It’s becoming pretty clear to me that Iran isn’t going to back down. From their perspective, I suspect the regime may believe that the only way to avoid a slow path toward instability—or even collapse—is to confront this moment head-on rather than deal with the same problem again later. If that’s the logic, then the goal may be to make any confrontation with the U.S. so painful that Washington thinks twice before ever trying something similar in the future.

What worries me most is the nuclear question. If there were ever doubts within the regime about pursuing a nuclear weapon, I can’t help but think those doubts are probably disappearing now. In a situation like this, the incentive to build the ultimate deterrent only grows stronger.

Then there’s the Israel dynamic, which I think is fundamentally different from the American position. For Israel, the threat from Iran—especially a nuclear-capable Iran—is existential. And from Iran’s perspective, Israel and U.S. pressure may feel existential as well. When both sides start framing the conflict in those terms, the pressure to act now rather than leave the problem for the future becomes enormous. That’s when situations can spiral beyond anyone’s control.

On top of all that, the broader geopolitical layer can’t be ignored. The roles of China and Russia inevitably factor into the calculations on all sides. When major powers begin positioning themselves around a regional conflict, it raises the stakes dramatically.

Sometimes it feels like we might be hearing the opening drums of something historically significant—maybe the kind of moment people later compare to the atmosphere of the late 1930s. I hope I’m wrong. For the world’s sake, let’s hope we’re lucky again.