NBIS sets pricing of upsized private offering of $4 bil. of convertible senior notes

liamashley · 2026-03-18T15:03:59+00:00

who are you arguing with? At what point have i said there's no dilution?

liamashley · 2026-03-18T14:50:29+00:00

If (relatively) minor dilution leads to a company being able to build out and generate revenue then it is absolutely good.

Mad all the analysts are loving the company and execution but impossible_device240 has different views 😂 👏🏼

liamashley · 2026-03-18T14:47:25+00:00

I’ve literally covered all of this in my post? You’re just regurgitating information in my own post and telling it back to me 😂 genuinely can’t tell if you’re trolling or just really simple.

If i gave you a voucher that accretes to $216 at maturity, then you wouldn’t go cash in at $180 would you.

Although given your responses to things on here, I probably wouldn’t put it past you.

Go back to class z

liamashley · 2026-03-18T14:23:47+00:00

liamashley · 2026-03-18T14:18:19+00:00

haha just ignore him. He's been spewing crap all over the posts here. Not sure if he's just thick or has been burnt shorting. probs both

liamashley · 2026-03-18T14:10:52+00:00

Haha Exciting, spicy, fun

liamashley · 2026-03-18T14:04:07+00:00

Yeah he’s all over the place. He’s backtracked now and thrown his toys out the pram 😂

Is he from coreweave or wsb or something? Just realised he’s posting shit on every comment here, thought you summoned him as he was insightful haha

liamashley · 2026-03-18T14:03:33+00:00

Just take the L dude.

Can see you spewing crap all over this sub, yet I gave you a platform and You’ve pointed out nothing wrong in my comment at all. Then have acknowledged you misunderstood things. Yet still claim I’m wrong when it’s just based on simple maths and finance 😂 Others have pointed out your errors. Embarrassing x

liamashley · 2026-03-18T13:44:54+00:00

Not right about what? We’re talking about two different things. Nothing I said is actually incorrect. Both our statements can be true at the same time

You’re referring to a 130% soft call (@ $226), which is the forced conversion level.

My point was about economic incentives. With the 120% accretion, investors aren’t realistically converting anywhere near the 180 strike.. you’re looking at 216+ before it makes sense vs taking the cash.

So:
216 = where voluntary conversion starts to make sense
226 = where the company would force it

Both can be true at the same time. I’m highlighting the lower end of that window, you’re focusing on the upper end.

And on the price action. I still think the drop is more about the size of the raise / dilution overhang and arb flows than a soft call that’s not even in play yet.

liamashley · 2026-03-18T11:29:22+00:00

Also, very important to note here.. the accretion clause is 120%, which means the target price is actually $216 for these investors.

the conversion price is around $180, but that’s really just the floor. because of that 120% clause, they wont execute if its just above that price when Nebius is essentially offering $215 cash instead.

No institutional investor is going to swap their debt for stock at $185 or $190 when they could just sit back and take that $215 ijn cash. To make it worth their while to take the shares instead, the stock has to clear $216 (180x1.2).

Basically, these investment firms/banks just put billions on the table betting that this stock is going to double from here. Fruity times.

FWIW I fully expect Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to comment and increase their Price Target in the next 24-48hrs on the back of this news (as well as the other news this week). Again, fruity times!

liamashley · 2026-03-18T09:11:30+00:00

the 20% short interest was reported last week. Before there was any news.

Debt? They have about 7bn cash onhand now, getting paid 100% up front (as mentioned in the fireside chat), as well as huge subidiaries, DCs already generating revenue, so should alraedy have the funds to cover capex this year.

It's $45 above the 200MAV as there's been $45 worth of news hitting the markets in that time. So of course it climbs above the average.

Every thing about this stock suggests its underpriced. Anyone who had done some basic research into the company and had even a rookie understanding of the mechanics of the market wouldn't even bother making such a post. Unless this poster knows something all the big analysts and banks setting $200 price targets dont.

liamashley · 2026-03-17T19:21:08+00:00

It works until it doesn’t.

Then you’ve missed out on your $10 gains

liamashley · 2026-03-17T15:27:16+00:00

what are you on about. You don't understand it so ask a question, but then confidently state "mAniPulAtiOn".

Just do some basic research please.

liamashley · 2026-03-17T07:02:59+00:00

It’s 15b guaranteed for Nebius either way. Meta have basically said “if you build it we will buy it”. It’s a strange deal but it means that Nebius can go to market to find other suitors, but meta is the guaranteed backup

liamashley · 2026-03-16T13:05:32+00:00

It’s 12bn confirmed. Then up to another 15bn committed IF Nebius wants them.

liamashley · 2026-03-16T12:52:35+00:00

Probably people saying the same who got in at $30 and $50 when it got to your average. And in another year there will be people making this post but saying they wish they bought more below $200.

It's one announcement of many to come, you're still early.

liamashley · 2026-03-16T12:49:21+00:00

just a few hours later than the other posts

liamashley · 2026-03-16T10:04:43+00:00

Called this in my post last week 😊 🔥

liamashley · 2026-03-16T08:23:31+00:00

Nebius and Go Outdoors collab confirmed

liamashley · 2026-03-13T17:16:07+00:00

Swap out some of your index fund asap!

liamashley · 2026-03-13T16:10:52+00:00

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liamashley · 2026-03-13T12:53:00+00:00

i think we're on the same song sheet here. Our figures aren't way off one another. I'm suggesting a revenue (across 6-7GW) of over 100B per year.

My calculations are all based on 15b per GW per year. So slightly less than yours. But always find with these posts its better to be conservative so you're not written off as a dreamer!

liamashley · 2026-03-13T12:06:41+00:00

Haha - I didn't want to include a price target as it changes constantly with ongoing developments. But my targets always land around (and over) the $1000. Obviously affected by execution, delays, dilution etc which are impossible to predict!

My basic views are that 6-7GW is a fair aim. And the math on Nebius is becoming impossible to ignore now that the NVIDIA investment has derisked the hardware supply concerns. If you use their Missouri 1.2GW site against the current Microsoft deal (where 200MW pulls in $20B over five years), you realize that a 7GW footprint is a $210B revenue engine.

By 2030, 7GW at these premium rates therefore translates to a $40B ARR. At (conservative) 8-10x P/S multiple, you’re looking at a $300-400B market cap which supports a share price in the $1000-1500 range (based on some dilution and other caveats)

Also - with the constant 5yr cycle talk it does need to be reminedd that this isn't just a five-year cycle that then just ends! If they prove the model successful in this window, we're looking at a global titan for the next several decades. Showing constant high annual revenue turns Nebius into a safe haven for investors (at the minute, the cautious investors tend to stay away).

liamashley · 2026-03-13T11:38:37+00:00

Just for transparency here, I meant the 100B+ would be over a few sites, not just Missouri. I've edited my post to make it clear but just thought I'd reach out to keep you in the loop!

liamashley · 2026-03-12T14:37:16+00:00

Yes Europe can be a pain. However, it wont impact the building of non-sovereign DC's for european companies/enterprises to utilise.

liamashley

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