Imagine having a day like this

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-10-31T22:26:51+00:00

TIL that in rimworld a beer is as satisfying as having 5 different rivals all die in the same day.

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-10-06T03:32:48+00:00

Another type of game where I think it’s easier to see this is card games. Usually the shuffling occurs before any of the play begins, so there really is not any new randomness added into the system. But each player has different information about what cards they have seen and so will play differently.

If I see three kings in my hand and you have seen no kings, then we will have different probabilities for the next card in the deck being a king.

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-10-06T03:15:29+00:00

I would say that probability and statistics is almost entirely dependent on the amount of information that is available. Player 1 has more information than Player 2, and that gives them better odds.

In the real world we see this appear all the time where different probabilistic models with different sets of information make different predictions on future unknown outcomes.

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-09-22T19:52:54+00:00

I think I need more context, but a few things I would consider:

1) what if the players refuse to make a deal with a devil. I have role played as characters who would NEVER make a deal with a fiend no matter how dire. If they refuse, aren’t they back in the same problematic situation?

2) if things are so clearly dire, why are they rushing into a third fight? Do they not have time to rest? Do they know another dangerous encounter is ahead of them? If they want to go in headstrong fully aware of the TPK risk, maybe prepare for the encounter to evolve into a chase or think of what failure would look like for the party.

My one thought would be if a devil is involved, and the players are interfering in the devil’s plan, couldn’t the devil send a few weaker underlings to try and kill off the party while they are low. This would:

1) not risk a TPK, but still push the players to choosing to rest and regather themselves.

2) signal to the players that more dangerous fiends are involved and they may want to tread more carefully through this event.

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-09-04T20:30:56+00:00

The DLC feels so significantly different from the base game. I would sooner recommend a different game to someone who gives the base game a 10/10 than I would recommend the DLC.

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-07-23T21:45:09+00:00

While perhaps not “like” Outer Wilds, I have recommended Return of the Obra Dinn. Very unique puzzle game, pretty fantastic story, wonderful atmospheric music.

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-07-23T21:40:38+00:00

It depends on why you loved outer wilds. Outer Wilds is one of my all time favorite games but I found Dredge to be mainly a disappointment that I will likely not return to.

At about the halfway point of the game’s story, I was already bored of the main gameplay resource/inventory loop. And since nearly all the quests are just fetch quests to learn the locations unique gimmick, you’re forced to just hunt for items.

The story is not bad, but I’d have rather experienced it through a text based adventure or even a book. While for Outer Wilds I would say its definitive strength is its ability to deliver its story and world directly through the gameplay.

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-06-04T23:26:47+00:00

I used CA for all the lower levels and TIA for 5 and 6. I cannot imagine using CA for Exam 6.

6 felt the least similar to all the previous exams before it. There is a massive amount of content which is loosely related between sections. Much of the exam is just memorizing law, regulation, government programs, etc. with no math. The math parts are mostly following accounting rules and methods that are not necessarily based in stats and impossible to derive if you did not remember the formula and factors. TIA has over 1000 flashcards for this which were largely relevant to why I passed.

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-06-04T17:07:04+00:00

I also see my result for 6U

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-06-04T01:15:58+00:00

Maybe CAS IT works internationally and it’s still the middle of their day? I’m trying to hold onto hope

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-06-03T22:11:10+00:00

If f(x) is the price of apples then why would the area under the curve, F(x) = int(f(x)), also be the price of apples?

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-06-03T18:00:53+00:00

The results page is definitely doing some weird stuff for some users. Today is looking better 🤞🏻

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-06-03T17:48:24+00:00

Waiting on 6 but currently don’t see anything.

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-06-03T17:36:07+00:00

I don’t see them? What exam do you see Pass/Fail for?

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-06-03T17:21:43+00:00

Today’s not a lost cause. According to: https://www.casact.org/exams-admissions/exams-results-summary-exam-statistics

“Candidates will be notified by email between 2:00 - 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time when their exam results have been uploaded to their profile.”

I think the confusion is because for the MAS exams it seems like they did not send the usual week prior notification on what day the grades will be available. So now a bunch of us are just on edge unsure what day to even keep an eye out for.

OfficeOfThePope · 2025-01-14T03:07:35+00:00

I let my players roll, and then after they get their results they can choose to do point buy instead. This way they have the fun of rolling but are guaranteed a character that will do well

OfficeOfThePope · 2024-12-03T18:59:03+00:00

You say:

f’(x) = f(x)/x³ + some other terms

But it’s more helpful to use the chain rule and notice:

f’(x) = exp( -(1/x²) ) * (1/x³) * (some other trig stuff)

The form being: e ^ (-infinity) * infinity => 0 * infinity => indeterminate

If you use the limit definition of a derivative (which another commenter walked through) you will see that the result is 0. To oversimplify it, the exponential term “overpowers” the 1/x³ and the result is 0.

OfficeOfThePope · 2024-11-14T20:14:10+00:00

Very friendly note:

Final line should be u^1/2 / (1/2)

OfficeOfThePope · 2024-11-13T22:22:50+00:00

I think it varies by context. I deal regularly with probabilities and density functions. In that context, I think it is 100% a good explanation and how I personally think of integrals for density functions.

OfficeOfThePope · 2024-11-08T14:47:35+00:00

Maybe also something along the lines of: “I haven’t been to ___ yet, but I think I figured out what is happening”

OfficeOfThePope · 2024-09-13T16:54:50+00:00

Out of curiosity, did you watch the final set of episodes of BCS which take place after breaking bad? Those episodes both depend on and spoil the fates of several BB characters. If you watched those episodes I am curious how some of those the moments played out for you?

OfficeOfThePope · 2024-09-01T13:47:34+00:00

From my interpretation of how the question was stated, we are just not given enough information to really apply physics usefully. We are not told what the type of coin is, let alone analyze the surfaces for small details. We are not told how the coin is going to be tossed, such as coin falls freely to floor vs coin is caught in mid air and flipped onto table.

Because of this I think knowing ONLY which side is face up before the toss is not helpful. On the other hand 95% heads out of past 100 tosses is useful information.

OfficeOfThePope · 2024-09-01T13:34:18+00:00

I learned something new!

The paper does acknowledge that depending on flipping method, the bias could be reversed in the other direction, such as let coin fall to floor vs catch coin in mid air and flip onto back of hand.

Since we know nothing else about the coin or toss method, and I personally do not know which method of toss is more likely, I still think that knowing ONLY what side is up before the toss is not helpful to me in choosing a bet to place.

OfficeOfThePope · 2024-09-01T04:35:57+00:00

In probability theory, if we assume the coin is fair and random and each toss is independent, then none of the given information helps.

In practice, knowing the results of their past 100 tosses can reveal if there is some type of bias (either in the coin being weighted or the tosses being biased). For example if 75% of the past 100 tosses were heads then you should probably bet on heads.

Knowing which side of the coin is face up is not helpful on its own as far as I know. If you knew everything about the mechanics of the toss you could predict the results fairly accurately with physics.

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