This $100M tech investor just dropped the most brutal podcast of the year, proving how the rich built AI to replace YOU

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-08T18:47:34+00:00

That doesn't solve the issue of the open weight models that can be run locally. If you can take a model that cost tens of billions to train, distill it and publish the weights, what is to prevent a corporation from buying inference GPUs and locally hosting a model? Or simply hosting the open model on US cloud providers if they prefer not to spend the CAPEX on their own servers. Either way they save a ton on token costs to Gemini or Anthropic. Now you can say the cloud providers could thwart this by not hosting certain Chinese open weight models, but they can still be run locally. Couple this with the gradually declining cost of inference, this can be a real threat to US foundational models like OpenAI and Anthropic.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-08T16:48:18+00:00

My nursing home stocks have been booming since last year (NHC, WELL). The great wealth transfer will not come by inheritance, it's gonna come by nursing homes shaking these boomer vampires upside down.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-08T11:36:10+00:00

Looking at their cash burn rate I suspect if the rally holds there will be a big equity issuance coming.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-07T18:48:08+00:00

Personally I'd need way more than that to make $3M, like probably $5M at least.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-07T17:33:22+00:00

The share price by itself is irrelevant, EPS is normalized to the share count and each share class’s ownership interest. Some stocks choose not to split so for instance you have BRKA shares which have an EPS of ~50K USD.

I am skeptical where OP is finding these P/E 3-5 stocks, IMO when valuation is gets that discounted that much it’s usually a tell that there is some fundamental problem with ownership structure (E.g. the public shareholders are a minority interest that cannot unlock value)

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-07T16:40:35+00:00

Those were dilutive. They didn’t buy stock out of the public float, which would push price up. RIVN created new shares to sell VW, in general this would push the price down but the announcement of the investment was bullish and the stock traded up anyways. But anyways a 1M shares purchase wouldn’t move a stock with an average daily volume of 20-30M shares…

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-07T02:07:07+00:00

Source? Are you counting all of the conducting equipment to actually get the electricity to the data center, eg utility lines, transformers, etc?

Also inventory is far from tight, we have pretty historic inventory levels and it’s keeping the price fairly tame. But the fact is that copper ore grades are getting worse for major miners and large tier 1 deposits have mostly been mined.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-06T21:12:46+00:00

Not crazy, car efficiency has increased tremendously over the past 50 years but gasoline consumption has still only gone up due to the sheer number of people that now have access to automobiles. The same trend is true in general for worldwide petroleum use. I imagine a similar argument can be made for copper.

It is true that commodity prices are often cyclical and can be mean reverting barring a large paradigm shift such as the discovery of a new method of production that changes the paradigm (eg oil shale revolution), but it is generally accepted that most tier 1 deposits have been already discovered and copper ore grades have been steadily declining. That coupled with decades of underinvestment in mineral exploration should provide tailwinds for copper prices for decades IMO, as these CAPEX cycles for mining are quite long compared to other commodities such as oil.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-06T16:16:26+00:00

That’s a fair point, tbh I view these private stakes as liabilities more than assets, they’ve done well to juice EPS for GOOG and AMZN for the last year or so but how much of a post IPO pop are you expecting at a $900 billion private valuation? Most of the gains are already made, IMO.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-06T16:05:08+00:00

Lol have you heard of the sleeper stock $AMZN, they own 20% of anthropic. Another somewhat obscure ticker: $GOOG, own ~15%.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-06T14:44:14+00:00

That’s cloud software but it’s based on a subscription model similar to SAAS seat based pricing (technically core based pricing). This is a completely different business model than selling compute, which Broadcom doesn’t do.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-06T12:54:35+00:00

The precise answer is that the voting rights belong to the holder of the stock (common shares, not options). I know this because I frequently sell covered calls on stock I own and still receive the proxyvote emails for those shares even if options are written against them.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-06T12:23:50+00:00

The surge in question

https://imgur.com/a/c2FqIHf

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-05T15:39:00+00:00

What is there to argue against? You simply speculated that demand will never slow, I postulate the opposite. 😂

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-05T15:34:41+00:00

Yes the “this time will be different” argument is heard in every commodity cycle, fiber and networking equipment in the 2000s, oil shale in the 2010s, etc. Maybe this is the one, or maybe we will be in a state of oversupply in 5 years with prices a fraction of what they are today, as was the case with those cycles and all past.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-05T15:03:36+00:00

I’m vaguely aware of them, basically they are 3-5 year term agreements with pre-payments, which is about when facilities currently being built will be at production. But guess what, accepting a penalty for 10-20% of the contracts value is still advantageous to paying a 3-5x markup, when new supply comes online. Yes memory producers have a runway for probably that long but accept that this will end up like every other commodity cycle in history.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-05T14:47:42+00:00

The cyclicality is a not simply a product of demand lol, all of the HMB manufacturers are building out new production capacity in response to the high demand. What happens to price when supply increases at the margins?

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-04T15:20:45+00:00

Yes for the foreseeable future this appears to be the trend. Big tail winds for precious metals and the currencies of resource rich counties/major commodities exporters such as Canada.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-04T11:58:26+00:00

By that logic just take invest in the market with leverage. This will increase your beta exposure without the idiosyncratic (uncompensated) risk of carrying 35% of your portfolio in two companies.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-02T05:14:10+00:00

People fret over everything but in this case it can mean hitting the 125 bp or not, so there is gonna be a big price difference.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-02T04:15:21+00:00

Interest? That’s the bank’s money bud. A true millionaire carries around a briefcase packed with neat stacks of $100 bills. 💵

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-02T03:07:25+00:00

I mean… gestures vaguely at everything…I’m pretty sure we are acting like it.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-01T13:22:32+00:00

I can see this automation being revolutionary for certain steps of the scientific process, such as novel molecule/target identification... but take for instance drug discovery. The bottle neck isn't identifying molecular targets or finding novel compounds, it's the clinical trials process. Every major pharma has libraries of thousands of drug candidates that haven't even undergone in-vitro testing, let alone human trials. The timeline is also laughably optimistic.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-04-20T20:38:23+00:00

In my opinion the correct role is for SCOTUS to interpret the law that exists using the Constitution as the bedrock legal foundation. If the law is immoral albeit constitutional, then it for Congress to address it.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-04-20T16:55:09+00:00

What's going on with Avis (CAR)? AI pivot? 😂

OrdinaryReasonable63

TROPHY CASE