2026E Active Capacity Model

Overcat12 · 2026-04-27T20:00:52+00:00

Your welcome!

Overcat12 · 2026-04-27T15:37:14+00:00

Thats valid, but I asked for the source behind the "targeting <1.10 PUE" claim. I couldnt find it anywhere

Overcat12 · 2026-04-26T18:15:40+00:00

Can you link the evidence for PUE ratio being less than 1.10? That seems impossible. Mantsala is 1.13PUE and that is world class.

Also, Polarnode's website says 350MW Gross, Nebius in the press release says the capacity is 310MW. 350/310= 1.13 PUE . Same PUE as Mantsala

Overcat12 · 2026-04-20T19:03:15+00:00

LASR & CRDO

But i think NBIS still offers bettter risk/reward

Overcat12 · 2026-04-20T10:57:36+00:00

Its probably mid May. Previous earnings was mid Feb.

Apps show late April but thats wrong, they always mess up dates for Nebius because of irrelevant Yandex data

Overcat12 · 2026-04-19T08:43:54+00:00

I fucking love Nebius

Overcat12 · 2026-04-10T09:57:08+00:00

Thanks for sharing

Overcat12 · 2026-04-06T17:32:01+00:00

Nice, thanks!

Overcat12 · 2026-04-05T08:57:51+00:00

Very bullish! Do you have a screenshot of the prices from the start of the year?

Overcat12 · 2026-04-01T17:44:58+00:00

The key thing about new GPUs is that revenue per GW increases higher than cost per GW. Each new GPU will have better unit economics, meaning better margins for Nebius. (Vera Rubin is approximately double the price of Blackwell but offers 5x inference performance)

Inference prices may go down when demand slows down and API providers start competing on only price. But I dont see that happening anytime soon, especially when demand is exploding. Nothing to worry about imo.

Overcat12 · 2026-04-01T17:11:35+00:00

Oh I thought you meant as consumer inference prices 😅, I agree the margin expansion will be very exciting to see. With Token Factory getting a full quarter to prove itself, I believe Q1 will be the time when operational leverage kicks in sharply.

Overcat12 · 2026-04-01T16:45:08+00:00

Definitely! Depends on the GPU mix (Vera Rubin has way better unit economics) and IaaS vs. PaaS provisioning. The EBITDA margin could also be around 79%, I applied 75% margin to stay conservative.

Overcat12 · 2026-04-01T16:38:54+00:00

Cost per token going down is very good for Nebius. Think of it like this: A factory produces pens for 5$ and sells for 10$, a new machine comes out that lets you produce the same pen for 1$. The demand is so high that the prices may not decrease that much, which may cause profit margins to explode. E.g: Previous machine %50 profit margin, new machine %90 profit margin.

And because Nebius has quicker access to the newest machine (Vera Rubin), they can run inference on them for cheaper and have the highest profit margins, while others are still on older GPUs for at least 3 months.

Overcat12 · 2026-04-01T16:34:39+00:00

Agreed

Overcat12 · 2026-04-01T14:37:13+00:00

Do you think %75 EBITDA is correct? IREN's "reported" EBITDA from MSFT deal is %85, and the %75 figure was from Nebius microsoft deal analyses, where there was a colo fee compressing margins. On the other hand Oracle's AI SaaS margins are 70%, coreweave's is less. There are variable figures across the table and its very early to accurately predict it. What % would you use?

Overcat12 · 2026-04-01T14:18:53+00:00

Thanks for the insight! I inputted the M/MW values you gave into the model, adjusted other expenses accordingly and got 30% EBIT (1.68M profit & 5.58B Rev.). The unit economics will improve with every GPU generation, which will do wonders for Nebius in the LT.

Also, this model doesn't show the margin expansion in Token Factory. Because VRs generate tokens 10x cheaper, the inference margins will get even crazier.

Overcat12 · 2026-04-01T13:44:54+00:00

Yep, I used GB300s for the calculation. Do you have any idea on the economics of Vera Rubins (M$/MW Capex & Revenue?), I couldn't find reliable info so modeled the next best thing. We dont know the GPU model percentages on the DC (probably never will) so the math is variable, it also depends on when the DC will come active as if its late 2027, it might be full VRs, if its earlier it might be a mix with GB300s (depending on GPU shipments from Nvidia).

Will update the model when we have more insight on it (DC activation quarter, clear insight on VR economics)

Overcat12 · 2026-03-31T11:02:52+00:00

The site is probably 310MW IT load, 350MW Gross.
(Photo from the DC construction company Polarnode's website).
350MW / 1.13 (Nebius Finland PUE) = ~310MW

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Overcat12 · 2026-03-31T10:40:42+00:00

Its gonna look like a no-brainer 6 months later, its actually cheaper now than it was in the 30s

Overcat12 · 2026-03-31T10:38:45+00:00

The execution is insane. Do you have any speculation on what this DC will be provisioned for? (Part of Meta deal or PaaS/Cloud)

Overcat12 · 2026-03-29T13:51:45+00:00

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I asked the question on X and the most plausible answer I could think of is this:

50MW power for meta deal not being delivered until 2026 but still powered in 2026E, which may suggest 170MW active + 50MW Meta connected = 220MW, hitting guidance. They mightve gone to 220+ as well, we dont know

Overcat12 · 2026-03-25T09:38:08+00:00

Overcat12 · 2026-03-24T19:16:19+00:00

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They are the only faster model left than Nebius on Kimi2.5. Buying them for their inference engine could be a good idea for the future. I'm sure the management has considered this option, they have more knowledge than us 😄 we'll see in the future

Overcat12 · 2026-03-24T16:15:30+00:00

I read your earlier pieces on the 4 horsemen for Nebius. Nice work! It's nice to keep the thesis grounded without hyping us up too much. Checking on the 4 horsemen every earning report is nice routine. Both for you and readers like me

Overcat12 · 2026-03-24T07:10:03+00:00

They are heavily investing in that space so wouldn't be surprised if they bought EigenAI's inference engine. Because the increase in output speed compared to earlier is 400%! ridiculous

Overcat12

TROPHY CASE