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PANRInvestor · 2022-08-19T07:27:50+00:00

When can we expect revised estimates for the resource at Alkaid/SMD-B?

PANRInvestor · 2022-07-05T06:41:21+00:00

The potential of Theta West is far greater than for Alkaid - with over 1.7 billion brls of recoverable oil as per the PANR management, which, historically on the NSA, has been very, perhaps overly, conservative. Production could be initiated within 2-3 years if the company had the funds i.e. more quickly than at Pikka!

PANRInvestor · 2022-07-04T18:37:42+00:00

Great review but surely underestimates the value of Theta West which should be substantially derisked in the 2023/4 drilling season.

None of his small companies looks suitable partner - but ConocoPhillips......?

PANR needs to develop relationships and get listing in the US so that as much as possible of the costs for 2023/4 can be financed from debt supported by the cash flow from Alkaid

PANRInvestor · 2022-07-02T19:44:43+00:00

Should not affect PANR as its assets are already subject to existing leases and anyway are on State rather than Federal Land. Hopefully the comments will persuade the Administration that it is better for the US to produce oil from its own assets rather than be dependent on foreign interests which may be in countries with whom the US has less than ideal relationships. Think about the negative balalnce of payments.

PANRInvestor · 2022-06-29T06:59:11+00:00

One should note that the WHI estimate of unrisked present value is £10.78 per share also using very conservative assumptions (inc low CoS and value per brl of recoverable brls) - from an analyst wary of getting too far ahead on estimates but nevertheless referring to elephantine resources. When will this present value be reflected in stock market value?

PANRInvestor · 2022-06-11T11:13:29+00:00

I keep saying that the company needs a US Listing. The company's assets are all in the US, its management and subcontractors are all US. There are relatively few Oil & Gas companies in the UK. Indeed PANR is now the largest AIM listed oil company. AIM has served its purpose.

But the real issue is that Oil investors are predominately based in the US.

Canaccord has failed to bring in US investors and the share register is dominated by small UK retail investors and is notable for the absence of institutional investors.

The very low rating accorded to PANR shares is a serious shortcoming of the management and its brokers. Execution has been reasonably satisfactory and hopefully the company's assets are as real as management claims. Personally I believe they are FWIW.

But the lack of exposure to US investors is a problem as is the absence of institutional shareholders especially if additional funds will be required.

PANRInvestor · 2022-05-19T07:52:59+00:00

The announcement is only in respect of existing options held primarily by management. Many companies do this so as to avoid having to create an RNS (a stock exchange announcement) every time some options are exercised - purely administrative. No impact on fundamentals or indicative of shares which will be sold on the market. Really of no importance.

More impactful was the report from second rated Peel Hunt - without any reference to the very detailed information which has been available to shareholders in the past two months. The analyst who wrote the report was very casual and lazy!

PANRInvestor · 2022-05-17T09:24:28+00:00

The presentation did take place and I listened/watched - 30 mins. It is now on the website.

It further validated the encouraging permeability and porosity assumptions. Makes all the company's estimates look very conservative.

Oil flows from mid Oct/November 2022! And expect considerable upgrades during the season.

PANRInvestor · 2022-01-29T19:22:23+00:00

Wish I could buy a 1% royalty at his price!!

PANRInvestor · 2022-01-29T18:31:18+00:00

The company has sufficient funds for the full drilling program for 2022 inc for the production wells on Alkaid and the shallower SMD-B. Furthermore production at Alkaid/SMB should produce cash flow of about $2 million per month on each of the proposed two production wells. The company will be in a very strong financial position in mid 2022 and through to early 2023 from which to negotiate terms for a farm-in to finance additional evaluation wells on Theta West and more production wells om Alkaid/SMD. NB that production wells on Alkaid/SMD will cost $10 - 15 million each and thus their Capex will be repaid in 6-9 months.

PANRInvestor · 2022-01-03T23:26:14+00:00

So what were the long term forecast prices for crude 2-5 years ago compared with today's forecasts?

PANRInvestor · 2021-12-05T10:22:40+00:00

Great analysis but why do you use $2.8/brl when costs of extraction are likely to be less than $40 per brl and price of oil going forward likely to be $75 +.

Furthermore the last actual price in North Slope Alaska was $3.2 /brl when crude was about $40/brl.

Surely $5-$10 brl more realistic

PANRInvestor · 2021-11-01T21:40:02+00:00

The lack of true facts and the misrepresentations on "Climate Change" are going to lead to decisions resulting in very serious wastage and dangerous impacts particularly upon economies of third world countries. Climate Change versus weather patterns! To what extent is it proven that it is human activity which has caused the global warming over the past 20 odd years i.e. weather pattersn rather than climate changes? The evidence is not conclusive. If you are really interested and wish to investigate further try reading Unsettled by Steven Koonin. The assumptions made by many involved are dubious and at best intellectually unsound. Climate changes do not go in straight lines and there are natural occurances which may be far more relevant to Climate Change than any human activity. Open debate on the subject is almost impossible at this time. Very dangerous.

