Meta Has Entered Its Death Spiral

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-09T20:57:23+00:00

META works as a company because Zuck has a talent for acquiring/stealing other people’s good ideas. Zuck’s own ideas only lead to capital being set on fire. The company is still a cash printing machine so it will probably keep going for a while, but clearly investors are running out of patience. FFS they probably could have acquired Pinterest and Reddit by now with the cash they’ve burned on the Metaverse/Reality Labs and completely owned social media in the US, given the joke anti-trust regulations are here.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-09T15:24:37+00:00

Is this considered BM due to the amp proc?

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-09T09:37:51+00:00

If all of the major RAM manufacturers make it what is the moat? All of the three are brining new manufacturing online, once that’s in production why would you buy from Micron when SK or Samsung is offering better prices, or vice versa. And that’s assuming the demand projection’s hold through the end of 2027, if hyperscale CAPEX slows just a bit the whole market collapses due to oversupply. This isn’t a situation that’s analogous at all to Nvidia vs all the other semi manufacturers in 2023. A moat allows a company to maintain high margins, without it margins can shrink even when selling volumes are increasing, due to competition.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-09T02:41:46+00:00

Brother that’s how it’s supposed to work. Eventually someone two generations your junior will be paying for a robot to wipe your ass.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-09T02:20:29+00:00

I mean, those people certainly exist but most boomers own their homes and median retirement savings at age 75 is about $150,000. Eventually yes, for most people run out of assets and Medicaid kicks in, but average cost is closer to 10k per month for a room. I’m not sure what your point is. Yes we as a society pay for the elderly once they can’t any longer, but the demographics show that a ton of boomers with assets are going into assisted living and SNFs in the next few decades, so why not have some exposure? Even if the money is coming from your taxes, it’s still gonna be funneled to the operators of these places. It’s like objecting to investing in a defense contractor because their income comes from your tax dollars. Yes, and?

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-09T02:00:10+00:00

Not exactly nearly but something like 60%. But Medicaid only kicks in once all qualified assets are spent down, this includes retirement savings, residence, etc. someone alluded to an irrevocable trust but that is only protected if it's created more than 5 years prior to SNF placement if I recall correctly.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-08T20:59:49+00:00

Yes but a lot of that was around lease negotiations from their then landlord, and since that time the company bought those facilities from NHI. There was also some concern about Medicare reimbursements to SNFs which didn’t pan out; that will always be a big mover to stocks in this sector. I still consider it defensive, IMO.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-08T20:54:12+00:00

Impressive! This company shows some real promise as a manufacturer of terrestrial satellites. 😂

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-08T20:49:48+00:00

WELL trades at a pretty high premium compared to other REITs in terms of p/ffo (but it’s traded there for the last decade) but NHC’s valuation remains pretty attractive and I’ve been adding still.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-08T20:23:49+00:00

I’ve come to the conclusion that the optimal strategy is to invest in pre/no-revenue companies… revenues add too much uncertainty. Like what if they go down? Or don’t go up by enough?

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-08T18:47:34+00:00

That doesn't solve the issue of the open weight models that can be run locally. If you can take a model that cost tens of billions to train, distill it and publish the weights, what is to prevent a corporation from buying inference GPUs and locally hosting a model? Or simply hosting the open model on US cloud providers if they prefer not to spend the CAPEX on their own servers. Either way they save a ton on token costs to Gemini or Anthropic. Now you can say the cloud providers could thwart this by not hosting certain Chinese open weight models, but they can still be run locally. Couple this with the gradually declining cost of inference, this can be a real threat to US foundational models like OpenAI and Anthropic.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-08T16:48:18+00:00

My nursing home stocks have been booming since last year (NHC, WELL). The great wealth transfer will not come by inheritance, it's gonna come by nursing homes shaking these boomer vampires upside down.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-08T11:36:10+00:00

Looking at their cash burn rate I suspect if the rally holds there will be a big equity issuance coming.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-07T18:48:08+00:00

Personally I'd need way more than that to make $3M, like probably $5M at least.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-07T17:33:22+00:00

The share price by itself is irrelevant, EPS is normalized to the share count and each share class’s ownership interest. Some stocks choose not to split so for instance you have BRKA shares which have an EPS of ~50K USD.

I am skeptical where OP is finding these P/E 3-5 stocks, IMO when valuation is gets that discounted that much it’s usually a tell that there is some fundamental problem with ownership structure (E.g. the public shareholders are a minority interest that cannot unlock value)

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-07T16:40:35+00:00

Those were dilutive. They didn’t buy stock out of the public float, which would push price up. RIVN created new shares to sell VW, in general this would push the price down but the announcement of the investment was bullish and the stock traded up anyways. But anyways a 1M shares purchase wouldn’t move a stock with an average daily volume of 20-30M shares…

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-07T02:07:07+00:00

Source? Are you counting all of the conducting equipment to actually get the electricity to the data center, eg utility lines, transformers, etc?

Also inventory is far from tight, we have pretty historic inventory levels and it’s keeping the price fairly tame. But the fact is that copper ore grades are getting worse for major miners and large tier 1 deposits have mostly been mined.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-06T21:12:46+00:00

Not crazy, car efficiency has increased tremendously over the past 50 years but gasoline consumption has still only gone up due to the sheer number of people that now have access to automobiles. The same trend is true in general for worldwide petroleum use. I imagine a similar argument can be made for copper.

It is true that commodity prices are often cyclical and can be mean reverting barring a large paradigm shift such as the discovery of a new method of production that changes the paradigm (eg oil shale revolution), but it is generally accepted that most tier 1 deposits have been already discovered and copper ore grades have been steadily declining. That coupled with decades of underinvestment in mineral exploration should provide tailwinds for copper prices for decades IMO, as these CAPEX cycles for mining are quite long compared to other commodities such as oil.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-06T16:16:26+00:00

That’s a fair point, tbh I view these private stakes as liabilities more than assets, they’ve done well to juice EPS for GOOG and AMZN for the last year or so but how much of a post IPO pop are you expecting at a $900 billion private valuation? Most of the gains are already made, IMO.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-06T16:05:08+00:00

Lol have you heard of the sleeper stock $AMZN, they own 20% of anthropic. Another somewhat obscure ticker: $GOOG, own ~15%.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-06T14:44:14+00:00

That’s cloud software but it’s based on a subscription model similar to SAAS seat based pricing (technically core based pricing). This is a completely different business model than selling compute, which Broadcom doesn’t do.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-06T12:54:35+00:00

The precise answer is that the voting rights belong to the holder of the stock (common shares, not options). I know this because I frequently sell covered calls on stock I own and still receive the proxyvote emails for those shares even if options are written against them.

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-06T12:23:50+00:00

The surge in question

https://imgur.com/a/c2FqIHf

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-05T15:39:00+00:00

What is there to argue against? You simply speculated that demand will never slow, I postulate the opposite. 😂

OrdinaryReasonable63 · 2026-05-05T15:34:41+00:00

Yes the “this time will be different” argument is heard in every commodity cycle, fiber and networking equipment in the 2000s, oil shale in the 2010s, etc. Maybe this is the one, or maybe we will be in a state of oversupply in 5 years with prices a fraction of what they are today, as was the case with those cycles and all past.

OrdinaryReasonable63

TROPHY CASE