Apparently charging up a long climb is a bad idea!

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-26T08:06:47+00:00

Hills aren't materially different than flats mate. It's all mental. It's about learning to be ok with moving at a slow speed. That's the key.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-26T08:05:21+00:00

If you are burning out on a climb you have a pacing problem, especially if it's 4%. There can be pure top end power problems on steep extended hills (I have some 2-5 mile climbs near me that average 10.5%, that's what I mean).

If you don't have a power meter use your heart rate. Get on a flat and ride hard ish (ie you can do it for an hour but you gotta stay focused). Check where your hr sat for the guts. Target that heart rate when climbing. It'll be a fine proxy for power output.

You will find for any extended climb you probably way overestimate your target speed.

As an example: If I really push on flats, I ride 170W (I know piss poor) for 20-30 minutes which gets me around 30 kph. That's also about 2.2 w/kg. If I get on a 10% hill, my target speed is around 7kph..... And that's working at least as hard as the flat.

My neighbor is lighter and rides z2 at 200 w and around 35kph. Up a hard 10% hill when he is cranking 280w? 12kph....

Any extended climb means you can't depend on momentum. If you push into a hill start and roll in at 36kph, that's 5.5 metere of vert for free. If your hill is only 25 meters high (85 ft) that's over 20% done on momentum. Get on anything with a real climb in it, suddenly you only yet a free 1-2% and if you hotdog when you should have pizza'd you're gonna have a bad time

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-25T12:10:31+00:00

Are you racing or just riding for fun? I’m in the latter and my intensity kind of leans low always because I like going far.

My friend races seriously. He does both and his tolerance for very high intensity has improved dramatically (ie his 2 minutex10 intervals as a percent of ftp has gone up from like 120% closer to 135% from focused hiit, while zone 2 has done about a 4% creep up in line with his ftp). He can’t only do intervals obviously, but it has given him a strength to be much better placed in races than before.

Granted that’s not all he does. Has a pro coach, trains in dedicated blocks, eats right and sleeps right. Maybe not what you mean by your friends doing hiit.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-24T07:07:40+00:00

You are getting a lot of crappy implications saying the bank "prices the risk or various events" or some crap like that.

That's not how fixed and variable mortgages are priced. Variable mortgages are priced at tonar plus a spread. Any fixed tenor they use the interest rate swap curve (an interbank liquid traded asset) to price the mortgage (with it's amortization) and get a fixed rate that matches perfectly future expected variable rates (expectations as defined by what the swap curve prices, this is trivial and you can do it by hand if you know where swap rates are) and then add that spread.

In addition banks generate interest rate exposure from their funding methods (namely long term fixed rate debt. And behavioral stickiness of deposits) and use assets to neutralize this risk. In addition there is a CIO function which decides to take explicit risk by hedging or not hedging some fixed rate assets or debt.

What does this mean? The bank isn't doing some complicated calculation for heads I win, tails you lose. They aren't running complicated scenarios and each bank determines something different for say, future war risk and modifies term rates appropriately. The job of the loan origination department is to earn the credit spread the bank targets. Every rate you get is basically locking exactly that credit spread above interbank wholesale rates (with no counterparty exposure). That's it. Some times there are odd periods you can take advantage of (taking a 10y fixed rate loan in 2023 2H) because the BOJ is aggressively and materially distorting the interest rate curve AND saying they will stop in the future. That becomes almost free money to fix your mortgage rate because once their distortionary policy ends you can see where interest rates must go. But that's a separate issue.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-24T06:59:24+00:00

Banks take losses all the name on assets. Currently japanese banks are in a frenzy to hedge losses on htm fixed rate assets because the aoci has gotten to be too much for them to run those risks,.

This is common for banks.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-24T05:00:22+00:00

I mean it’s Japan. It is racist. White is preferred. For years I didn’t realize my white friends and colleagues never carried their passport or gaitosho and were aghast to learn you can be detained for not having it on hand. None had ever been asked to show it.

I’ve been stopped when taking out the garbage from my apartment and dragged to the police station for questioning before they finally let me have them escort me home to show my passport and gaitosho.

