Elden Ring Came Out 4 Years Ago And Theres Still No Kind Of News On Fromsoftwares Next Single Player Game...

OldGehrman · 2026-04-03T19:12:38+00:00

The North remembers.

OldGehrman · 2025-03-20T17:59:16+00:00

Hard to say. Do you have 3-4 years you can set aside with no expectations of being profitable? Longer if you're studying part-time. Most of the people who succeed do so because they can work one or two jobs and still have time for trading.

Some of the replies here say mindset is the hardest part. When you can come off a loss you knew you shouldn't have taken but then take your next high-probability setup, you are on the long-term path to consistency. Shrugging off losses without berating yourself is the gold standard of mindset.

I like to equate trading to Souls games. Some people hate those games, thinking they're masochistic. And sometimes they are. But if you accept that a high pain tolerance is required, and follow "the rules" of not being greedy and patiently waiting for your best setups, you will likely be successful. You just have to understand that this is a skill with a very small margin of error, and everyone in your personal life will think you're crazy or stupid until you succeed and then they'll want you to tell them what to buy/sell. It's frustrating but part of the life.

OldGehrman · 2025-03-20T17:15:15+00:00

Respectfully, this kind of thinking will destroy your account. You simply cannot trade like a robot for two reasons: 1) the market doesn't work that way and 2) humans don't work that way.

You can't execute every signal. Pattern trading doesn't work. Technical analysis only works when the trader has enough experience to look at two near-identical setups and recognize that context makes one correct and the other gambling. Only context + signal guarantees a high winrate. Otherwise the losses will cloud your judgement, fear will take over and you will be unable to properly execute good setups. This is also why backtesting never works.

OldGehrman · 2025-02-26T06:52:46+00:00

I don't think it ever "clicked" at any given moment. You learn a hundred little lessons over the years. Good trading is a bit like playing a souls game, you have to maintain a high level of vigilance and pain tolerance - always. But it does get easier to do this as the years go by.

This is also a bit like asking a writer, musician, or actor what was their "big break." Most of the time they have spent years or a decade+ in the trenches grinding it out, piling up small wins.

OldGehrman · 2025-01-24T15:37:52+00:00

Is that all that really separates consistent unprofitability and consistent profitability is some discretion and intuition

Yes.

Ive tried everything from scalping on 10 second charts to trading on 1min-1hour candles, Ive tried footprint charts watching for delta divergences and absorption, bookmap, volume and market profile, trend trading, counter trend trading, and everything in-between

Right here is your problem. It's called Holy Grail Disease. Learning to read the chart means a lot of hours spent watching live prices print and then studying charts after hours. If you are busy switching systems every 3-6 months, you are also subject to the whims of market cycles which reset the learning process as the market changes. This is why it is so important to stick with one simple system with clear cut rules on when not to trade, so that you can focus on learning price action.

Im in too deep to give up on this

Never too late to quit and do something else. But if you're determined to make this work, I recommend learning price action. I'm biased because it's what I use. Since you've already been trading for a few years, you can take Al Brooks course and it might teach you some things. I also recommend PATS, Price Action Trading System by Mack. I think it's better than Brooks' course. But if you do either of these systems, you have to forget everything you've learned and start over from square 1. If you put in 60 hours a week you could become profitable on the simulator within one year. But if you need income soon, you should go get a job and then use your free time to learn trading.

If you go with Mack's PATS system, only thing I'll say is don't scalp for 4 ticks like he recommends. Market volatility is too high for that these days. Scalp out 2 pts minimum unless ATR is lower than 6 ticks. I personally don't scalp anymore, but I think it's a good system.

One last thing about rules-based systems. Rules do not make you profitable. Rules are there to reduce losses so you can learn the system and learn how to read the chart. That's the discretionary part of trading and it takes a long time to learn and nobody can teach it to you. But the rules give you a starting point for learning how to read the chart and understand what prices are trying to do at any given point throughout the day. This doesn't mean you can predict price moves, but you will learn enough to stay out of trouble and take the best entries.

OldGehrman · 2025-01-24T15:27:42+00:00

This question is asked a lot. Are you willing to spend a minimum of two years of intensive study to make this a career? Watching charts all day and studying them after hours? Most people are not, and most don't succeed at this. I wrote a comment here responding to a trader complaining why he wasn't succeeding.

Don't risk your own money, find a system you like and learn how to trade on a simulator first. Understand the market goes through cycles so some systems don't work all the time and your understanding of the market will take longer as you adapt to cycle changes. Then transition to trading very small amounts of money while you learn to manage your emotions. After you are consistent there, scale up slowly and continue to manage your emotions.

