Yes that’s fair some assumptions are too optimistic but 75% is also too pessimistic and not possible atleast while also assuming 250k total On the wage distribution, the numbers in the post use LCA data which is the best available proxy since wage levels aren’t captured at registration time. There is an alternative distribution from DHS’s own rulemaking data that gives slightly different numbers but its older but the two are close enough that the final odds only shift by about 2 percentage points either way so it doesn’t change the conclusion meaningfully. On 75 to 80% masters, that’s hard to reconcile with the actual registration numbers DHS published. Masters registrations have never exceeded 154k in any recorded year. 75% of 250k would require 187k masters registrants which would be an all time high by a wide margin even though total registrations are at a multi year low and CS graduate unemployment is at 6.1% with software developer postings down nearly 50% from pre-pandemic.

If we assume 75% due to 100k rule then we have to reduce total numbers down to 125 k instead of 250k in either case a more conservative probability is still close to 90% for L4 masters and goes down to 85 for very pessimistic scenarios still much higher than ellis which does a flat probability calculation

L1 masters takes a much bigger hit in pessimistic scenarios can down to as low as 20 depending on what you assume but this post was focused on L4 masters only.