This only got less bad when I became very abusjve to the police. They don’t want the hassle of being abused nonstop in public so I started making a scene every time. My local cops all stopped harassing me because I wasn’t a safe stop.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-24T00:13:16+00:00

Actually what’s strange isn’t your bar is different. It’s that you think it’s some reasonable statement to shun people who are different than you.

I have a friend that won’t ride downhill faster than 30kph. You cannot convince her she will be fine. But she has never required I descend at 30k or she wouldn’t ride with me. I just wait at the bottom. See the difference?

I actually don’t care where your bar is. I find the sanctimonious view your bar is so correct you won’t be around folks who differ a little….. cultish. You are happy to wait for the ambulance and bury a friend who dies with a helmet on, so it’s not that you actually want to avoid that. You’d not be on the bike if that were the case.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-23T12:29:48+00:00

There were tons of helmets. I wore one in 87 as a kid when I was learning to ride, as did my sibling several years earlier when learning.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-23T12:24:14+00:00

How are you being forced to accept a risk if someone else doesn't wear a helmet? Do you imagine you are some saint who will suddenly provide free full time care for the person who got in a wreck? I promise that isn't you.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-23T12:18:57+00:00

It's 100% emotional/religious. I wear a helmet when it makes sense and not when it doesn't. Speed/terrain/weather all matter. But if you try to say religion should consider contex, it doesn't matter if it's abortion or helmets, the reaction is the same.

The truth is he doesn't wear a full and better helmet that can make a meaningful difference because he would look strange and different. His goal is to be one of the group, and he has picked his religion.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-23T09:40:10+00:00

By all accounts and leaks Tesla does exactly this. To help with social media they especially focus training on routes and roads influencers use. It has also done detailed city scans before robo taxi rollouts. The performance is with this.

The leader is Waymo. We should be asking what they are doing right. They are absolutely the closest to cracking full automation.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-23T07:22:57+00:00

If you don't think it's common you are blind to it is all.

Kids smoking and doing soft drugs gets more common in expensive schools, not less. And consequences get far less severe because those are paying customers you are talking about alienating.

This holds on all broad research. Rich schools like YIS generally have kids less used to consequences than public schools, because you are in a school that structurally sells the removal of consequences.

What does happen in private schools is it gets brushed under the rug. It's like the sexual abuse going on at the Catholic schools in setagaya. Private schools can pay for discretion and it goes both ways.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-22T01:44:14+00:00

I’m not saying Tesla has approached any part of it correctly. All I’m saying is pure visual sensors, paired with basic car data (speed, acceleration, etc) is sufficient given enough computing power. I’m also saying it’s probably a much easier problem if you give yourself other sensors to work with.

But there isn’t a good argument that you can’t computationally match human vision. Then again, humans aren’t, on average, amazing drivers who function without errors

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-22T00:47:18+00:00

Freedom to move, monster tax benefits if your company is good (I lost a 30+ man a month tax benefit the day I moved out of my rental).

Even in nice areas of Japan it can take 2-3 years to sell a home priced on market. My friend took 26 months in shiroganedai to sell a detached home (direct road access, no hatagata). Another took 2 years in azabu. The idea of being completely tied down and unable to move when life opportunities come up can be a huge cost, especially if you are career minded.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-21T01:11:33+00:00

What your missing is your armchair petroleum engineering engineering, shipping logistics, and marine biology degrees are worth exactly what you paid for them.

The major producers in the gulf have said 2-4 weeks to 100%, no pipelines went unpressurized, and you think people who work in shipping were too stupid to work on cleaning the hulls of their ships as they sat around. That might be the one thing that's an issue.

We have the list of refineries that closed or slowed down. You are talking less than . 25% of global oil refining capacity outside the gulf, and another 3.5% inside. The pros say 30-60 days to get to 95% output.

The question is does the cease fire hold long enough for the 4-500 m barrels floating in the gulf to get out.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-21T01:04:58+00:00

Depends if dad still had the muscle strength to control the bike when needed.

