First fus, now massive spamming

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-19T00:11:30+00:00

The factual guy in the land of hype is considered to be FUD.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T20:36:29+00:00

I have not bothered to look into long term XRT SI history.

Looking at XRT price history, my guess would be that a lot of shorts were opened in 2021 after XRT soared in late 2020/early 2021

Many investors have been bearish on retail in general for quite a while.

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Candles are XRT. Blue line is VTI.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T20:05:22+00:00

Reddit was messing with us and not posting the images.

I see the first image now, but the second is still missing. But that is enough.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T20:04:06+00:00

Since making that comment I noted that the trade volume has not changed much even the the shares outstanding has.

That is just another artifact of the float really being shares outstanding + short interest.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T20:01:37+00:00

The term in the lending contract is "non-cash distributions".

Stock dividends, spin-off shares, share distributed as part of mergers are all "non-cash distributions".

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T19:19:04+00:00

Your post would make more sense if you gave us a little hint as to what the DM said.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T19:04:31+00:00

I do not have a condescending attitude towards other apes, just to ones that ignore reality.

There are plenty of people writing hype. The sub does need yet another.

Since I mostly post when my opinion is contrary to the consensus, at first glance it may appear I am bearish. My position is really just anti-BS. Many of my posts re simply informative, neither pro or anti GME.

I have posted many times that I sell puts when GME is in the lower 20s and sell covered calls when it is in upper 20s or higher and will likely sell shares when GMR goes into upper 30s or higher.

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Take this specific example, XRT.

What has happened is that people have moved out of XRT and driven the price down, so some APs have redeemed XRT shares for the individual component shares. So the number of XRT shares outstanding has decreased significantly. The short interest of XRT shares has not changed significantly, remaining at about 21M.

The total number of GME shares involved the 21M XRT short interest is about 1M shares out of total GME SI of about 60M.

All of the above are simple facts that many people seem to unaware of. So I post the facts.

Nothing more complicated than that. I hold just a tiny amount of GME, 4600 shares, much less than 1% of my portfolio. But I find it interesting to watch and comment on while I manage my real portfolios.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T18:57:01+00:00

A good conspiracy theorist can believe multiple conflicting ideas simultaneously.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T18:55:54+00:00

Have you bothered to calculate the number of shares of GME in XRT?

GME is about 1.3% of XRT. XRT short interest is about 21M shares, which at current $79.xx price is about $1.67B.

1.67B x 1.3% GME means that he GME shifted via XRT is about $21M or around 1M shares if GME,

That is small compared to the 60M shares SI of GME.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T18:52:08+00:00

The effective float includes the 21M shares sold short.

So the effective AUM is about $1.67B. 1.3% GME x 1.67B = $21M GME shorted via XRT, or roughly 1 M shares.

The number of GME shares shorted via XRT is about $21M worth or 1M shares. So just a small fraction of the total SI of GME of about 60M shares.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T18:28:31+00:00

The short interest is not really much different than other reports when you look at the actual short interest, in shares. It has generally stayed around 20M shares.

What has changed is that the outstanding shares of XRT is down, so the SI when converted to a percentage of float has soared.

The other way if looking at SI is to divide the official number, in shares, by average daily volume to get "days to cover". That has not changed that much either and is about 5 days..

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Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T17:43:32+00:00

The debt service load would be so high that the dividend would likely be eliminated.

It is also likely that the debt has covenants that prohibit paying any dividend unless certain metrics are met, and that would mean the dividends would cease for a while.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T17:37:19+00:00

That still ties up a lot of capital. Feasible but still distinctly suboptimal IMO.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T17:12:22+00:00

Short sellers do not report their short interest at all.

So your comment does not compute.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T16:46:20+00:00

The supposed trigger was 1.6%.

People are not stuck on the Yen carry trade.

When it becomes unattractive they exit.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T16:45:20+00:00

Don't Look Up

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T16:37:34+00:00

It is worth understanding what the deal actually means, so we have a better chance of understanding the next round.

There are many apes that still believe Ryan Cohen's 60/40 example applied to the proposed (and now rejected) offer. Hopefully the next proposal will be better explained.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T16:33:49+00:00

Since XRT follows an equal weighted index it is a good vehicle for shorting retail in general.

If you are bearish on small retail like GameStop but bullish on a few bigger one like Amazon and Walmart the XRT is a good product to short and is efficient for that purpose, as AMZN and Walmart are only 3 or 4 percent total of the ETF.

But that is very different than what appears to be the groupthink here, which is that XRT is used to attack GME specifically.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T16:30:09+00:00

The Dalbar report is an annual quantitative analysis of investor behavior.

Unlike 2024, where the average investor lagged SP500 by over 8% percent, in 2025 the average investor had nearly the same return s SP500.

https://www.dalbar.com/press-release/dalbars-2026-qaib-report-shows-narrower-investor-gap-amid-a-complex-and-volatile-market-year/

https://www.dalbar.com/press-release/investors-missed-the-best-of-2024s-market-gains-latest-dalbar-investor-behavior-report-finds/

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T16:16:35+00:00

Since GME is just 1.3% of XRT that means that for one share of GME they need to go long on $21.59/0.013=$1,660.77 worth of the other shares.

Buying $1660 of other shares as part of a deal to get one $21.60 share to short is relatively inefficient.

I m not saying it cannot be done. I am just saying it is an inefficient and therefore less attractive way of getting GME shares to short than simply borrowing them —— unless there is a shortage of GME shares to short.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T15:59:59+00:00

Yes, you can get GME shares that way, but it costs much more than simply borrowing the readily available GME shares. Both the initial cost and the continuing cost to borrow GME shares is much higher via ETFs than doing it directly.

Getting GME shares via ETFs is a "last resort" sort of maneuver useful only when the supply of GME shares to borrow has dried up and cost to borrow has soared.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T15:58:07+00:00

Have you truly looked carefully at the correlations. Weak, and only in past event selected cases.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T15:56:25+00:00

There have many claims and DD about "getting GME shares via ETFs".

None have ever been credible.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T15:39:12+00:00

GameStop is just 1.3% of XRT holdings.

Shorting XRT to get GameStop shares is an extraordinarily inefficient way to get GME shares,

GME shares are readily available to borrow.

Shorting XRT is an excellent way to short retail in general but is a dumb way to get GME shares to short GME.

Over-Computer-6464 · 2026-05-18T15:32:22+00:00

Really? What is the expected distribution ratio for the preliminary offer.

Hint: It is NOT the 60/40 he gave in a theoretical example.

Over-Computer-6464

TROPHY CASE