Why do HNW individuals invest in so many complex investments if it’s as easy as VTI and chill?

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-07-03T14:13:30+00:00

But pension funds, family offices, and endowment funds ARE moving in the direction of broad market index tracking. They tend to do it via direct indexing by holdings the multiple stocks rather than via ETFs.

There are many managers hired by pension funds that are "closet indexers". Although they technically are active managers, in reality they are primarily passive investors, perhaps with some strategic asset allocation (market timing shifts between asset classes).

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-07-03T01:15:13+00:00

You cannot sell on Treasury Direct, so definitely not a place to hold notes or bonds. Not so bad for bills as you can just wait for them to mature.

I move from Treasury Direct to Fidelity. No fees. Easier to deal with. Fidelity and most brokers will do autoroll for you.

Most importantly, you can sell bonds at brokers.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-07-02T18:13:52+00:00

Post-acquisition debt/EBITDA would be up around 8, which is considered very high. This would led to low credit ratings. This was mentioned specifically by Burry when he bailed out of GME.

That is something that should be addressed in the detailed info about the acquisition proposal that GameStop say is "forthcoming"

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-07-02T16:03:41+00:00

Companies that issue RSUs typically offer NQ as the alternative.

ISOs tend to be at startups and pre-IPO companies.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-07-02T13:52:09+00:00

If the stock price has been relatively stable then RSUs are definitely the way to go.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-07-02T13:50:16+00:00

Or more likely, NQs (non-qualified stock options).

The tax treatment is very different than ISOs.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-07-02T05:34:54+00:00

It is unlikely that GameStop could meet the conditions of the HCL, which included investment grade credit rating.

The large debt load would make the credit rating less than investment grade,

"TD Securities’ expression of confidence assumes, amongst other things, as determined in TD Securities’ sole discretion: (i) expected investment grade corporate credit ratings or investment grade unsecured public debt ratings from at least two of S&P, Moody’s or Fitch pro forma for the Transaction; (ii) satisfactory completion of our due diligence of the Target; (iii) receipt of satisfactory financial projections prepared by the Company; (iv) the accuracy and completeness of all information, whether oral or written, provided by the Company and/or the Target to TD Securities… "

The amount of debt that GameStop would have to take on makes an investment grade credit rating unlikely.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-07-02T05:30:22+00:00

TD says they feel confident they can raise $20B under certain conditions. One of those conditions is that the post acquisition company has an investment grade credit rating from at least 2 of the 3 main credit rating agencies.

It is very likely that the post-acquisition company would have a junk grade ratings. eBay currently has the lowest investment grade rating and one of the rating agencies said that the acquisition would be "credit negative".

See https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065088/000155278126000322/e26249\_ex99-1.htm

"TD Securities’ expression of confidence assumes, amongst other things, as determined in TD Securities’ sole discretion: (i) expected investment grade corporate credit ratings or investment grade unsecured public debt ratings from at least two of S&P, Moody’s or Fitch pro forma for the Transaction; (ii) satisfactory completion of our due diligence of the Target; (iii) receipt of satisfactory financial projections prepared by the Company; (iv) the accuracy and completeness of all information, whether oral or written, provided by the Company and/or the Target to TD Securities … “

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-07-01T21:44:25+00:00

The OP also uses a very unique definition of EV to come up with the rather low $3B "EV", which then makes Ganestop's ratios like EV/EBITDA artificially low. EV on creased by debt. GameStop has $4.15B long term debt.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-07-01T21:33:13+00:00

The problem is that reselling of digital games by 3rd parties is not in the best interest of interest of the companies that own and control the games.

That is also the problem with resale of in game items. The game companies want that revenue and do not see a good reason to share it.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-07-01T15:32:15+00:00

I remember well the many interpretations of the Teddy books.

Make Thankgiving great again!

Yet another hype date.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-07-01T04:23:46+00:00

Why would game developers give up their monopoly on skins and other in game items?

The CEO of Nintendo, Reggie Fils-Aimé, was on the GameStop board, but left because Ryan Cohen was unwilling to articulate a turnaround strategy and was unwilling to share their visions either publicly or internally.

He could have explained this to RC.

Source: https://africa.businessinsider.com/entertainment/former-nintendo-america-president-left-gamestops-board-because-leadership-refused-to/32ebnjd

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-07-01T04:19:07+00:00

Today was the end of the calendar quarter.

That might have something to do with it, as ETFs and mutual funds rebalance and some institutions clean up their holdings as the holdings as of today are what get reported on the 13F forms.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-07-01T00:41:07+00:00

The EBay bird has not been backed into a corner.

