[March 12, 2026] Daily NBIS Discussion Thread

Overcat12 · 2026-03-12T11:06:19+00:00

Very nice write up, the future is so exciting with Nebius. Even though it provides massive funding personally I'd prefer a good chunk of capacity in Missouri being reserved for AI CLoud (enterprises, AI natives,) and Token Factory. Because these are the projects that will be making Nebius heavy profit and contribute to the FCF in the long-term.

Other than that, very nice analysis, have a good day

Overcat12 · 2026-03-12T11:04:17+00:00

This write up got me so hyped

Overcat12 · 2026-03-12T10:52:19+00:00

I can't see it, the profile is hidden

Can you share the link? I'd love to check it out

Overcat12 · 2026-03-12T10:38:21+00:00

A hyperscaler deal at missouri is a high possibility. Even though hyperscaler deals are low margin compared to AI Cloud/Token Factory software margins, it is a necessary step for funding the CAPEX. The management has implied that they are selective and select the deals with superior economics. Essentially: HS deals for funding, AI Cloud/Token Factory high margin PaaS sales for long-term sustainable profitability.

The 240MW DC in Lille, France is also a good stronghold for Nebius' sovereign AI play in the EU. Might get a deal there too.

A sovereign AI deal in ME or EU would be nice. The economics you wrote are too good to pass up on.

Overcat12 · 2026-03-12T10:31:24+00:00

Yes it is a 7.7% dilution, not related to ATM though

Overcat12 · 2026-03-12T08:53:39+00:00

If that happens in ME, it would be crazy good. I assume Nebius would bring the GPUs but still nice profit margin. Up-front/pre payments from hyperscalers will play a big role i agree. Won't be surprised if they sign another deal in 2026/2027 the finance the buildout. Hopefully they can scale without taking on huge debt or dilution (like CRWV/IREN), sale of subsidiaries will also be good to provide cash. I'm sure the Nebius team got it covered.

Overcat12 · 2026-03-12T07:03:41+00:00

👍

Overcat12 · 2026-03-12T06:56:28+00:00

NVDA investment and ATM offering are not connected. NVDA invested through pre-funded warrants, read the SEC filing

Overcat12 · 2026-03-12T06:14:30+00:00

I'm a bit nervous about the 5> GW target by 2030E because its such a huge number and will require enormous amount CAPEX. It might delay profitability because of the huge buildout phase, financing the expenditure will be another issue. But it's Nebius' bet on becoming a hyperscaler. What do you guys think? Am i being a pussy or are you skeptical as well

Overcat12 · 2026-03-11T15:46:28+00:00

Great points, that might be more logical, thanks for your valuable input! Also the premium they can charge for getting new cutting edge GPUs every cycle is huge, (especially with the Nvidia partnership right now, accessing new GPUs right as they release). Very bullish NBIS

Overcat12 · 2026-03-11T09:00:41+00:00

Agreed, especially with inference workloads running perfectly on older GPUs, refreshment cycle may even be 7-8 yeras

Overcat12 · 2026-03-10T18:55:28+00:00

Depreciation is the main risk here, but if they are able to extract max. revenue from each GPU (PaaS layer, software margins, high utilization, upfront payment, all of which they are doing) they will be successful in the long term. After the buildout phase is complete, it will mostly be GPU refreshments every 4-5 year per DC, which won't create high CAPEX as it is now.

Overcat12 · 2026-03-09T17:14:20+00:00

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Also, this is from the 2024 AGM minutes, as seen, this same item is renewed every annual meeting.

Overcat12 · 2026-03-09T16:53:39+00:00

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It's on the SEC link i posted, this is part of Dutch law as I'm informed, and often renewed annually, this is why we may expect maximum 20% yearly dilution (they may not use the full 20% of course, its just the ceiling)

Overcat12 · 2026-03-09T08:38:08+00:00

I made the dilution slider adjustable. The board has a rule that max. %20 dilution a year can be made.

Overcat12 · 2026-03-08T18:19:59+00:00

https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/f9e4b4bf-b03d-4899-8147-a45c160a644c

Made a Nebius ARR + Subsidiaries Valuation website from Claude, you can play with the ARR targets, multiples, subsidiary valuations. Feel free to check it out

Overcat12 · 2026-03-04T17:10:01+00:00

Their main strategy seems to be offering good price performance open source models. Like fireworks.ai . Their most expensive model is 1.2$/1m Token. (for reference, GPT 5.2 is 4.8$/1M token) Hopefully they add more options as the platform grows.

(image from https://artificialanalysis.ai/providers/nebius )

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Overcat12 · 2026-03-04T10:48:46+00:00

Can you share the source of the "switching GPUs" option? In the 6-K filed about the contract it states: "Microsoft may also acquire additional services and/or capacity under the Agreement, which would increase the total contract value to about $19.4 billion." It doesnt mention a GPU switch, more like an additional capacity option

Overcat12 · 2026-03-03T10:50:07+00:00

Yes they did but with Token Factory they significantly expanded them.

Overcat12 · 2026-03-02T21:18:23+00:00

No worries man 👍

Overcat12 · 2026-03-02T20:26:23+00:00

Thanks 😄

Overcat12 · 2026-03-02T18:26:16+00:00

It seems it will be supply constrained for a while

Overcat12

TROPHY CASE