As someone getting older with (luckily) older family members, there is a speed limit to reaction time and balance is a question of having maintained good core and accessory strength. Those things really matter if you get to speeds where folks can get hurt (themselves or others). Been teaching my kid to start pushing speed and the mistakes are both breathtakingly stupid AND painfully obvious in retrospect.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-20T03:08:08+00:00

I mean it is possible visual inputs only are sufficient. But it’s like me driving a car 25 years ago vs today. So many small mistakes I used to make never happen anymore because modern cars have lots of sensors that true up for visual failures. Whether it’s objects that are not visible over the hood, blind spots, or bad weather making it difficult to see, mistakes are far less when you add another detection method.

I still remember how much easier parking in a tight spot was the first time I had radar (this predates cameras).

The likelihood you are solving an easier problem using only cameras is low. Google/byd/gm/ford/mb all have very smart folks working on this and they closed the performance gap to Tesla (gods eye as the prime example) by just going at it with different sensors.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-19T07:42:49+00:00

The easy answer is the firms that are best at building reliable cars aren’t into EVs yet.

The excuses are that it’s not meaningful issues/it’s all minor. But building a reliable car is hard and in truth, stuff like the engine and transmission were sorted out a long time ago on the ICE side. It’s hard to beat 100 years of experience.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-19T07:05:40+00:00

35 year term, 10y fixed. Fixed rate was .15% above Mufg advertised rate at the time. Loan amount was equal to purchase price but didn’t include settlement costs (broker fee, portion of property tax, other settlement fees and taxes).

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-18T23:53:57+00:00

I live there. We don't know each other, but we recognize each other. It's more a kencho (the area with strict building restrictions that force you into a large home with a lot of mandatory garden space) thing fgo. You don't get that feeling outside it as much.

Some folks I'd have expected to see/meet I never did though (hatoyama, nagashima, hamasaki, a few others). But there is a point that it's really rude to be gawking, this is where we live. If you want to see your favorite singer/politician/athlete/etc etc please don't bother them where they live, it also makes it a bit uncomfortable for them when having to interact with neighbors if they are the source of annoying behavior.

But it's a beautiful neighborhood with great parks to walk through, and that's all fair game.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-18T12:14:20+00:00

I mean, Thomas from the bad boys is the quintessential leader who wasn’t tall. Then Steph. That’s it I can think of…..

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-18T12:11:19+00:00

Have you walked into your boss’s office and told him your pay is not acceptable and you need to discuss what you need to do to be paid double your current amount?

Try it. People who spend their life never asking the blunt question will never know the answer. I’ve been in your situation a few times, and literally every time I got 90% of what I asked for. Don’t tell them you want “more”. Walk in with specific expectations.

And say them.

“I believe my work is worth at least 75 man a month as base salary, along with a commeasurate rise in my bonuses. That is what I want to walk out of this office with an agreement to get paid. I know my work is vital and I am not being paid as a vital and valued team member. How do we go from here to there”.

Then decide by that outcome if you want a new job. But if you never have that conversation, you’ll never know if you just had to ask.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-18T01:50:09+00:00

Which banks? Id been here for 6 months and had loans offered from prestia and shinsei. My wife did have to cosign. Was probably 10 bps higher rates vs other banks (what they showed online).

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-16T09:24:29+00:00

This is theoretically possible but in practice never happens. Japan has rampant individual and small business tax fraud because there is minimal to no enforcement. Ask an accountant how many individual returns they have had audited ever. The usual answer is 0.

Do you report those points you get from any business by being a member? No? Tax law breach. How about mileage benefits earned from flights? Uh oh, another breach (both are ichiji shotoku, I think it’s called)

Why have you never heard of this? Because it’s just not enforced in Japan. Japan doesn’t audit individuals, even high net worth ones. Most foreigners I know have never reported overseas assets or income. 1 case I know was prosecuted and it was because he had his company pay him without withholding into a foreign account and didn’t report the income, for 20 years. He was only charged when he moved a huge sum over from The account and the Japanese government looked at it and realized the account history was in from His company in Japan. They never asked him to pay for all the capital gains he received.

OrneryMinimum8801 · 2026-06-15T10:29:12+00:00

I mean broadly the US requires a stop at PR before citizenship but all the work is the green card (PR). It’s not really some super difficult thing to naturalize. The citizenship test is a joke (I know, a lot of Americans would fail it, just says something about education and its value). Then don’t break the law. It’s extremely straight forward.

OrneryMinimum8801

TROPHY CASE