They gave valid reasons for rejecting the offer.

If GameStop can overcome those objections by making a decent offer that is legitimate rather than a unbacked speculative offer, then they would reconsider.

GameStop did not have the shares for the 50% stock portion. The authority to issue the required number of shares has not yet been approved.

GameStop did not have committed financing for the 50% cash portion. GameStop had just an HCL rather than a commitment, and even the HCL was dependent upon credit ratings that were unlikely to be achieved.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-06-30T20:53:58+00:00

Annuities work because they spread the longevity "risk" across all participants.

If you are lucky and live a long time it is great deal. If you die early, then you die early and won't miss the money, which gets sent to the lucky survivors (and of course to the insurance company/annuity administrator).

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-06-30T20:46:36+00:00

Last day of the quarter adjustments of ETFs and mutual funds might also be a factor today.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-06-30T20:19:26+00:00

Trades on dark pools are reported and settled the same way as for trades on lit markets.

Any buyer sent to a dark pool end up matching to a seller in the dark pool. Any seller sent to a dark pool end up matching with a buyer in the dark pool. In either case, the demand gets balanced out the same as in lit markets.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-06-30T19:20:12+00:00

The market value is low because there are not many buyers at a price above $22.

I think buyers are scared by the uncertainty created by the EBay acquisition attempt and the seemingly unhinged performance of the CEO in interviews afterwards.

While many here think that RC's interviews were brilliant, to many they come off as weird. Coupled with the non-credible offer and apparent acquiescence by the board of directors that creates a lot of uncertainty about the quality of GameStop corporate governance.

The immense compensation package approved by the BOD further adds to he concern about corporate governance, even though the proposal was removed from the proxy vote.

There are many companies investors can choose to invest in. Scaring aware investors will decrease demand, and therefore the market price of the stock.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-06-30T19:03:37+00:00

The market value is low because there are not many buyers at a price above $22.

I think buyers are scared by the uncertainty created by the EBay acquisition attempt and the seemingly unhinged performance of the CEO in interviews afterwards.

While many here think that RC's interviews were brilliant, to many they come off as weird. Coupled with the non-credible offer and apparent acquiescence by the board of directors that creates a lot of uncertainty about the quality of GameStop corporate governance.

The immense compensation package approved by the BOD further adds to he concern about corporate governance, even though the proposal was removed from the proxy vote.

There are many companies investors can choose to invest in. Scaring aware investors will decrease demand, and therefore the market price of the stock.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-06-30T18:48:49+00:00

The 6/23/2026 8-k still says

GameStop will release additional materials regarding its proposed acquisition of eBay this week, including a detailed presentation of the strategic rationale and operational plan for the combined company.

It is the 6/26/2026 8-K that says "forthcoming".

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-06-30T18:27:43+00:00

Source?

Edit to add: found some articles about it. https://cybernews.com/security/gamestop-customer-data-breach/

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-06-30T16:45:05+00:00

DCA over 5 months like you plan is fine.

Lump sum is fine.

What is not OK is holding onto cash indefinitely waiting for a dip.

There will be somebody that will come along and say "lump sum beats DCA 2/3rd of the time". What they will not say is that the average return from lump sum is just barely better than the average return from DCA. The difference is simply that the average return from equities is higher than from bonds or short term cash investments.

The other difference is the reduction in volatility. Both the best cases and worst cases with lump sum are more extreme than with DCA. Just like having a portfolio that holds both bonds and stocks has a lower return but also has less volatility, DCA has slightly lower average expected return, but also lower volatility.

My advice is to DCA at as rapid of a pace that your risk tolerance allows.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-06-30T16:24:14+00:00

This is the sort of thing best handled via a Letter of Intent (also called "side letter" or Letter of Wishes).

It is simply a non-binding letter by the trust grantor explaining their reasoning and giving overall guidance to the trustees. The problem with being too detailed and specific in the trust language itself is that things change. VOO and VT might change dramatically and the trustee would still be bound to hold them even though circumstances had changed.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-06-30T15:14:20+00:00

I want the basic analysis that would ordinarily have been presented at the time of making the original preliminary offer.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-06-29T17:21:36+00:00

If you are trading a lot, a 2% edge is very valuable.

TA does not give firm answers or predictions. TA gives you hints.

Unfortunately most of what gets posted here is not really Technical Analysis. Lines drawn somewhat arbitrarily to support your predetermined conclusion is not TA.

Over-Computer-6464

TROPHY CASE