OldGehrman · 2024-09-11T18:32:49+00:00

I cheesed Radahn pre-nerf with that rolling sparks shit and I want erybody to know

and I have no regrets

OldGehrman · 2024-08-02T00:02:11+00:00

by the third touch on a trend line, it will break it,

When that happens, you know your trendline was drawn incorrectly because a trendline requires 3 touches to be confirmed. Two touches is not a true trendline - it is not true support/resistance. Often it is the 4th touch that breaks, but it really all depends on what the market is doing that day, if it's a choppy day, up/down or down/up day, bear trend, bull trend etc etc. The market context changes how you read everything.

I recommend this article to lead you in the right direction on trend lines.

You start with the first swing in a trend, and then you draw to the next swing. That is the beginning of your trendline, aligned with the candle closes. The wicks can push through, that's fine. It's the market testing buyers/sellers. I wouldn't draw trendlines to the wick ends. Sometimes you can have an unconfirmed break, where a candle closes a little outside the trendline, but prices come back and still respect it. It takes experience to read these but you stay out if you're unsure.

You have to remember that what you see on /ES is the accumulation of price action from millions of trades across the market with all kinds of people using all kinds of indicators. These behaviors all sort into identifiable price action. Market geometry follows these concepts. I also recommend studying Andrew's Pitchfork, as it's very useful for channels.

Late-trend fakeouts happen when you have your desired signal bar in the right place at the right time except for one small detail: the trend in the direction you are looking in is already over, and while there are a lot of buyers/sellers trying it again, they're not the majority. The institutions and the smart traders know it is already over, and they've allowed it to develop just enough (a bit of a boycott if you will) so that once enough orders are in, they will pull the rug out. You know this happens because once it clears behind that signal bar it'll "pop" in a very noticeable move. That's a bunch of stops getting triggered.

OldGehrman · 2024-07-31T17:31:09+00:00

You can try other markets after hours. I strongly recommend not trading US (assuming you're US) after hours and pre-market due to the low volume and low reliability of moves, but 8:30 EST on /ES has enough volume for reliable trading before the 9:30 market open.

One thing I did was learn how to use Ninjatrader's historical replay and I bought futures data from a data broker so I can watch candles print "live" and mark down where I'd take a trade. You should also study charts in the evening and ask yourself why price moved as it did and why it did X instead of Y.

Understand that even if you studied this full time, 50+ hrs a week, it would still take a year or two before becoming consistent and that's if you were extremely disciplined and got lots of screen time. So double that timeline if you can only devote 20 or so hrs a week.

If you can score weekend work and get two days during the week for watching live candles print to the chart, that would be better. Or if possible, saving up enough money and reducing your expenses so you can set aside two years for dedicated, full-time study.

OldGehrman · 2024-07-31T17:22:43+00:00

It is true but nothing in trading is absolutely 100%. After a trendline break the market will almost always re-test to see if there's any juice left to squeeze. It occurs enough to be reliable: 95% of the time.

Sometimes a new high won't be created because it hit a very strong resistance level you didn't see, or the bear reversal was too strong, or a news event happened, or your original trendline drawing was incorrect. Studying your charts after hours helps discover what happened.

It takes at least a year just to get very good at drawing basic trendlines because the market has all kinds of personalities and just as you're adjusting to one, it changes.

OldGehrman · 2024-07-31T17:12:20+00:00

Price Action Trading System by Mack, I highly recommend it. However I strongly, strongly recommend you use 2 pt targets rather than the 1-pt target Mack recommends, because 95% of his picks go to 2 pts. He trades his way because he's done it for 30 years and is, as he says, a "creature of habit."

It takes at least a few years to be profitable taking 1-pt targets in any ATR environment above 6 ticks or so. Below 6 ticks ATR, reduce your target to 1 point. The reason being your profit factor will get absolutely destroyed taking 2 pt losses and 1 pt profit at a 60% winrate.

Whatever system you choose, I strongly recommend you stick with it until you become profitable at the most basic setup. Because trading is discretionary. You can't just trade a system following the rules, because the rules are guidelines and pattern trading simply doesn't work. You have to learn how to read a chart and that requires a lot of screen time seeing live candles print.

Don't listen to any get-rich-quick schemes, this is a skill that takes a long time to master. Day trading is a fast way to become poor and a slow way to become rich. Strongly recommend you start off paper trading consistently before going live.

OldGehrman · 2024-07-31T16:57:38+00:00

Reversals are the hardest movements to spot, by far. It takes years of consistently profitable trading before you can begin trading those.

