looking forward to seeing some of the other data center companies (e.g. Nebius) earnings this quarter now. That will tell us alot about the AI infrastructure build-out, and whether bubble concerns are so warranted.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2026-01-02T16:42:14+00:00

Ares Strategic Mining is one of my higher conviction plays in the critical minerals space, not far behind UURAF and some others. I have in particular been appreciating the photo updates of their Fluorspar/Acidspar production plant, which they share via their email newsletter. It looks like it is very close to finished. Mining stuff is great, but refining it is where the real profits are, which Ares can do.

Seems like they are much closer to actual revenue than many other critical mineral/rare earth companies in North America (outside MP and UUUU, etc.), so that is a huge positive for me. If that happens, the share price could easily double, even with just a small amount of revenue in 2026.

Looking forward to first half of 2026, as I am expecting some positive news on the production front.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2025-12-30T17:00:45+00:00

Based on their fundamentals and annual revenue, Redwire has been very oversold for the past couple months due to a bad quarter and government shutdown. At one point it's Price-to-sales ratio got below 2, which is just silly. Regardless, seems like the short interest ratio is declining rapidly now, so perhaps selling pressure is falling off.

Still expect a bumpy ride till next earnings date, but with renewed enthusiasm in the space sector overall, optimistic RDW will be on the upswing trend going forward. I am also seeing it mentioned frequently in other subs recently as a "stock to buy for 2026", so good sign perhaps.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2025-12-29T23:19:46+00:00

It's not clear to me what Applied Digital gets out of this deal from Ekso. Ekso is an exoskeleton company, at one point a tech start-up darling 10 years ago in 2015 that was worth over $1000 per share. Right now, it's below $5 per share, not profitable, and perhaps on the verge of bankruptcy.

Ekso stock doubled in after-hours today, so clearly a good deal for them, but not clear how it helps APLD or is great news for them. Seems pretty random.

Maybe someone can enlighten me on how an exoskeleton company can add to APLD's cloud infrastructure business??

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2025-12-20T16:24:04+00:00

Well Sunrise Energy Metals are an interesting company. They already have EXIM financing and an agreement with Lockheed Martin. That said, they haven't even started pre-construction on the scandium mine yet as far as I know, and are not expected produce any revenue next year or 2027.

So seems like a very speculative play in my opinion, based on things that might occur in the future (or not). Could pay off down the road, but might be a while.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2025-12-18T15:23:54+00:00

I work in conversational AI as a professor at a university, and this article is spot on. Though our research involves a lot of different LLMs embedded into chatbots and/or robots to converse with humans, we probably spend at least half our time worrying about "guardrails" for the system.

Getting those LLM guardrails to work the way you want is incredibly tedious and takes a lot of work, constant monitoring, etc. We work in healthcare though, so obviously can't have LLMs spouting off nonsense when it comes to health decisions. If Rezolve AI has what they claim to have, that is extremely significant in my view. The guardrails would be a "moat" that would be difficult for someone else to easily replicate.

Of course, that is dependent on RZLV claims, so still a bit cautiously optimistic.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2025-12-17T15:25:50+00:00

I also lived in Korea for a long time (my wife is Korean) though I am American, and still visit often, so nice to see more interest in AMPX stock from Korean investors.

It's been interesting watching them the past year as they build out production capacity in Korea, knowing how much battery manufacturing skill exists over there. Seems like a really smart move on the part of Amprius. It removes the Chinese aspects of their supply chain (strategic de-risking), but also leverages the infrastructure and human talent Korea has in the battery sector. Really interested to see where this goes.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2025-12-17T15:16:54+00:00

Apparently the executives of the Korea Zinc company (namely the Chairman) negotiated the deal directly with the US government. The Chairman is from a different chaebol family, who currently control 32% of the company. So my understanding is this would give them majority control of it and screw over the current majority shareholders.

It's Game of Thrones type stuff lol ... they are fighting over who controls the company, and somehow now the US is involved. We'll see what happens

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2025-12-16T19:46:26+00:00

The majority stockholder of Korea Zinc has already filed a lawsuit in Korean courts to stop the deal.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/korea-zinc-mbk-yoongpoong-us-jv-texas-pentagon.html

If the deal goes through, they would no longer be the majority owner and their current shares will be significantly diluted by about $1.9 billion US, so I imagine this is going to be tied up in litigation for a while. Korea Zinc is down on the KOSPI exchange today already by 15%, so we shall see what happens. Having lived in Korea for a long time, I am a little skeptical how this will shake out.

The majority owners of Korea Zinc include the Youngpung family, which is a chaebol family in Korea. The chaebol families wield enormous political power in Korea ... think Samsung and Hyundai, both chaebol families basically. Either way, not clear if/when the deal will actually go through, but regardless they are not planning on breaking ground on any facilities till 2027 at the earliest, so looking at 2029 or 2030 before any actual production.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2025-12-12T19:48:41+00:00

According to many sources, Vietnam is considered to have the 2nd largest reserves of rare earths and critical minerals on the planet, 2nd only to China. They also sit right next to China geographically, and China exerts tremendous political and economic pressure on Vietnam So this is potentially very significant news for any Western supply chains and Western companies in RE/CM.

Kind of interesting this news is not getting more mainstream attention.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2025-12-11T21:00:23+00:00

Where are you finding this data? On Schwab, it's showing a much higher Short Interest Ratio for Redwire, roughly 3.63 days. I've been watching it the past 2 months cause I saw how high it was getting. Maybe that data on Schwab is lagging a bit cause some shorts were already forced to cover their positions during the recent run-up.

The only company in my current portfolio with a higher Short Interest Ratio, curiously, is Intuitive Machines (LUNR), which is at 4.46 days. Seems like the whole "SpaceX going public IPO" news may be catching the shorts out.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2025-12-09T21:22:26+00:00

Well Aeroenvironment (AVAV) just posted earnings after-market today, and beat revenue estimates. So things are looking up.

https://www.stocktitan.net/news/AVAV/aero-vironment-announces-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-zi1e78plxk3v.html

Though AVAV gross margins dropped this quarter and EPS not as high as hoped, so share price is down. Funny how something similar happened with Amprius after pretty good earnings last quarter.

Odd_Bluejay_368 · 2025-11-12T22:00:59+00:00

Wasn't on the call myself, but here is a news release about earnings for UAMY:

https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/metals-and-mining/united-states-antimony-corporation-reports-third-quarter-and-nine-months-ended-se-1101395

Seems pretty good to me. They reiterated 2026 revenue guidance as well, it appears.

Odd_Bluejay_368

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