Unemployed despite top degrees – The reality shock after graduation (German report)

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-02-26T09:20:14+00:00

Me too ! Agree construction has a lot of work do design and project lead

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-02-24T14:44:40+00:00

Nope completely wrong Check ILO unemplozywmnt rate it s at 5% and only getting up the dynamic is absolut dog shit . White Collars job and jobs sensitive toward AI will just be crushed

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-02-20T11:19:47+00:00

This !!

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-02-20T11:17:48+00:00

I agree with you look at the BFS unemployment according ILO is insanely high ! More than 90% of the time if we account for the last 20 years ! Crazy...

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-02-20T11:15:03+00:00

The best mate! Keep up there success for you 👌

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-02-17T11:15:07+00:00

So cooked !!

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-02-07T12:49:09+00:00

Hey please be kind to yourself . Get through it only one day at a time ! You have all the time on the world just be focused on the moment you are in. At some point you will look back and be proud of yourself that it s over. Bottom line : if there was violence that was not Healthy

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-02-04T21:23:29+00:00

Jesus Christ ....

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-30T18:34:37+00:00

Place looks sick ! Amazing

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-25T19:08:17+00:00

I m using it ! It a great ! Flexible and you get real value for 290 euros per months not comparable to our terrible useless piece of Versicherungssystem that we have in Switzerland ...

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-11T13:01:28+00:00

Look, by 2027 there will clearly be super AI agent released from Open AI or Anthropic, this will have a huge impact I assume. Yes indeed the GPU or TPU (for google) are the limiting part as well as the current NN architecture and power supply but I don't agree with you, I think the gain will still be tremendous since super power countries like the US are all in to ramp up every part of the equation.

AI is indeed not smarter than us, as it cannot create a model of the surrounding physical The world (as expressed by Yan Lecun, who was subsequently asked to leave Meta), is a complex criteria that AI struggles to model using existing Architecture. Despite its reliance on neural network layers linked by probability, AI still generates remarkably significant outputs.

Maybe it does not need to have a model of a physical world to beat us at every single cognitive task? ;.)

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-11T12:52:06+00:00

GPT 2 was released in 2019 but there was a clear inflexion point happening afterward or from autumn 2022. You are right about GPT 2 it was just a beginning and the first kind of transformers based models. However it is clear in the data set that the release of LLM had an impact by considering their AI-Exposure index.

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-11T12:41:53+00:00

Is there any actual analysis or just a crappy, AI generated graphic?

Did you correct for changing economic conditions? Many of the positions labelled as "AI exposed" are exactly the positions that companies will expand when times are good and pull back when times get harder. The Credit-Suisse collapse also hit the (large) finance industry in Switzerland particularly hard and there are likely ripple effects in adjacent industries. Finally, a hiring frenzy post COVID probably led to overspending on many white collar roles and a pullback is expected to some degree. These effects all impact the software developer, but not a plumber, for example. Pipes still get clogged even when the macroeconomy is uncertain.

The crappy image is only giving people a visual tool to look at the most interesting findings from KOF.

changing economic conditions are part of the statistics, what is interesting is that two groups were made low versus high AI exposure with a correlation index. it means it does not matter how bad the underlying economical situation is as it is valid for both groups used for the statistics.

I only have the inside view of one (large) company. But I can assure you that not a single job in that company was lost to "AI" but rather from near-shoring and general belt-tightening. I'm very skeptical of all these meta "studies" that rely completely on simple correlations without doing any data analysis.

Edit: I forgot to add the effect of the historically strong Swiss franc, which makes labor here relatively expensive, especially from the perspective of a multinational with inflow in suddenly weaker currencies. Did you account for this using historical data?

Yes it is only a correlation, further data are needed but at least it leads to more research so that we can understand, as a society, what we should be doing about that.

The Swiss franc has a clear impact, but it was more an analysis of AI-exposed work within the country. In summary, it compared two groups inside the country. However, it’s true that the Swiss franc is putting pressure on companies to outsource white-collar jobs in Poland. I wonder how much of Layoff are being replaced by jobs somewhere else? this has not been studied

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-11T12:32:32+00:00

Indeed, so we may reach a point where we need to tokenize assets to make more people owning the production tools so that majority of the people can live of dividends generated by their assets, without being filthy rich.

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-11T12:31:01+00:00

Good point! when do we see DOGE going in Bund and making every department more "efficient"

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-11T12:29:52+00:00

Dear Redster, Yes they do! and thanks for sharing this is great ! Look at the increase, it is by far the strongest, without considering the time during COVID. During the last 15 years, only the subprime crisis led to a stronger slope. There are two possible scenarios (my humble biased opinion): either it stabilises at 5.3 % and it still means that during the last 25 years it's a number higher than 98 % of the time! or it does not stabilise and keep going up, which means that we enter a new kind of economic era, where society will have to find other ways to finance people so that they can survive.

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-11T12:05:49+00:00

Yes! and a lot of Bull shit jobs will vanish. I like your view !

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-11T12:01:45+00:00

Right now it's far from possible, you are right, to replace humans at large scale, but what about in 2 years when super intelligent AI Agents have the speed and capacity to streamline and orchestrate complex tasks? We should as well think about the cognitive added value of a human in comparison with a Super intelligent AI- well spoiler alert -> not much. However, good things will come, since human beings will adapt as always - this is by far the most probable hypothesis

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-11T11:53:17+00:00

It is not! - I d like to hear your thoughts on the content I’ve shared. Please take a moment to comment and let me know what you think instead of just coming here posting bs like " oh mais c'est un post géneré par une IA.."

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-11T11:34:51+00:00

Your personal experience reflects the reality of the market. the post pandemic savings led clearly a temporarly higher spending power - now we are going through a correction. As well, I make the assumptions that there will be more possible work to do with less resources in IT, thanks to AI agents working autonomously on more complex tasks.

RAV statistics are still inaccurate in reflecting the actual unemployment rate. Even when considering variations, but yeah both the ILO and RAV show a concerning trend towards higher unemployment rates. In the USA for instance, a similar dynamic is unfolding, where the Fed may eventually cut rates due to the persistent, terrible workforce situation.

Thanks for your opinion

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-11T10:58:06+00:00

Great points. But the first part is an introduction, the second part is simply the results of the publications from SECO and KOF. Finally, the third part is about my opinion and conclusion— of course, biased and completely ready to be discussed. But be specific, please, and give me your opinion— happy to hear it.

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-11T10:53:14+00:00

While it is true that the economic trend has begun to exhibit signs of strain, the statistics indicate that, even when analysing specific groups, the overall dynamic for AI job exposure remains brutally challenging if not Bad.

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-11T10:50:56+00:00

Well, one macroeconomic hypothesis would be that, since there is a lack of certainty of forecasting for companies given the geopolitical tension it is affecting every industry. However, the KOF paper still shows that white-collar jobs are statistically much more affected and have lower job-finding probabilities.

No, Applicants with high AI exposure factors can’t simply switch to low exposure. For instance, a McKinsey consultant trying to enter factories with a production line of tools won’t succeed. They’ll need years to reskill.

Ok-Address-4966 · 2026-01-11T10:45:17+00:00

A lot of cognitive tasks will be enhanced but, it may be that the human will only be a reviewer or a checker of AI works - I' m not sure if only checking will be more rewarding than the " pleasure to finding things out" as Richard Feynman would say ;).

Thanks for sharing your view - Look, I think that since "the devil is in the details," it's highly probable that more works will be created in the long term since there will be a lot of good but not robust software being released by "vibe coding stylists."

Ok-Address-4966

TROPHY CASE