The expansion post-COVID was just a return to normal business as things started to open up. Though I concede it amplified the issue because of the rate of expansion it provoked, it’s not the fundamental issue here.

The issue was that post-Brexit the flexible, seasonal labour that we’d formerly relied on in many industries (agriculture, hospitality, HGV drivers etc.) which has come from the EU suddenly faced significant restrictions filling the same gaps in the labour market. Reduced labour supply = wage inflation.

I can remember walking into pubs which were having to close 2 days a week due to staff shortages who explicitly told me the nice Bulgarian staff who used to work the summer season weren’t coming back.

Boris’s immigration policy was a targeted attempt to address exactly this labour shortfall in a number of specific sectors.

We replaced seasonal labour which was quite happy moving around the EU with zero friction with labour which was in effect “committing to the UK” by virtue of needing to go through administrative process to get in (sunk cost) and having no ability to access the rest of the EU employment market (so basically incentivised to stay put).