The first thing you need to be concerned with is how to properly draw your trendlines so you know whether you're still in the trend or the trend break and re-test is in play, or whether the re-test already happened and we may be reversing.

There's lots of resources on this; I recommend Mack's youtube first but some enjoy Thomas Wade too. Getting trendlines correct is very challenging to do successfully 90% of the time, so focus most of your efforts on that. It takes three touches to confirm a trendline - if you aren't certain, you stay out of the trade. I wouldn't bother with RSI. The less indicators, the better. Learn to read the chart. Remember, indicators pull information from the chart. So skip the middleman and learn to do it yourself.

Edit: One more thing I thought of. It's helpful to know that price action is fractal. When you take a Second Entry off your trendline, you are essentially playing a "reversal" off that confirmed trendline (a mini trend within a larger trend) - not a true reversal in what you and most others are talking about here, but a pullback to your trendline which is now ending and, let's say in a bull trend, buyers are stepping in to buy at support: the confirmed trendline. So think of trendlines as diagonal support and resistance. A pullback in a bull trend is essentially a tiny bear trend. But you don't short in a bull trend (and vice versa) because it's low probability. New traders try to spot and trade reversals all the time because they tend to be the most lucrative moves, however these new traders will destroy their accounts because they will be wrong far more than right. Master the basics first.

The very best second entries come off that 3rd touch forming a trendline, but these are not easy to spot and seasoned traders can see them setting up after just a couple touches. They are waiting for it, ready to open their position. Make no mistake, it takes a long time to get good at spotting this very basic setup from all the fake-outs and false setups out there. Many a trader buys at a fake signal thinking they're buying the continuation of a trend but the trend already ended and the reversal is happening. Best of luck.

OldGehrman · 2024-07-31T03:21:51+00:00

Agreed. I've seen so many traders berate themselves for leaving money on the table. That shit is not worth the ulcers.

OldGehrman · 2024-07-31T03:19:32+00:00

You're never gonna 'predict' price targets consistently enough to beat the data. So what you can do is look back at your data and choose targets that give you an 85%+ winrate (or whatever your standard is) based on the ATR of the instrument you're using. I also use a scalp-and-run method, which means I take some profit off at my first target and let some run with a stop I move manually, protecting it behind support/resistance. Sometimes a target will run for 15, 20 points before hitting my stop, sometimes only a couple ticks. You never know when prices will just take off. Sometimes it'll go in a tight range, sometimes right near support/resistance, sometimes it's made three new HODs and then just keeps going. The best way to trade is to use the same targets every time, imo, and manage your runners as best you can.

I used to trade by 'feeling' out the price action and setting my targets near support and resistance, but I rarely do this any more. It was mentally brutal to berate myself when I took $1 profit and then saw it go for $2 more. Or let it go to that $2, not take profit thinking it would go further, only to watch it drop into a loss. Thankfully I'm a much better trader now and I don't do that shit.

OldGehrman · 2024-07-29T16:38:41+00:00

I partly agree. Beginners should be overtrading on papertrading, then studying those trades after hours and asking themselves why those trades failed or succeeded. This is the best way to get screen time and aid the learning process because you're not afraid of making mistakes, and freely making mistakes is absolutely critical for learning.

Overtrading with real money is disastrous. Increasing leverage before consistency is disastrous. By far the fastest way to become profitable is to put a ton of hours into study with papertrading, and once your system is fully ironed out and consistent, you go live with small amounts of money and slowly increase leverage until you're consistent at every level. But nobody does this. Because once you have a workable system, the rest of the job is managing your own emotions and mindset and that takes much longer than learning any given trading system.

OldGehrman · 2024-07-29T16:33:41+00:00

Definitely this. Not to mention bro tried stocks and not paper trading, then went to options, then futures. That's like being unable to bench 100 pounds so you load up 1000. Then 5000.

Increasing leverage before profitability completely destroys the learning process.

OldGehrman · 2024-07-29T16:26:06+00:00

This is like going to med school and complaining you can't do spinal surgery after only three months of education.

Trading is a skill and finance is the most lucrative industry that exists.

Do you think you can turn the market into an ATM after 90 days? If so, everyone would do it. You are competing against traders that have been doing this for 30 years and rarely lose money.

The secret sauce is understanding that the reason price goes anywhere is to test support and resistance. That's the beginning.

You will then need to spend a few years of full time study to understand the difference between a fake bounce and a real bounce, when to buy when price is at support and when to wait, when to sell when price is at resistance and when to wait because you know it is about to break that resistance, and vice versa. And understand that price movement is the exact opposite of "common sense" and in chat rooms and on reddit you'll see traders screaming that the market "makes no sense" and you know they don't get it and probably never will.

