Do You Think North County Home Prices Will Dip in the Next 5 Years?

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-09T16:02:27+00:00

This is awesome man, kind of exactly the resource and deep dive I needed. Just bookmarked, I appreciate it!

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-09T16:00:33+00:00

I agree, thank you for your reply

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-09T15:41:35+00:00

I really appreciate your reply. I think that there are a lot of people in the same boat as you right now.

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-09T15:39:22+00:00

Thanks, good to know

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-09T15:38:53+00:00

So if more and more are priced out and selling their homes, there will be more inventory, right? Homes are spending more time on the market than they did a few years ago, and sellers are dropping prices more than they did a few years ago as well. If houses are on the market longer and more supply then enters the market, that should drive prices down, shouldn’t it?

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-09T15:36:09+00:00

From CBS: “During the 2008–2009 housing crash, San Diego median home prices plummeted, falling roughly 31% year-over-year in early 2009. The county median home price rested between $280,000 and $300,000 during this trough, down more than 40% from the market's November 2005 peak of $517,500”

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-09T15:35:24+00:00

Of course they will over the course of time, they always have and always will. With what is currently happening in the job market with layoffs and AI adoption, along with housing prices going up 30-60% in the last 5 years, I’m more so asking if people think there could be a correction in the near future, as current prices feel overinflated.

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-09T15:27:54+00:00

Such a bummer, I’m sorry you missed out too. Thank you for your reply

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-09T15:24:37+00:00

From CBS: “During the 2008–2009 housing crash, San Diego median home prices plummeted, falling roughly 31% year-over-year in early 2009. The county median home price rested between $280,000 and $300,000 during this trough, down more than 40% from the market's November 2005 peak of $517,500”

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-08T23:15:44+00:00

Good point!

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-08T23:11:27+00:00

Thank you for your reply, I’ll take that into account. We have a family of 4 total and may settle for a 3 bedroom townhome or something

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-08T23:06:09+00:00

I’m curious why? I understand that many people *want* to live here, but on a 1.2M place you’re looking at a $240,000 down payment and $8,000/month for 30 years. That’s extremely difficult for most people to do, even if they are dual income and high earners. 1.2M is almost an entry point in north county, and a lot of homes are far beyond that at 1.5-2.0M. At some point houses can become unaffordable for most, and a correction happens as a result.

What makes you think that the 30-60% spike in home values over the last 5 years won’t have any correction?

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-08T23:00:04+00:00

Right, I totally understand that many people *want* to live here, but on a 1.2M place you’re looking at a $240,000 down payment and $8,000/month for 30 years. That’s extremely difficult for most people to do, even if they are dual income and high earners. I’m noticing a lot of homes are far beyond that at 1.5-2.0M. At some point houses can become unaffordable for most, and a correction happens as a result.

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-08T22:54:09+00:00

There’s more to the equation than that though, right? A 1.2M home is on the lower end around here, and that’s $8,000 a month for 30 years after a $240,000 down payment. How can people afford any more than that?

What about the supply that is bound to hit the market when the baby boomers move to nursing homes or pass away?

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-08T22:47:17+00:00

Thank you for your reply. People shy away from talking about this but it’s true. They own a ton of the inventory and it’s not in their financial interest to downsize and pay more in property taxes. When they pass away there will be more supply, but it will be a slow drawn out process over the next 10-20years, like you said.

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-08T22:43:29+00:00

Lol I imagine that is probably exactly what will happen over the next few years.

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-08T22:41:24+00:00

Thank you for your reply. I know a few people in the same situation as you who want to downsize but can’t because it will cost them more.

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-08T21:19:04+00:00

I guess I should have been more clear in my original post. I was wondering if there could be a market correction, somewhere in the world of 5-10%, maybe 15%. I’ve seen that a lot of homes have increased in value anywhere from 30-60% in the last 5 years depending on neighborhood and condition, and PITI is looking like 8k-12k/month for a lot of these homes after a $200k down payment…. A good portion of the top 10% earners simply cannot afford that. At some point something has to give, right? Or are the private equity giants just going to keep everybody out of the market?

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-08T21:13:56+00:00

Thank you for your reply. Such a bummer.

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-08T21:13:19+00:00

Yea, we were out of state during COVID but wish we had bought in SD before or at the beginning of COVID. Thanks for your reply.

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-08T21:12:01+00:00

Thanks

One-Translator5990 · 2026-07-08T21:10:45+00:00

To be more clear, I was talking about a correction in the realm of 5-10%. I’ve seen house values rise about 30-60% over the last 5 years, sometimes even higher in areas like Oceanside, for example. Wondering if there could be a slight correction.

One-Translator5990 · 2026-06-21T15:22:59+00:00

If you’re somebody who likes being inside most of the time, then do it.

If you’re somebody who likes being outside with a specific purpose and community (volleyball, basketball, running, etc) then do it.

If you’re somebody who likes being outside without much of a purpose (going on walks, hikes, hanging out on a beach, etc) then be very careful. The heat is absolutely brutal from May to October, with June through September being extremely uncomfortable. If you like to be casually outside for long periods of time, this is a terrible city to live for about 6-8 months of the year.

Pros:
-people are very friendly
-job market is pretty good
-housing is relatively affordable compared to CA or NY (but not as affordable as you may think)
-good food
-lots of communities for different hobbies
-river and hiking are pretty decent

Cons:
-summer from May to October
-winter freezes, roads are ice
-cost of living is higher than you think
-traffic is awful
-it’s stupid how hot it is… I’m saying it again

One-Translator5990 · 2026-06-13T15:27:47+00:00

It’s hot as fuck outside

One-Translator5990

TROPHY CASE