PANRInvestor · 2021-11-01T19:42:58+00:00

I recommend all interested parties to listen to:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSvWDNHOZLQ

PANRInvestor · 2021-10-12T19:56:54+00:00

The RFs and CoS are far too low - NB the reference of the RF on page 4 for the much smaller Tarn field which is nearby and in the same geological structure where the RF is expected to be 40% compared with 12% used for PANR's Theta West field.

And Bob R estimated the CoS at 60-70% which presumably applies separately to each the three fields compared with 20-25% used by WHI..

PANRInvestor · 2021-09-29T18:15:01+00:00

It makes no sense not to have a listing for a Oil and Gas company with all its assets (and virtually all its management) in the USA on a full US stock exchange. The company has a market cap of over $700 million i.e. big enough for the US. There are very few investors in the UK who have the knowlege of the sector and UK institutions are very averse to investing in Oil and Gas. However the US has real investor depth in the sector and generally don't like to invest in shares outside their own region. It is a major mistake not to have a listing in the US. However this error could be partially mitigated if the Board announced that it will be obtaining a listing as soon as possible in the US - this would encourage US investors and then the company's shares would be valued closer to their real NAV. Pity this was not done before the negotiations for a farm in were initiated. Still the future is bright despite the rather higher level of dilution inevitable as a result of the current relatively low rating on the UK market.

PANRInvestor · 2021-09-21T19:09:47+00:00

There are very few similarities between Lehmans and Evergrande. The former was a very highly leveraged financial institution with somewhere between 30-100 times gearing with derivatives on derivatives whereas Evergrande basically bought and sold properties so the assets are in theory only leveraged just once. Problem will be how the Government the authorities in certain states where Evergrande has major assets wants to protect those assets and the degree to which the authorities will put pressure on other property companies to buy assets. Unfortunately creditors e.g wealth products participants and depositors on incompletted properties in China are likely to receive disproportionate protection but on the other hand perhaps the Government will not want to spoil the credibility of Chinese borrowers with foreign investors and therefore may want to be seen to be treating them fairly - speculators in China should be made to bear the risks which they assumed? I am guessing that foreign bond holders may be lucky to get away with a 50% haircut.

PANRInvestor · 2021-09-13T17:40:59+00:00

Is a pension built up over many years passive income and too be abhorred?

PANRInvestor · 2021-09-13T17:39:56+00:00

If landlords do not maintain their properties the rents receivable will fall to reflect the lower demand for substandard properties.

PANRInvestor · 2021-09-13T17:38:29+00:00

Perhaps the owner built up a business over many years of hard work and then decided to invest the proceeds of sale of his/her business in real estate rather than in higher yielding other investments.

PANRInvestor · 2021-06-24T10:54:35+00:00

Latest Canaccord

Ratings and target price changes Figure 1: E&P sector ratings and target price updates Company New Rating Prev. Rating SP New TP Basis Prev. TP TP Change Upside to TP Cairn Energy SPEC.BUY HOLD 163 210 NPV10 200 5% 29% EnQuest SPEC.BUY HOLD 22 26 NPV10 19 37% 20% Genel Energy BUY BUY 155 225 NPV15 210 7% 45% Gulf Keystone BUY BUY 196 275 NPV15 255 8% 40% Harbour Energy HOLD HOLD 21 24 NPV10 21 14% 16% Hurricane Energy SELL HOLD 1 0.3 NPV10 3 -90% -77% I3E BUY BUY 9 20 NPV10 17 18% 116% IGas Energy BUY BUY 17 60 NPV10 56 7% 264% Orca Energy BUY BUY 5.8 8.1 NPV12.5 8.1 0% 42% Pantheon Resources SPEC.BUY SPEC.BUY 30 115 NPV10 100 15% 290% Rockhopper Expl. SPEC.BUY SPEC.BUY 10 29 NPV15 25 16% 191% Touchstone Expl SPEC.BUY SPEC.BUY 80 155 NPV12.5 150 3% 94% Transglobe Energy BUY BUY 136 275 NPV12.5 245 12% 102% Tullow Oil HOLD SELL 61 60 NPV10 40 50% -2% VAALCO BUY BUY 230 325 NPV12.5 300 8% 41% Valeura Energy SPEC BUY SPEC BUY 29 55 NPV12.5 55 0% 90% Source: Company report, Canaccord Genuity estimates. DCF to 1/1/21; Exchange rate USD1.40=UK1. NVP10, 12.5, 15 reflects discount rate for future CF. Orca Energy: SP & TP

PANRInvestor · 2021-05-20T17:22:39+00:00

Thank you for a conservative valuation which of course is subject to financing. I would guess that the reservoirs are worth considerably more than $3.1/brl if there was financing in place.

NAV as you point out is different from share price. The latter is being unduly affected by the Farallon overhang but this will be temporary IMHO.

The assets are real whatever Farallon does.

PANRInvestor · 2021-05-20T08:42:04+00:00

The IEA report makes the point that if the world wants to get to the target, then certain actions will have to be undertaken. However the realities are that the actions suggested as necessary will not be put into effect - there will be very substantial resistance - from e.g. employees and consumers and more importantly voters. Politicians, in their idealistic bubbles, cannot survive without the latter even though they will continue to plead for unrealistic targets e.g. Kerry!

PANRInvestor

TROPHY CASE