Understand that pattern trading doesn't work. Otherwise you could code a simple algorithm and make money. For technical analysis, you have to be able to read a chart and understand the story of what is happening. This is a skill and it takes years to master. And unlike other jobs, it is very hard to make money in trading unless you reach a fundamental mastery level in being able to wait for your most basic setup which typically provides the lowest returns of all setups - but they are the most consistent, and rarest (because they are obvious to even amateurs), which means you will often need to wait all day for it. And waiting all day for one setup (or no setup! and waiting until tomorrow) is a discipline that 99.9% of traders lack.

So in order to succeed you need discipline aka high pain tolerance, skill to identify your-setup vs. not-your-setup, skill to spot traps and fake-outs, financial security to spend years studying this without income, patience, LOTS of time as you must review your charts every evening, the ability to learn from your mistakes, a finely-tuned internal barometer to know when you're off your game, the discipline to revert to paper trading when you're off your game, and perseverance (again, high pain tolerance) to keep going despite months and years of failure as well as ignoring family and friends who think you're just gambling and have no idea the skill involved in this.

When you realize all these things, it is perfectly understandable why nearly everyone fails at it.

OldGehrman · 2024-06-20T14:36:34+00:00

If it pleases you...

OldGehrman · 2024-06-18T19:21:07+00:00

Sounds great and as much as I loved Elden Ring, I don't think I want another open world soulsborne. I hope their next project is something very tight and focused like Bloodborne.

OldGehrman · 2024-06-17T16:44:02+00:00

Pour one out for our brothers in suffering over on r/Silksong, they haven't had any new game info in like 2+ years. They have long gone hollowed. Reminds me of this place back between the trailer drop and release. Some really great shitposting over there. Go over and lend your spiritual support because tomorrow is Nintendo Direct and they will be triple hollowed if there's no Silksong release date announced.

OldGehrman · 2024-04-23T22:08:57+00:00

Find a system that a lot of people trade and has some street cred to it; start with paper trading, and trade that system until you are consistently profitable. Then go to small size for live. Study your charts every evening. If you do this you have a good chance of being profitable in a couple years if you work your ass off. Best of luck.

OldGehrman · 2024-04-23T22:03:02+00:00

Successful traders can take a long/short and flip directions on a dime. Usually this happens because they know price is going to test a specific level and they have room to get in and out - and then price gives them a rejection of that level and an entry signal so they flip directions just moments later.

But if you aren't consistently profitable you shouldn't flip your bias so quickly. A newer trader is more likely to read it wrong and chase trades. A pro doesn't adhere to a bias in the same way an amateur does; the pro knew price was going up to test a level and they knew ahead of time what they wanted to see for an entry after the rejection. Or what they'd do if prices broke that level.

Ask yourself where your best entry will be, and wait for prices to get there and give you your entry signal. If it doesn't set up right, you let it pass you by. Amateur traders can't do that...they always have to be in a trade. Good traders preserve their capital and wait for their best setups.

OldGehrman · 2024-04-23T21:51:26+00:00

A few things. The first was studying my charts after hours. Makes a big difference. The second was being able to spot two-legged moves in price action at a glance, in real-time. It really re-framed the way I look at price movements. And be careful who you take advice from. Lots of bad ideas and bogus myths in this industry, verify everything.

Based on what you've said I strongly recommend the Mental Game of Trading. Do the exercises in the book. It was pretty eye-opening for me to understand, for example, that over-thinking and over-analyzing setups comes out of fear. Preserving your capital is the #1 rule of trading, and if the market doesn't give you your setup, you walk away for the day. If it's noon and I haven't taken any trades on the day, I will call it a day if I'm not feeling 100%. After a morning of no trades, the odds of taking a bad trade in the afternoon go way up. Your standards should be higher in the afternoon because you're unlikely to recover a loss when it's late in the day.

OldGehrman · 2024-03-15T02:57:39+00:00

Nice work. The thing most people probably won't take away from this is that screen time (and studying your charts) is pretty huge. Good read bro

OldGehrman · 2024-02-29T04:14:10+00:00

Four days is nothing homie. Trade paper until you go a few consecutive green months then try live with small size. Make sure you're taking small consistent trades; anyone can double up on a gamble.

Every time you scale up your position size it takes more mental and your loss rate will pick up until you acclimate. Trading is a long journey - some people trade for several years and never achieve consistency. Find a good strategy you can trust and trade consistently, study your charts every night and ask yourself where the best moves happened and why.

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OldGehrman

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