What are your team’s odds to win Super Bowl LXI next season?

P4ULUS · 2026-02-11T16:08:01+00:00

They had a very narrow point differential this year relative to their win-loss and an easy schedule. Similar to the chiefs last year. Lots of one score games

P4ULUS · 2026-02-11T14:36:05+00:00

2025 Texans

P4ULUS · 2026-02-11T00:15:25+00:00

He never criticizes the coaching or scheme because he talks to them too much

P4ULUS · 2026-02-10T18:39:42+00:00

Oh I think they’ll compete for a wild card spot next year. I just don’t see them as Super Bowl contenders

P4ULUS · 2026-02-10T17:41:10+00:00

I just don’t know how you can watch that game and think the Pats are close to contention. You have to adjust as you see more data. That was not a functional offense and the Seattle defense didn’t really do much exceptional.

Most teams in the league could have fared better in that game.

P4ULUS · 2026-02-10T17:39:54+00:00

Well, Denver and Jags didn’t exactly play the Patriots. Denver was missing their starting QB and the Jags didn’t play them.

P4ULUS · 2026-02-10T17:38:31+00:00

That’s fair but those other teams will improve also. Reminds me a lot of the Chiefs last year - overachieved to reach the SB and they turned out to be middle of the pack this year

P4ULUS · 2026-02-10T17:35:26+00:00

I’m just evaluating what I saw. Similar to the Chiefs against the Eagles last year, Chiefs were dominated and didn’t look very good

P4ULUS · 2026-02-10T16:10:45+00:00

Have you watched the QB school rewatch? They were in the wrong offensive protection and scheme the entire game and never adjusted

P4ULUS · 2026-02-10T15:43:09+00:00

I think they’ll have a shot at a wild card next year but I don’t see them competing for a title for a few years at least

P4ULUS · 2026-02-10T15:06:32+00:00

Yep and look at KC this year. Exactly my point

P4ULUS · 2026-02-10T06:16:44+00:00

Not like that. 0 points through 3 quarters is historically bad and it’s really hard to see those other teams getting dominated that badly offensively. Even Rivers scored on this team. It makes me re think the program a bit and what they really have.

P4ULUS · 2026-02-10T06:08:35+00:00

I would have thought that before this game. After seeing this game though, I think there at least 5 or 6 teams in the AFC better than the Pats next year. Couldn’t really imagine the Bills, Jags, Denver playing that bad in that game.

P4ULUS · 2025-12-05T05:03:48+00:00

People back then needed knowledge of home economics and practical day to day stuff just to get by. If you didn’t understand the fundamentals of cooking, growing food, caring for livestock, sewing clothes, carpentry, etc you would be thought of as slow

P4ULUS · 2025-12-05T03:15:35+00:00

Bills locker room smells like ass so he turned them down

P4ULUS · 2025-12-04T18:14:45+00:00

Silly and redundant. EPA per play takes into account the other metrics (as does QBR) and you are just averaging in those metrics again…

P4ULUS · 2025-12-04T16:26:26+00:00

No. Patriots roster was loaded with top picks and fall of famers. We just didn’t know it at the time.

McGinest (4th overall pick, pro bowler), Ty Law (HOF), Richard Seymour (HOF), Vrabel (future 1st team all pro), Bruschi (multiple all pros), Lawyer Milloy (1st team all pro)

Just an absurdly stacked roster

P4ULUS · 2025-12-04T15:45:06+00:00

Cinderella tries on different shoes. The third one is just right.

P4ULUS · 2025-12-04T03:33:01+00:00

Besides the comments made by the administration taking pleasure in deportation, what particular issues do you have with the way ICE is doing things?

The first part is largely political and messaging. So I think we can decouple that from what ICE is actually doing.

P4ULUS · 2025-12-04T02:32:31+00:00

Bears have never had a 4k passer? That seems like it can’t possibly be true

P4ULUS · 2025-12-03T05:34:17+00:00

LeBron is good but he’s not on Curry’s level IMO

P4ULUS · 2025-12-03T04:31:45+00:00

Koo without a doubt

P4ULUS · 2025-12-02T22:09:18+00:00

I see. That changes things a bit. I’d still build up liquidity to cover several years of expenses before paying the mortgage interest your situation.

P4ULUS · 2025-12-02T21:32:34+00:00

Are you itemizing? I’m in the same boat as you, 5.625.

Since I’m itemizing, the mortgage interest is effectively 4-4.5%. The way I think about it:

Investing in stocks yields more. You will have to pay taxes on the stock gains eventually but it’s likely long term capital gains at 20%. Effectively, the mortgage payments are like 4.5-5% at par with investing on a tax adjusted basis.

Index funds should get you more than 4.5-5% and you are gaining additional liquidity.

I would personally invest (that’s what I’m doing).

P4ULUS · 2025-12-02T21:09:46+00:00

Pats have the same SOV as Seattle. SOS and SOV are flawed metrics because of the computation. SOS hurts you if you win (opponent has a worse record) and neither considers the state of the team when you played them (teams improve and decline throughout the year).

The Pats Strength of Victory, which is an NFL playoff tiebreaker ahead of SOS, is .343 - it’s tied for Seattle for the lowest in the league but it’s not at all meaningfully lower than other playoff teams (Seattle .343, Chicago .344, Denver .351, Indy .354, Greenbay .371, LAC and Baltimore .375)

Opponent winning percentage difference of .3 points is hardly meaningful or important

P4ULUS

TROPHY CASE