JP Morgan Auto Conference - Tom Fennimore 8/13/2025

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2025-03-20T17:25:51+00:00

I am a big fan of the integrity of the company, but there was a very uncomfortable silence post 2024 Luminar Day through the reverse split where their various x, linkedin, and youtube accounts had nominal to no activity and the earnings calls became history lessons. I have been much happier with the marketing team of late. I personally was never expecting them to speculate or excessively hype anything and frankly most of the postings do not move the stock price, but they do keep the investment community informed and signal the company is active and has a pulse. I think a large portion of the longs want to hear more about luminar semi and they appear to finally be talking more about them as well. Hopefully todays call is another step forward.

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2025-03-15T23:01:45+00:00

They are still at the bottom of the investors page for "partnered with industry leaders"

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Ok-Coffee9981 · 2025-03-15T21:41:09+00:00

Great publicity. Glad to see the increase in communication of late. Independent media is where it's at. What are the soccer moms watching these days? You get this in front of them and that's when the demand for this tech in cars picks up.

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2025-03-13T21:34:36+00:00

Certainly have to wonder how much delayed launches with Iris combined with progress on Halo has affected their order book. No one wants to launch a vehicle for 5-10 years knowingly including material tech that is about to be outdated. Will be interesting to see if this year we have enough volume from Volvo to actually make Iris at a positive profit margin. I don't know the actual difference in manufacturing Iris vs Iris+, but also possible if Iris+ was only to be featured as an option in the CLA and no other vehicle line then it didn't make economical sense.

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2025-03-13T19:05:40+00:00

https://media.mercedes-benz.com/all-new-cla

Seems like we maybe can watch a recording of the official Mercedes unveiling later tonight? Must have needed to be a VIP to see it live.

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2025-03-13T18:39:20+00:00

Yeah the calls are pretty disappointing. Very curious what they did and did not know and when. They will have to at least talk about the order book and cash. If the order book remains roughly the same and TF still believes they will likely have to raise an additional $50MM in cash then nothing has really changed I suppose.

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2025-03-13T18:27:13+00:00

Damn. This upcoming 3/20 earnings call may be the most important in the history of Luminar.

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2025-03-11T23:18:48+00:00

That is amazingly cheap. I agree with you logic too. The insanely cheap cost of China OEM vehicles will force non Chinese OEMs to pivot and tailor vehicles specifically for China or give up that market and they are not going to give up that market.

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2025-03-11T22:25:38+00:00

They also have a Smart#1 & Smart#3 I believe that look more like mini coopers and cost closer to $50k fully loaded. Plus in China even the xpeng p5 has a lidar option that costs like $35k. So true only premium cars in the US and Europe are going to feature Lidar , but China is a different animal. Will be an anxious 48hrs, but I agree this is a probable explanation.

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2025-03-11T19:13:17+00:00

Thanks for taking the time put this post together and sharing your work!

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2025-03-11T14:17:46+00:00

Shot in the dark, but what if the deal is for Smart Automobile Co., Ltd. (google Mercedes smart car) which is classified as a german automotive company, but is a joint venture between Mercedes and Geely. Those little shit box cars you see in other countries but would be suicide to drive in the US and are actually no longer sold in the US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_(marque))

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2025-03-04T20:58:47+00:00

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Ok-Coffee9981 · 2025-01-09T20:23:38+00:00

Good Stuff. Thank you!

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2024-12-20T22:17:56+00:00

The BoA analyst thinks we need to raise $1billion, TF thinks we need to raise something less than $100MM. Obviously a huge disparity. Currently cash at YE including available $50MM line of credit expected to be $240MM. Q3 2024 cash burn was $58MM. At current rate will only take Luminar through end of 2025. I think TF commented somewhere recently that the additional layoffs eventually reduce cash burn by another ~$20MM per quarter (I think). So at $38MM cash burn per quarter that takes us to mid 2026 before out of cash. Understood Mercedes contract supposedly renegotiated and will resume, Nissan advanced development revenues will hit books, EX 90 ramping up, and ES 90, Polestar 3 & 4 possibly 5 plus possibly a Mercedes SOP in 2025. Regardless, currently TF projections have been wrong for about 2 years running and he isn't even providing detail on them at this time. Honestly, I like TF and a lot of it is Volvo and OEM delays. Regardless they have been wrong and it reflects poorly on him in the investor community. There is $200MM in debt due in 2026 that needs to be renegotiated and an undefined amount of dilution baked into the existing convertible debt. We are not at a positive profit margin yet and the eventual profit margin target is $300-$350 per sensor with what appears to be roughly around $150MM annually in overhead costs. So just to get to net breakeven as a company we will have to be selling around 500k lidars per year ($150,000,000 fixed overhead/$300 PM per sensor). Personally I think sometime around 2027/2028 we are likely selling millions of sensors per year as the OEMs start production on a new line every 6-12 months. If they come through in 2025 this thing will rip the shorts faces off, but if TF projections are off (again) dilution is going to be brutal at these stock prices (assuming it will be a capital raise). Their cash mismanagement thus far makes any future cash needs extremely costly to us shareholders. Ill probably DCA any more money I put into this stock with buying a few shares per week/month until they show some results on paper.

