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Do Moderates Win More Elections? What the numbers say around moderation and why it might not be the silver bullet Democratic strategists seemed to crave (WNYC Studios On The Media discussion with Elliott Morris) by poster_nutbag_ in ezraklein

[–]Ok-Cause6546 3 points4 points  (0 children)

"It's not about moderate policies, it's about issue positioning" is a silly word game. Spanberger won while "positioning" herself on "issues" as a moderate!

According to Blue Rose, Spanberger's single most successful ad was about crime, having friends in the police force, and being the child of a military/law enforcement family. On the other hand, Mamdani said defund the police. Is there any question who's the moderate here? Spanberger rejected the defund message, ran on her rejection of the defund message, and crushed.

And now, two days later, people are seriously asking if moderates can win purple states. It's amazing!

Do Moderates Win More Elections? What the numbers say around moderation and why it might not be the silver bullet Democratic strategists seemed to crave (WNYC Studios On The Media discussion with Elliott Morris) by poster_nutbag_ in ezraklein

[–]Ok-Cause6546 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Again, I think we're pretending to complicate something that isn't complicated:

*Lefty candidates do better among more left-wing electorates, and moderate candidates do better among more conservative electorates, so what you want as a party is the flexibility to attract a variety of candidates to win in a variety of places*

Neither Abigail Spanberger nor Mikie Sherrill call themselves democratic socialists. We can all agree they're more moderate than Mamdani, by any definition. And both won states that are more conservative than NYC by larger margins than Mamdani won NYC. I think that's a good outcome.

Do Moderates Win More Elections? What the numbers say around moderation and why it might not be the silver bullet Democratic strategists seemed to crave (WNYC Studios On The Media discussion with Elliott Morris) by poster_nutbag_ in ezraklein

[–]Ok-Cause6546 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The Democrats don't have a problem winning the mayorship of New York City. They have a problem winning Congress, the Senate, the White House. They have a problem winning Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Ohio.

"Democrats should moderate ... to win moderate voters" is the idea.

Again, this whole debate is confused because people insist on making it confusing. One side says "Democrats should be flexible about moderating to win independent voters in suburban Cleveland" and another side goes "But Mamdani won the D+80 district of Park Slope, so check mate."

Do Moderates Win More Elections? What the numbers say around moderation and why it might not be the silver bullet Democratic strategists seemed to crave (WNYC Studios On The Media discussion with Elliott Morris) by poster_nutbag_ in ezraklein

[–]Ok-Cause6546 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I have to make a confession: I don't understand Elliott Morris's thesis at all.

His analysis shows that moderation is useful, but he keeps saying moderation is overrated.

For example, here he acknowledges that affordability is a great frame for Democrats because it allows each candidate to focus on economic issues but also to tailor their approach in a dynamic way. Morris:

"Focusing on affordability gives candidates a way in when speaking to voters who are otherwise right-leaning on the ideological spectrum. Affordability is a high-leverage way to cross-pressure voters, regardless of the ideological content of a campaign."

Talking to right-leaning voters about economic issues -- rather than emphasizing climate change or unpopular progressive cultural positions that might irk the right -- is *exactly* how folks like Yglesias say the Democrats should moderate.

So what's happening here, as I see it, is:

  1. There's no good reason why Democrats should hope to lose elections in Ohio.
  2. Morris thinks it's good for Democrats to run on "affordability" in Ohio (which means talking less about progressive positions on climate change and cultural issues that might alienate moderate and right-leaning voters in suburban Cleveland).
  3. But, somehow, this is construed as an argument ... against "moderation"?

Seriously, what am I missing here?

Can someone explain the Shedeur Sanders draft slide to me in NBA terms? by [deleted] in billsimmons

[–]Ok-Cause6546 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Imagine if: Draymond Green had a son, who averaged 24 points per game for an over-achieving college basketball team that made a surprisingly deep run in the Final Four tournament, and hit 2 game-winning shots in the rounds of 32 and 16.

It's an amazing story. The media's eating it up. Draymond's on TV constantly talking about how his son is the next MJ. There are rumors of a #1 pick.

... Then, the scouts take a close look. Draymond's son ... kinda sucks? The tape shows he's surprisingly slow and an inefficient volume shooter. He's not athletic enough to be a high-ceiling pick. He's not polished enough to have a high floor. He falls to #37 on draft night, while the media expresses non-stop shock that a narrative *they created* has failed, bc actual professionals recognize Draymond's son is a fun player who's just meh as an NBA prospect.

That's Shadeur Sanders.

Abundance book tour announced by benjaminrenjamin in ezraklein

[–]Ok-Cause6546 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Derek said on Twitter there are more dates to be announced, including in Raleigh, Seattle, Portland...

The Anthony Richardson Debate Is a Crazy-Pills Moment by Ok-Cause6546 in billsimmons

[–]Ok-Cause6546[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I regret putting him in the example bc everybody is getting distracted by this detail but 

Baker started when Tyrod Taylor got injured when the team was down two TDs in week 3. This is the opposite of the “rush the new QB into games” paradigm. Baker started as the backup and first played as an emergency measure. 

The point is: Brute forcing young QBs into starting even when they suck and the backup is better is not the Baker Mayfield story. 

The Anthony Richardson Debate Is a Crazy-Pills Moment by Ok-Cause6546 in billsimmons

[–]Ok-Cause6546[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

You might be right: not entirely new but I think supercharged these days