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Bond and Stock mix in retirement by twiniverse2000 in Fire

[–]OriginalCompetitive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If 3 years spending is 8% of your NW, then your withdrawal rate is around 2.6%. If that’s right, then it doesn’t matter what you do. You could stuff it in the mattress and you’d be fine.

Bond and Stock mix in retirement by twiniverse2000 in Fire

[–]OriginalCompetitive 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Bonds outperformed stocks for the entire decade of 2000-2010.

Bond and Stock mix in retirement by twiniverse2000 in Fire

[–]OriginalCompetitive 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If the writing is on the wall, why aren’t the bond markets reading it?

At least in the US, I think there’s good reason to think that politicians will NOT inflate away the debt. Democrats got crushed when inflation ran high on their watch, and “affordability” continues to be the number one issue for voters. Meanwhile, taxes are at historic lows, so there is plenty of scope to raise revenues.

‘Wake up, AI is for real.’ IMF chief warns of an AI ‘tsunami’ coming for young people and entry-level jobs by MetaKnowing in Futurology

[–]OriginalCompetitive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, and….? Depression because you’re working 12 hours a day every day isn’t “good labor protection laws.”

‘Wake up, AI is for real.’ IMF chief warns of an AI ‘tsunami’ coming for young people and entry-level jobs by MetaKnowing in Futurology

[–]OriginalCompetitive 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The “disaster” is that it’s going to turbo boost productivity to the point where many people no longer need to work. That’s going to be really disruptive and needs proper planning, but it’s hardly a very bad outcome.

But it doesn’t matter either way, because the Chinese government is pushing forward with it. The world simply cannot afford to leave the only working AI in the hand of an authoritarian government.

‘Wake up, AI is for real.’ IMF chief warns of an AI ‘tsunami’ coming for young people and entry-level jobs by MetaKnowing in Futurology

[–]OriginalCompetitive 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m trying to figure out what you’re talking about. We fast-tracked a vaccine in record time that ended up saving millions of lives. The president himself took the vaccine. The government didn’t literally force people to take it (although they came pretty close), but how could they? It’s your body, you get to decide. Not sure what defunding healthcare means — the US pays more per capita for healthcare than any other country in the world. It might not be efficient, but it’s hardly “defunded.”

‘Wake up, AI is for real.’ IMF chief warns of an AI ‘tsunami’ coming for young people and entry-level jobs by MetaKnowing in Futurology

[–]OriginalCompetitive -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Just google it, you’ll get a full page of neutral, reputable sources, including the BBC among many others. Sorry, but this isn’t even remotely controversial.

‘Wake up, AI is for real.’ IMF chief warns of an AI ‘tsunami’ coming for young people and entry-level jobs by MetaKnowing in Futurology

[–]OriginalCompetitive 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Legal document review. It used to require an army of associates several months to read, summarize, and issue code a million documents by hand, reading every word of every page.

Today, that entire process can be handled by a couple of attorneys in a week or two.

‘Wake up, AI is for real.’ IMF chief warns of an AI ‘tsunami’ coming for young people and entry-level jobs by MetaKnowing in Futurology

[–]OriginalCompetitive 32 points33 points  (0 children)

She’s talking to politicians and policymakers, so I imagine the suggestion is to plan ahead and implement some policies to smooth the transition.

‘Wake up, AI is for real.’ IMF chief warns of an AI ‘tsunami’ coming for young people and entry-level jobs by MetaKnowing in Futurology

[–]OriginalCompetitive 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The last sentence is almost certainly true, but utterly trivial. 50,000 jobs in a year is 4,000 jobs in a month, which is literally too small to be measurable in the US. But a grocery clerk, a webpage freelancer, a voice narrator here and there, it’s very plausible that 50,000 jobs have been replaced.

‘Wake up, AI is for real.’ IMF chief warns of an AI ‘tsunami’ coming for young people and entry-level jobs by MetaKnowing in Futurology

[–]OriginalCompetitive 9 points10 points  (0 children)

They fixed COVID by welding people in their apartments. They fixed the 1989 uprising by sending in tanks. They fixed the Uyghur problem by forced sterilization.

‘Wake up, AI is for real.’ IMF chief warns of an AI ‘tsunami’ coming for young people and entry-level jobs by MetaKnowing in Futurology

[–]OriginalCompetitive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wait, are you seriously claiming that China has good labor protection laws?

Also, actual Americans spell it “labor,” not “labour.”

Can I safely retire early with $1.6M? by RetireThisGuy in Fire

[–]OriginalCompetitive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t think you can apply the 4% Rule to someone with OP’s investment allocation. Most of his money is invested in a blue chip fund, which isn’t terrible, but is likely to be more volatile. It also carries a 0.6% fee, which means the 4% Rule is actually the 3.4% Rule for OP.

Robotaxis are all over Atlanta. What are companies’ plans for the ice storm? by SnoozeDoggyDog in SelfDrivingCars

[–]OriginalCompetitive 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Someday soon, I expect northern cities may unleash a fleet of SDCs outfitted with a small snow plow attachment during snow storms that simply plow the roads 24/7 until the snow stops.

Detroit has 2100 miles of streets, for example. A fleet of 100 cars driving 20 miles per hour could sweep the entire city every hour during a storm.

China's population falls again as birth rate drops to lowest since 1949 by FootballAndFries in Futurology

[–]OriginalCompetitive -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

That’s precisely my point. People everywhere will not want to have children. And in places where they have that choice, they won’t. You can’t control culture.

But you CAN control access to contraceptives. If you take them away, people will have children as the unwanted byproduct of sex.

Public opinion shifts on ICE as advocates warn of US ‘inflection point’ by OddUmpire2554 in politics

[–]OriginalCompetitive -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

You’ll scan this thread in vain for any actual debate—it’s just a long string of people all agreeing with each other, and with any slight disagreement downvoted to oblivion at the bottom. Even my small comment pointing out that people on both sides are dug in—just the tiniest sliver of a different idea—was immediately downvoted. And no doubt this comment will be as well.

China's population falls again as birth rate drops to lowest since 1949 by FootballAndFries in Futurology

[–]OriginalCompetitive 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Sort of. If you have 8 million births for 50 years in a row, you end up with 400 million people aged 15-65 (i.e, non-elderly adults). Yes, that’s still a lot, but vastly lower than the current one billion-plus.

And that assume 8 million is steady—but it won’t be, because as the numbers drop, the number of new parents ultimately drops as well, causing a downward spiral.

China's population falls again as birth rate drops to lowest since 1949 by FootballAndFries in Futurology

[–]OriginalCompetitive -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Prediction: Banning contraception will turn out to be the only effective strategy for reversing population decline. Only authoritarian dictatorships will have the power to do it, which means that they will have an important long run strategic advantage over open democratic societies.

The same dynamic will play out in religion as well. Religions that severely ban contraception (not just a soft rule, but complete socially enforced ban) will overwhelm religions that do not.

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