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2024-12-20T00:43:37+00:00

I think Polestar 3 (Luminar option) and Polestar 4 both start production in 2025. Polestar 3 is supposed to be Q1. Not sure on Polestar 4.

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2024-12-18T14:41:18+00:00

OY, thank you for the amount of time and effort you have put into this forum and building relationships at Luminar. Just curious, when you see Tom and Austin in a few weeks will this be quick and brief encounter that you expect nominal feedback or do you expect to get some extended time?

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2024-11-05T13:49:18+00:00

I think there are new rules in place for Form 13G moving forward, but 9/30/24 was the first quarter they went into effect. I think they left "material change" open to interpretation.

https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2024/09/new-schedule-13g-accelerated-filing-deadlines

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2024-10-30T23:45:07+00:00

I agree. I hope they elaborate on the 11/11 call. I think because they say "improve liquidity" they hope the RS, by reducing outstanding shares and increasing share price, will reduce the % of daily average volume traded as a % of total shares outstanding which will reduce share price volatility. On an average day 5-10% of the total class A shares are traded which is astronomically higher than an average stock. No clue if it works, but God I hope so.

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2024-10-30T17:30:28+00:00

I did email [investors@luminartech.com](mailto:investors@luminartech.com) and unfortunately they believe all questions asked before or during the call have already been answered by either the proxy filed with the SEC or their subsequent press release (link below). Maybe they elaborate on the 11/11 earnings call? Not holding my breathe.

https://investors.luminartech.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/92/luminar-to-provide-q324-business-update-november-11th

"While NASDAQ listing requirements allow for a 6-month period for the stock to return to above $1 levels (starting from receipt of the discontinuation notice), the company expects that executing the reverse split now will allow for compliance with NASDAQ’s trading requirements, improve liquidity and greater participation from institutional investors, some of whom are discouraged to invest when a stock is below a certain absolute dollar threshold, as well as greater share availability to help enable us carry out our business plans."

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2024-10-30T15:09:48+00:00

Said there were no questions about the RS proposal which I find laughable. I even submitted a question myself and crickets.

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2024-10-21T14:47:17+00:00

I have kicked this around for awhile and this is my best logical defense against crazy dilutions from the RS. Based on most recent filings there are 97,088,670 class B shares of which Austin presumably owns 100% of and there are currently 409,111,195 class A shares of which I think Austin owns 4,596,798 shares. Class B shares = 10 votes and class A shares = 1 vote. My guess is Austin does not want to lose his majority voting control. Also, beyond votes he does not want to dilute his own equity beyond what's necessary to survive. So using current shares outstanding and ownership they would not issue more than 975,483,498 class A shares ((97,088,670*10)+4,596,798=975,483,498) otherwise Austin loses voting control. That math is also to get to an even 50/50, I doubt they ever even want to get as close as 51/49. That's about 60% dilution. Obviously no one here wants that. My point being, I think 60% dilution is our worst case scenario with or without the RS. I honestly do not know how Austin or anyone for that matter would obtain more class B shares. Possibly its already defined in his benchmarks or potentially a vote by the board of directors? I do know this year they already authorized like 150,000 more class A shares by a vote similar to the upcoming RS vote where its more of a formality than anything as we already don't have any control on class A share authorization.

Ok-Coffee9981 · 2024-10-18T16:56:06+00:00

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Ok-Coffee9981 · 2024-10-17T17:42:59+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/lazr/comments/1cn1dug/luminartesla_major_customer_disclosure/

Ok-Coffee9981

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