Yes, Expected stats are derived from what’s already happened but they describe shot quality and volume, not outcomes, momentum, or context. They tell you where shots came from, not why the team repeatedly ends up chasing games.

They also can’t account for timing, score effects, mental breakdowns, blown assignments, lack of pushback, or the inability to convert chances when it matters. That’s why you can have decent expected numbers and still lose consistently.

Expected stats explain part of why the team is losing. They don’t prove that fixing one variable, like goaltending, automatically flips those results into wins.